Baltimore Orioles fans headed to Oriole Park at Camden Yards may have been surprised recently to discover that it’s not so easy to get a seat on the light rail, usually one of the most convenient ways to get to and from the downtown ballpark. Why? Simply because the Maryland Transit Administration has been forced to sometimes use single-car trains packing riders in like sardines instead of the double- or even triple-car trains that once were standard during peak travel times. Rest assured it’s not part of some conspiracy by Yankees fans to keep O’s faithful out of the stands. It’s more likely a numbers problem. There aren’t enough cars in good working order to maintain that level of service.

One might chalk that up to poor game planning. The light rail line, which opened in 1992 (the same week as Camden Yards), has essentially reached the end of its service life. The fleet can’t be easily replaced as vehicle designs have changed in 30 years. The whole system needs to be rebuilt and modernized, bit by bit, and the MTA has a plan to do just that. But it will take time and money. So far, the Federal Transit Administration has provided $213 million for new cars, along with another $90 million from the state of Maryland and $127 million in matching federal aid. But upgrading the entire system will cost about $1.4 billion and state officials admit that the state’s Consolidated Transportation Program or CTP, its six-year capital budget, is at least $380 million short of that goal.

Unfortunately, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Recently, Maryland Transportation Secretary Paul Wiedefeld revealed that despite recent transportation-related fee increases approved by the Maryland General Assembly, the CTP shortfall is at least $1.3 billion. That means a lot of projects now on the drawing board are getting pushed aside. Local transit systems are getting hit (expect fewer low-emissions buses than originally anticipated) but so are highway and bridge projects including a high-profile project for the Washington, D.C., area — the proposed replacement of the Capital Beltway’s American Legion Bridge.

Why is this happening? There are a number of factors from less-than-anticipated transportation-related tax revenue to rising construction costs. The gas tax, the state’s biggest single source of transportation revenue, doesn’t produce as much money when people drive less (a product of post-COVID-19 commuting patterns) or opt for more fuel-efficient vehicles, including hybrid cars. That’s not to criticize those choices. Indeed, they ought to be encouraged. But there’s also the reality of a tax structure based on antiquated assumptions — the equivalent of paying for roads based on taxing hay or wooden carts. That might have worked in the 19th century when horse-and-buggies prevailed but not in the 21st.

So far, Gov. Wes Moore has been cautious, perhaps too cautious. His concern that Maryland families can’t afford any major tax increase right now — a view surely convenient for tax-wary politicians in the thick of an election season — resonates among his fellow Democrats. Lawmakers were only too happy to restore some local transportation funding in the last legislative session. That may have further shortchanged the state CTP, but it took some heat off local governments that might otherwise been forced to raise local taxes to meet their own transportation obligations. Marylanders are unlikely to see a change in strategy before the 2026 election (when Moore and state lawmakers are expected back on the ballot), let alone November.

That doesn’t bode well for Baltimore’s Red Line, a light rail project unceremoniously dumped by then-Gov. Larry Hogan but revived with much fanfare by Moore. Wiedefeld and others insist that the state has the money to design and plan a Woodlawn-to-Johns Hopkins Bayview line (a $152 million line item in the CTP). But to build the 14-mile east-west system at a cost of $2.9 billion or more? That money simply isn’t there. And while the current $1.3 billion CTP deficit is not necessarily unreasonable given the state anticipates a whopping $19 billion in transportation spending in the years ahead, it’s not likely the funds will magically appear at the end of the planning process.

This might be a good opportunity to hear from the Maryland Commission on Transportation Revenue and Infrastructure Needs, the task force the governor assembled last year to study long-term transportation goals and finances that is supposed to produce its findings by Jan. 1. If the gas tax is insufficient as more Americans choose greener vehicles, what might properly take its place? One of the best parts of the current system is that it’s user-based and those who benefit most (big trucks, frequent travelers, etc.) pay more to keep it in good repair. Can a sales tax or business tax or a portion of the property tax do the same?

We don’t have all the answers, but a lot of Marylanders are bound to ask these questions, particularly those unlucky souls stuck on overcrowded light rail cars: How exactly do we get out of this looming jam?