Multiple polls show Democrat Angela Alsobrooks leading Republican Larry Hogan in the race to represent Maryland in the U.S. Senate, as early in-person voting begins across the state Thursday.

Some 52% of likely voters chose Alsobrooks and 40% chose Hogan, according to a poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted Oct. 17 through Oct. 22 on behalf of The Washington Post and the University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement.

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Similarly, an Emerson College poll showed Alsobrooks with a 14-point lead, as 54% of likely voters chose her, compared to 40% support for Hogan. The survey of 865 likely Maryland voters was conducted Oct. 19 through Oct. 21.

The margin of error for the Emerson College poll is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

“What you’re seeing now is, sort of, partisans coming home, which is often what you get toward Election Day,” Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland, told The Baltimore Sun in an interview Thursday. “In Maryland, that naturally favors the Democrats.”

Roger Hartley, the dean of the University of Baltimore’s College of Public Affairs, said the way that this race has been nationalized — especially with former President Donald Trump at the top of the Republican ticket — has played well for Alsobrooks because “if some people think Trump might win, they’re going to be very, very uncomfortable with the Senate” under Republican control.

Hartley also noted that Hogan, who ran two successful gubernatorial campaigns during midterm election years, is up against a more challenging electorate in this race.

“In this case, I think Larry Hogan is getting hit with a blue tidal wave that he didn’t get hit with in his gubernatorial elections because not as many people vote in those elections,” he said.

Alsobrooks leads Hogan overall, but her favorability lags

While Alsobrooks is up, overall, the poll from The Washington Post and the University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement shows that her favorability still lags behind Hogan.

He polled at 51%, and she polled at 46%.

If elected, Alsobrooks would be the first Black woman to represent Maryland in the U.S. Senate. She and Hogan are vying for the currently seat held by U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin, a Democrat who is retiring after decades in public office.

The Hogan and Alsobrooks campaigns are being closely monitored nationally as a race that could determine Senate control and, ultimately, the future of abortion access in the United States.

Since her campaign’s start, Alsobrooks has positioned herself as a champion for reproductive rights.

Earlier this year, Hogan, who vetoed abortion access legislation during his second term as governor, said it’s “not necessary” to enshrine abortion access into the state constitution but that he would not vote for a federal ban, if elected.

He publicly announced that he is in favor of federally codifying abortion access after the May primary election.

According to the poll from The Washington Post and the University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement, 49% of likely voters think that Hogan, if elected, would support the policies of Republican leaders over 38% who think he would act independently. Some 23% of those polled believe he would mainly support abortion rights, while 31% think he would mainly support restrictions.

Eberly said that Republicans normally lose by a 25- to 30-point margin in Maryland races, but he doesn’t expect that with Hogan.

“Hogan will likely lose. He’ll lose by much less than a Republican typically does, but to be a Republican running for a Senate seat in a presidential election year when Donald Trump is at the top of the ballot for Republicans … this was always going to be a heavy lift for a Republican. Hogan is the only one, realistically, who could have made the lift, but I think it’s too much of a distance to close,” he said.

Eberly also said he sees this as a continuation of the blowback from the 2022 U.S. Supreme Court decision Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, the case that overturned Roe v. Wade.

“This is just an example of the Dobbs decision continuing to hurt Republicans — even Republicans who might otherwise do well in blue states,” he said.

Maryland is among a dozen states that have abortion on the ballot this election cycle.

Voters statewide will see Question 1 on their ballots, which will amend Maryland’s constitution to guarantee “every person … the fundamental right to reproductive freedom,” including the ability to “prevent, continue or end one’s own pregnancy” without interference from the state.

Though the word “abortion” is not explicitly used in the question, it is an implied protection under the right to end a pregnancy.

Hartley said that the question being on the ballot will help Alsobrooks more than Hogan.

“Democrats are going to protect that right, Republicans are not,” he said. “Especially at a time when Republicans are deemed by most to have taken it away.”

Early in-person voting will be conducted in Maryland from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Oct. 24 through Oct. 31. Early voting centers can be found on the Maryland State Board of Elections website.