Kevin Willard is not one to brag too much about his Maryland men’s basketball team. But even he can’t overlook the signs of success the team has forged thus far.

“I think we’re playing good basketball,” he said the day before a pivotal challenge on Wednesday against Big Ten leader Michigan State. “I think we can get better. … Maybe my biggest worry is, we just haven’t been able to practice quite as much as we’d like to. But as far as where we are, I like where we are.”

There’s much to be excited about the Terps this winter. At 22-7 overall and 12-6 in the conference, they are tied for third place in the league and moved up from No. 16 to 13 in Monday’s Associated Press Top 25 Poll.

If the season ended today, Maryland would concede the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis to No. 18 Purdue (20-9, 12-6) because of a head-to-head tiebreaker stemming from an 83-78 loss at the Boilermakers on Dec. 4. But the Terps would earn the No. 4 seed over No. 12 Wisconsin (22-7, 12-6) courtesy of a 76-68 victory over the Badgers on Jan. 29.

The difference between the Nos. 4, 5 and 6 seeds is critical because the No. 4 seed gets a double bye to the tournament quarterfinals and would not have to play until Friday, March 14. Meanwhile, the No. 5 seed is scheduled to play in the second round on Thursday, March 13 at approximately 2:30 p.m., while the No. 6 seed would play that same day at approximately 9 p.m.

Count Spartans coach Tom Izzo as one opponent who might prefer not to see the Terps in the league tournament.

“That is a difficult team to prepare for because they can beat you in different ways,” he said after Michigan State escaped College Park on Wednesday night with a 58-55 win thanks to junior shooting guard Tre Holloman’s buzzer-beating half-court 3-pointer. “And then if you get by the defense, they can beat you with their press and [by] turning you over. … This team is going to win a lot of games. Trust me, they’re going to win a lot of games.”

With two games left in the regular season, here is what the postseason picture could look like for Maryland:

Scenario No. 1: Win out

The Terps would finish with no worse than the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament if it beats No. 17 Michigan on Wednesday and Northwestern on Saturday. If Purdue splits its final two games against Rutgers (14-15, 7-11) on Tuesday and Illinois (19-11, 11-8) on Friday or drops both, the Terps would leapfrog the Boilermakers for No. 3. If Purdue splits or drops its two games and the Wolverines (22-7, 14-4) lose to Maryland and the No. 8 Spartans (24-5, 15-3) on Sunday, the Terps would tie Michigan for second place and take No. 2 based on the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Scenario No. 2: Split the last two games

Maryland would finish with a seed between Nos. 3 and 5. The Terps would be the No. 3 seed if Purdue loses both its games and Wisconsin does not beat Minnesota (15-14, 7-11) on Wednesday and Penn State (15-15, 5-14) on Saturday. Maryland would remain at No. 4 if the Boilermakers split their games and the Badgers lose one of their final two games. The Terps would drop to No. 5 if Purdue goes at least 1-1 and Wisconsin wins out.

Scenario No. 3: Lose out

The Terps would finish with the No. 4, 5 or 6 seed. They could not overtake Purdue for No. 3 even if the Boilermakers also went 0-2 for the reasons mentioned above. Wisconsin would pass Maryland for No. 4 by splitting its games, and UCLA (20-9, 11-7) would overtake the Terps for No. 5 by defeating Northwestern on Monday and Southern California (14-15, 6-12) on Saturday.

The Terps were the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament once in 2015 and lost to No. 3 Michigan State in the semifinals. They were the No. 3 seed twice with the last time occurring in 2017 when they were upset by No. 6 Northwestern in the quarterfinals.

Maryland has never earned the No. 4 seed in the league tournament and was the No. 5 seed once in 2019 when it was stunned by No. 13 Nebraska in the second round. The program has yet to advance to the title game.

Wednesday’s task is defeating a Michigan squad that was throttled by Illinois, 93-73, on Sunday, but is 13-2 at home. Former Terps small forward and current Maryland Sports Radio Network sideline analyst Walt Williams pointed out that the Terps have won five of their past six games and three of their past four away from Xfinity Center.

“In my opinion, they just need to continue to do what they’re doing,” he said. “They’re finishing strong, and they’re playing their best basketball right now. That Ohio State game [a 73-70 loss on Feb. 5], that was a little bit of an outlier. They were not as solid or in tune, especially on the defensive end, as they typically are. But I think they’re playing their best basketball right now. They just have to finish out the season with a nice win streak.”

Much has been made about the starting five. Freshman center Derik Queen (15.9 points per game), junior point guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie (15.1), sophomore shooting guard Rodney Rice (13.7), senior power forward Julian Reese (13.3) and graduate student small forward Selton Miguel (11.9) – dubbed the Crab Five – have combined for a scoring average of 69.9 points that is tops among major conference programs and scored in double digits in six games so far, which is the most of any Power Four team.

Former Michigan coach and Big Ten Network analyst John Beilein questioned whether the Terps can rely on their starting five to make up for a lack of scoring from the bench for three or four consecutive days in the conference tournament. But he said the team’s recipe thus far could work in the NCAA Tournament where it would need to play only two games per weekend.

“I think Maryland at the beginning of the year played a lot of good teams,” he said. “I can’t explain the Washington loss [75-69 on Jan. 2], but it does happen on the road. But I think if they can stay together, that’s their formula.”

The program is enjoying enviable success and attention during Willard’s three-year tenure, and the positive vibes around the team are hard to ignore.

“It’s an exciting time,” Willard said during an episode of the Talkin’ Terps radio broadcast on Feb. 24. “The next two weeks are great. We have four games left. You can talk about seedings for the NCAA Tournament and seedings for the Big Ten Tournament, and this is the time of year you live for.”

Have a news tip? Contact Edward Lee at eklee@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/EdwardLeeSun.