Americans will be voting on just over 150 ballot measures in 41 states this election, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Abortion is likely to be the ballot issue that has the greatest impact on voters and other races, including the big one for president. Voters in 10 states will decide on 11 abortion initiatives.
KFF, an independent source for health policy research and polling, said all but one of the measures would protect the right to abortion.
There are competing measures in Nebraska. One establishes the right to abortion before fetal viability or when needed to protect the life or health of the mother. The other prohibits abortion in the second and third trimesters except in the case of a medical emergency, sexual assault, or incest.
Abortion is also on the ballot in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota. Two of those states, Arizona and Nevada, are among the seven swing states that are likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election.
The abortion measures could be to the advantage of Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump in what’s looking to be an incredibly close race.
“I think it impacts voter turnout, and I think that it creates a narrative that this is what this election is about, and that is to the benefit of Harris and not to Trump,” said Todd Belt, the political management program director at George Washington University.
Abortion is the No. 2 issue for voters, behind only the economy, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll. That poll, along with others, showed voters trust Harris over Trump on the abortion issue. In the Times/Siena College poll, 55% of voters trusted Harris to do a better job on the abortion issue. Thirty-nine percent trusted Trump more.
Since Roe v. Wade was overturned, voters in six states have weighed in on abortion amendments. Each time, the side favoring access to abortion prevailed.
Anne Whitesell, an assistant professor of political science at Miami University in Ohio, said abortion ballot initiatives have the potential to generate voter interest outside of the presidential race. Given what’s happened in the six states that have already voted on abortion, we’re likely to see those motivated this election by the abortion issue largely on the side of allowing access to abortion.
“It might get people off the couch, get people out of the house to vote in favor of abortion rights. And my guess is those people would be likely to vote for Harris,” Whitesell said.
She said abortion measures should safely pass in blue states such as Colorado, Maryland, and New York. We’ll see how voters react in conservative states like Missouri, Montana, and South Dakota.
Whitesell said Florida voters might have the toughest road to pass abortion protections because of a 60% threshold needed. Her state, Ohio, passed abortion protections last year with 57% support.
Florida also has legalized recreational marijuana on the ballot, along with North Dakota and South Dakota.
Belt said there’s an electoral strategy at play, especially with the abortion measures. Democrats hope to activate people who might not care too much about the presidential candidates and get some carryover support from those who want to protect abortion access.
The margins in Arizona might not be close enough to matter, where Belt thinks Trump could prevail. Nevada might be a different story, he said.
An issue that, on the flip side, could mobilize conservative voters is prohibiting noncitizens from voting. That’s on the ballot in eight states: Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Wisconsin.
The NCSL says a record number of statewide ballot measures on ranked-choice voting will be decided in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Missouri, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington, D.C.
There are two dozen election-related ballot measures on topics ranging from multi-party primaries, absentee voting, and citizen voting requirements in 19 states and Washington, D.C.
Voters will weigh in on three gambling measures, including two in Missouri. “Show Me State” voters will decide on sports betting and riverboat gambling initiatives. Whitesell said abortion, and maybe the issue of recreational marijuana, has the power to drive voter enthusiasm.
“Most Americans already have an opinion about abortion,” she said. “They already have an opinion about marijuana.”
Voters might not have the same strong opinions that drive them to the polls over some of the other measures, such as those focused on election rules, she said.
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