As state lawmakers embark on a new legislative session set to focus on how to fill a mounting budget deficit, a new statewide poll shows Marylanders remain widely opposed to a variety of potential tax increases.

Officials are expected to consider all kinds of options to address the nearly $3 billion hole for the fiscal year beginning July 1, including cuts to existing programs and previously passed-over measures that would raise corporate taxes, income taxes for higher earners and make changes to the state’s 6% sales tax.

But in a survey that echoes the results of other recent polling — as well as long-term trends of voters preferring not to part with more of their money to keep government spending flowing — at least three-quarters of all registered voters oppose hikes to income, sales or property taxes to address the problem.

“Given the economic concerns among voters highlighted constantly throughout the recent presidential campaign, not much enthusiasm exists among Marylanders for raising taxes as a way to deal with the deficit,” poll director Patrick Gonzales wrote in a statement released with the results.

The survey also found that Gov. Wes Moore, a Democrat who will present his budget plan next week, remains popular with most voters heading into the second half of his first four-year term. And, in a theoretical matchup against the candidate who could be his strongest potential opponent during his reelection in 2026, it found Moore to have an early double-digit edge over former Gov. Larry Hogan, if either man choose to run again.

The poll of 811 registered voters is effectively the first Maryland poll of a new two-year campaign period in which all statewide officials, members of the legislature and U.S. House members will be on the ballot. It was conducted Dec. 27 through Jan. 4 by the Annapolis-based Gonzales Research & Media Services. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The Maryland General Assembly will convene Wednesday for its annual 90-day session in Annapolis. Both the immediate deficit and a longer five-year forecast that includes billions of dollars in spending over expected revenue is set to ignite fierce debates in the State House, with advocates on all sides of the issue lining up to lobby for funding.

About 75% of voters oppose increasing either sales, income or property taxes to deal with the deficit, according to the poll, which asked about all three options individually. Increasing the 6% state sales tax had slightly higher support, 23%, than the others.

A separate statewide poll from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County found a plurality of 40% would like to keep government services and taxes roughly as they are now. About a third said they would like fewer government services if it meant reducing state taxes, and 15% said they would rather have more state government services even if it meant higher taxes.

State Senate President Bill Ferguson, a Baltimore Democrat, pushed back against tax proposals in 2024 but has indicated he would consider them this year. In an interview Monday, he reiterated he has a “very high bar” for those options, echoing a phrase Moore has also used often when talking about his willingness to consider tax hikes. House Speaker Adrienne A. Jones, a Baltimore County Democrat who has supported more aggressive measures, said Monday she plans to look at all options to raise additional revenue.

Gonzales indicated the decisions could have an impact in the next governor’s race. “[Hogan’s] prospects next year, should he decide to run, will be determined largely by events beyond his control,” Gonzales wrote in a statement released with the results. “If an aggressive ‘tax enhancement’ package is passed and signed into law this session, voters come New Year’s Day 2026 might be very resolute in their desire for a return to Governor Hogan’s 8 years in office.” Hogan is two months removed from a U.S. Senate campaign in which he lost to Democrat Angela Alsobrooks by 12 percentage points after being the first Republican reelected Maryland governor in 70 years. He has not indicated he’s considering running again for governor when Moore is up for reelection, though he would be legally allowed to do so after serving two consecutive terms and being out of office for four years.

While Hogan maintained high approval ratings in a state with more than twice as many Democrats as Republicans, Moore has also had consistently positive ratings in polls. The latest survey found 61% of Marylanders approve of his job performance and 28% disapprove — mirroring many similar surveys last year. Four of every five Democrats approve of the job he’s doing while a third of Republicans approve and half disapprove.

By region, voters in Baltimore City give the governor his highest marks — with 76% approving, compared to 59% in the Baltimore suburbs, 64% in the Washington, D.C. suburbs and 53% in more rural areas of the state, the poll found.

If an election between Moore and Hogan were held now, 52% would pick Moore and 38% would pick Hogan. That result would be a similar margin compared to the 55% who voted for Alsobrooks and the 43% who voted for Hogan in November. Moore frequently targeted Hogan as he became one of Alsobrooks’ most high-profile supporters. The two went back and forth on a few occasions, with Moore criticizing his predecessor over how he handled policies like abortion and transportation, and Hogan calling attention to some higher fees and taxes since Moore took over.

Have a news tip? Contact Sam Janesch at sjanesch@baltsun.com, 443-790-1734 and on X as @samjanesch.