HOUSTON — In the wake of his second home run in four games and the Orioles’ first win in Houston since 2015, rookie shortstop Richie Martin offered an intriguing belief Saturday.

“We have such a good team,” Martin said. “Think of all the one-run games, close games that could’ve gone our way. Think if we win half of those, and we’re right in the mix.”

After going 2-4 in their road trip through Texas, the Orioles are 20-45, tied with the Kansas City Royals for the worst record in baseball. They are 20 1/2 games behind the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East standings, and they sit an only slightly less cumbersome 14 1/2 games out of the second AL wild-card spot. It is a large leap from where they are to playoff contention.

So, how true is Martin’s statement? That depends on what’s classified as a close game. In one-run contests, the Orioles are 6-9, with three of those losses coming on this Texas road trip, so flipping roughly half of those defeats would optimistically be five more wins. Although those victories would keep the Orioles from being the worst team in baseball, they would still be in the majors’ bottom five.

That’s not nearly enough to justify “right in the mix.” The Orioles, though, have suffered 10 losses by two runs and six by three runs, so 25 of their 45 defeats have been in games decided by three runs or fewer. Turn 13 of those into wins, and the Orioles would be 33-32. They would go from fifth to fourth in the AL East and still have three teams between them and the second wild-card spot, but that’s certainly a more competitive outlook in the standings than where they are now.

This can be stretched a little further, still. Orioles manager Brandon Hyde has said a couple of stouter middle relievers could’ve led to at least seven more wins for his team. Of their 20 losses by four or more runs, the Orioles trailed by only a run after six innings in four of them. Lump those games into the close losses, divide by two, and the Orioles would be 35-30. They would hold the second wild-card spot and be 5 1/2 games back in the AL East, a solid place to be through 65 games.

Of course, this is strictly hypothetical and occurs in a vacuum, one in which other teams’ records aren’t affected. In reality, the Orioles lost all of those games, and awarding them wins in half of those contests is extremely optimistic. Still, Hyde views it as a good sign that his club is within striking distance of a victory as often as it has been.

“Obviously, a lot of these guys can get a lot out of the kind of games we’re playing in,” Hyde said. “It’s a great experience for a lot of these guys to play in these close games on the road. We’ve been playing in a lot of close games really all year long, and I love that about our guys.

“We just have a hard time getting over the hump and winning close games. I think down the road when we continue to develop and continue through this process that we’re going through right now — we’re still early on in this process of starting something special — I think they’re gonna get better, and they’ll be better for it in the long run.”

Martin, a 24-year-old Rule 5 draft pick, is a player to whom this applies. Even if it takes some extremes to get his comment to be accurate, it’s a positive that he, a young player who has mostly struggled for a team at the bottom of the standings, hasn’t lost confidence in himself or the Orioles.

nruiz@baltsun.com

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