The Ravens handled the woeful Browns, 35-10, to clinch a repeat AFC North title. The Steelers fell to the Bengals to finish their regular season on a four-game losing streak.
Who will have the advantage when these enduring rivals meet in the wild-card round of the playoffs tonight at M&T Bank Stadium?
Ravens passing game vs. Steelers pass defense
Lamar Jackson finally played well against the Steelers in the Ravens’ 34-17 win on Dec. 21, completing 15 of 23 passes for 207 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. It was hardly Jackson’s gaudiest passing line in a magnificent season that could land him his third NFL Most Valuable Player award, but it represented significant progress against the opponent that has bothered him more than any other. This time, Jackson will have to do it without Pro Bowl wide receiver Zay Flowers, who led the team with five catches for 100 yards in the December victory over Pittsburgh. Flowers hurt his knee in the regular-season finale against Cleveland. Coach John Harbaugh said the injury isn’t season-ending, but that might just mean Flowers could make it back for the divisional round or the AFC championship game. With him out, wide receiver Rashod Bateman (16.8 yards per catch, nine touchdowns) and tight end Isaiah Likely (11.4 yards per catch, six touchdowns) needs to step into a bigger role.
Tight end Mark Andrews has caught a touchdown pass in six straight games, so he’ll be Jackson’s first look in the red zone no matter what. The Ravens easily led the league in yards per play and passing DVOA, indications of just how efficient they are with and without Flowers on the field. They scored touchdowns on a league-best 74.2% of their red-zone possessions and ranked No. 3 in third-down efficiency. It’s an offense that both moves in chunks and finishes drives.
The Ravens will try to keep rolling against a Pittsburgh defense that will be healthier than it was in the last meeting, with only starting cornerback Donte Jackson uncertain to play because of a pinched nerve in his back. Defensive end Larry Ogunjobi and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. will be back in the lineup. It’s all about the pass rush for this defense, which features three dangerous edge rushers in T.J. Watt (11 1/2 sacks, 27 quarterback hits, league-best six forced fumbles), Alex Highsmith (six sacks in 11 games) and Nick Herbig and one of the sport’s interior superstars in venerable defensive tackle Cam Heyward (eight sacks, 11 passes defended). The Ravens did a good job limiting that crew to one sack and no quarterback hits in December.
The best way to gouge Pittsburgh is by operating quickly, which isn’t always Jackson’s modus operandi. Will the Ravens try to force tempo, or will they simply trust their quarterback’s instincts on when to extend plays and look downfield? The Steelers lead the league in takeaways, and veteran ballhawk Minkah Fitzpatrick took advantage of miscommunication between Jackson and Bateman for an interception that could have loomed large in the December matchup (had Marlon Humphrey not immediately answered with a pick-six). The Steelers rank No. 2 in third-down defense, so the Ravens will need to avoid third-and-long. Vulnerable as this defense looked during a four-game losing streak to close the season, that stretch belied how dangerous Pittsburgh still is.
EDGE: Ravens
Steelers passing game vs. Ravens pass defense
When the Steelers rolled through the middle of the season, quarterback Russell Wilson’s efficiency on deep balls, especially to wide receiver George Pickens, was a major reason. That weapon has largely disappeared from Pittsburgh’s arsenal over the past four weeks, with Wilson throwing just four touchdown passes and two interceptions during the losing streak that cost the Steelers an AFC North title. Wilson averaged a season-high 11.29 yards per attempt in a Dec. 1 win over the Bengals. He plummeted to 4.8 yards per attempt in the regular season finale against Cincinnati.
Pickens (15.3 yards per catch) did not play in the last game against the Ravens, and his injury was initially viewed as the reason for the dip in explosiveness, but he caught just four passes on 13 targets for 50 yards after returning on Christmas. If the Steelers can’t get Pickens going, Wilson won’t have much chance to scare the Ravens. Tight end Pat Freiermuth (653 yards, seven touchdowns) and wide receiver Calvin Austin III are solid, but they’re not going to take the top off a defense. Wide receiver Mike Williams hasn’t factored heavily since Pittsburgh picked him up at midseason. Wilson’s best bet might be to pick on Ravens cornerback Brandon Stephens with his patented moon balls, hoping to draw a downfield interference call or two.
Because Wilson holds the ball as he probes for deep targets, the Ravens — second in the league with 54 sacks — will have chances to get to him, especially given Pittsburgh’s weaknesses on the right side of its offensive line. That starts with edge rushers Kyle Van Noy and Odafe Oweh, who both reached double digits in sacks, but it was reserve outside linebacker David Ojabo’s pressure that helped set up Humphrey’s crucial pick-six in the last matchup.
Ravens defensive coordinator Zach Orr was prophetic when he said takeaways would be the element to push his improving unit over the top. Humphrey’s interception and safety Ar’Darius Washington’s forced fumble on Wilson near the goal line were perhaps the biggest plays in the win over Pittsburgh. Rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins got in on the pick-six fun against Cleveland. The Ravens’ defense went from one of the worst in the league over the first 10 games to one of the best over the last seven, a transformation that coincided with them inserting Washington as a starter and pulling Pro Bowl safety Kyle Hamilton back from the line of scrimmage. Their reconfigured secondary stopped bleeding explosive plays, a trend the Ravens will need to continue Saturday given Wilson’s tendencies. The Steelers rank 29th in red-zone efficiency and 15th on third down.
EDGE: Ravens
Ravens running game vs. Steelers run defense
The Ravens went right at the Steelers with Derrick Henry in December, hammering them for 220 rushing yards, 63 more than anyone else managed against Pittsburgh all season. That was after they largely abandoned the run in the second half of their 18-16 loss in Pittsburgh. It would be a shock if Henry (1,921 yards, 5.9 per carry, 16 touchdowns) isn’t a major part of the game plan Saturday given Flowers’ possible absence and the predicted frigid temperature at M&T Bank Stadium. Jackson managed just 22 yards on nine carries in the win over the Steelers, but the Ravens did find success going to third-down back Justice Hill as a change of pace. Hill has missed the last two games with a concussion and illness but is expected back Saturday. Jackson, of course, remains a unique weapon, having led the league at 6.6 yards per carry and passed Michael Vick as the most prolific running quarterback in league history.
Pittsburgh will try to present stouter resistance to Henry with help from hard-hitting safety DeShon Elliott, who did not play against his former team in the last meeting. Former Ravens linebacker Patrick Queen will also be amped up to play better than he did in that defeat. It will be interesting to see how much the Ravens lean on zone-concept runs to create space for Henry. Pittsburgh’s top pass rushers, Watt, Heyward and Highsmith, also excel against the run, with Watt just as apt to strip a running back as Jackson. Fumble luck went the Ravens’ way when they beat the Steelers three weeks ago, but they need to keep the ball off the ground.
EDGE: Ravens
Steelers running game vs. Ravens run defense
The Steelers quietly ran well with 117 yards on 24 carries in their loss in Baltimore. Pittsburgh always goes back to the ground (fourth in the league in attempts), even when its efficiency (4.1 yards per carry) isn’t great. Najee Harris (1,043 yard, four per carry) is the No. 1 option, but the Ravens will also see plenty of Jaylen Warren, who dipped from 5.3 yards per carry last year to 4.3 this year.
The Ravens allowed the fewest yards per game and per carry in the league, and they’ll have all their key run defenders Saturday, including nose tackle Michael Pierce, who played just 13 snaps in the last meeting. Leading tackler Roquan Smith struggled in that game, and he’ll need to be sharper to prevent Harris and Warren from hurting the Ravens early. It’s a tribute to Hamilton and Washington that the Ravens have improved so much on the back end without sacrificing their physicality against the run.
EDGE: Ravens
Ravens special teams vs. Steelers special teams
The Ravens averted disaster when they recovered a pair of special teams fumbles in the last meeting with Pittsburgh. They’re still sorting out their return game, though Steven Sims has been the starting punt returner since the Ravens claimed him off waivers, and Keaton Mitchell ran a kickoff back 47 yards against Cleveland. Justin Tucker, 1-for-3 on field goal attempts in the loss in Pittsburgh, has not missed in the Ravens’ four wins since their bye week. Will he be tested on a clutch kick in potentially difficult weather conditions Saturday?
The Ravens certainly can’t count on Pittsburgh’s Chris Boswell missing. He made 41 of 44 field-goal attempts this season, including 13 of 15 from 50 yards and beyond. Punter Corliss Waitman has also excelled since he stepped in for inured Cameron Johnston. The Steelers have averaged just 23 yards per kickoff return while allowing 28.9 yards per kickoff return, but that’s the only weakness in an excellent special teams group.
EDGE: Steelers
Ravens intangibles vs. Steelers intangibles
Did Jackson and the Ravens cast off their Pittsburgh albatross by surviving a few tense moments to win by 17 in December? Or is the Steelers’ 8-2 record over the last 10 games in the rivalry still a source of anxiety for the AFC North champions. Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin have banged heads for 17 years, matching up more than any coaches since Curly Lambeau and George Halas, so there won’t be a lot of tactical surprises. Will the Ravens find an offensive flow without Flowers? Or will the Steelers ugly things up as they have in so many close wins over Baltimore?
The Ravens earned home-field advantage and deserve to be favored (though perhaps not by 10 points) after racing past the slumping Steelers over the last four weeks of the regular season. If late-season form is telling, they’ll win comfortably. But Tomlin will spend the week telling his players no one believes in them and that they’ve always stood up to the Ravens in difficult moments. The Ravens, meanwhile, know the venom that will spew toward Harbaugh and Jackson if they again come out flat as playoff favorites. The psychological layers in this one are fit for a Russian novel.
EDGE: Even