Small pair pays off at WSPO Main Event
At the final table of the 2015 World Series of Poker Main Event, I had a stack of 27 million on Day 1, leaving me well behind the chip leader but in contention. With blinds at 250,000-500,000 plus a 50,000 ante, I was dealt 4h 4c under the gun.
I raised to 1.2 million. This was a little bigger than a standard raise, but at a seven-handed table, any pair is likely ahead, so I wasn't really looking for action.
Pierre Neuville called from middle position with Ac Kh. I thought this was too conservative. Neuville's hand was ahead of much of my range, and he was in reasonable shape against all my pairs other than A-A and K-K. He had been pretty tight, so a three-bet would have to be respected. And with his hand, he should have been very happy to get it all in with a five-bet shove if I chose to four-bet. I think he should have made a reasonable raise, as it would leave big pairs (A-A, K-K) in his range and would probably get the job done.
The Ks Qs 4d flop was terrific for me, hitting a huge portion of his range while giving me a set. It was, however, a very draw-heavy flop, so I needed to proceed with caution. I bet 1.6 million, just under half the pot.
I was certainly ahead here, and he would never fold any hand with a king or with two spades. Conversely, there was no bet I could make that would keep him around if he whiffed on the flop or had only an underpair.
When Neuville called, I knew his range was pretty limited. He could have had A-K, K-Q, K-J, A-Q or A-x spades. He also could have had A-J or A-10 with the As. I could discount the possibility that he had K-Q, as he would have been far more likely to raise that hand on a draw-heavy board. For him to just call with A-K was still a little tight but understandable on this board.
The Qd on the turn was good and bad. It gave me a full house, but it was also an action killer, as a bet would likely prompt him to fold any draws or high pairs.
I checked. He checked behind, which took all queens out of his range.
The 3s on the river was a good card for me. A bet here could look like a bluffed flush, and he may well have hit a flush draw. So, with his range now limited to A-x spades, A-K and K-J, how much could I extract? The pot was just over 6.7 million, and Neuville had 11.5 million behind. Too much and I'd chase out A-K and K-J (and maybe even a flush with the paired board). If he was deeper, an overbet of 7-8 million could look suspicious enough to get a hero call, but not here, especially since my bet-check-bet was a pretty strong line.
I bet over half the pot, about 35 percent of his stack. He called and then mucked his Ac Kh when I showed my full house.
This hand put me into second place ahead of Zvi Stern, and it crippled Neuville, who was the next player to bust, finishing seventh. It served as a good example of how to play small pairs in big-stack events when you are playing shorthanded.