Early election totals offer insights beyond the winners and losers and into the changing voting behaviors among Marylanders.
A day after Election Day, election officials had counted 79% of all statewide votes, according to the Associated Press. The outstanding ballots included about 45% of the 646,413 mail-in ballots received ahead of Election Day, later arriving mail-ins and provisional ballots.
The State Board of Elections is scheduled to begin counting the remaining mail-ins on Thursday and the provisional ballots on Nov. 13, wrapping up all counts by Nov. 15, according to the board’s calendar.
Here are three aspects of the returns so far for Maryland and Baltimore-area jurisdictions to track as the remaining votes are counted through the end of next week.
Margins for Kamala Harris’ win in Maryland
A preliminary analysis of the estimated 79% of total Maryland votes that returns were available for shows that Vice President Kamala Harris’s winning margin had shrunk by 10.3 percentage points from President Joe Biden’s in 2020, mirroring a trend of counties across the U.S. shifting right.
Harris had just 60.2% of the vote Wednesday, or 1,485,253 votes. This was less than Biden’s 65.4% in 2020 which equaled nearly 2 million votes. Meanwhile, the share of votes for Donald Trump increased from 32.2% to 37.3%, though the number of votes for the president-elect was about 56,000 fewer.
The trend was similar across the state where all jurisdictions had margins that leaned more toward the Republican candidate than in 2020. In the Baltimore area, Carroll County had the largest shift in votes so far with the margin of Trump’s win increasing just over 10 percentage points from 2020.
Even Baltimore City, which had the second-highest share of votes for Harris in the state, saw a five-percentage-point decrease in her winning margin from Biden in 2020.
Ticket-splitting between Donald Trump and Larry Hogan
A statewide trend that became evident as returns trickled in on election night was ticket-splitting in the U.S. Senate and presidential contests. In the Senate race, Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan conceded to Democratic Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks on Tuesday night, but returns show the GOP nominee outperformed former President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket.
For the presidential election, just over 60% — or 1,485,253 votes — were for Harris, while Senator-elect Angela Alsobrooks received just 52.2% — 1,289,266 votes — in the state. Similarly, Trump had 37.3% of votes, while Hogan was more popular at 45.3%.
Allegany was the only county where Hogan didn’t outperform Trump in the share of votes as of Wednesday. Hogan outperformed Trump most in Howard County. While Harris and Alsobrooks won Howard, the difference in vote share was over 13 percentage points between Hogan and Trump.
The county with the second highest difference in share was Anne Arundel County, where the split-ticket voting was reflected in the results with Harris and Hogan winning. The only other county this happened in was Frederick.
Voter turnout
Just how this year’s election turnout will compare to the last few elections won’t be known until the remaining votes are counted, but as of Wednesday, returns for the presidential race showed nearly all counties were on track to record more votes than the 2020 presidential race.
All but one jurisdiction’s county votes — Baltimore City’s — were estimated to be higher this year. Estimated turnout for the presidential race was calculated by comparing the share of votes already counted as reported by AP to the number of votes as a share of 2020 votes. For Baltimore City, 168,972 votes were counted for president, which accounted 83% of votes so far, but was about 71% of 2020 turnout. Washington County was also the only jurisdiction where turnout for the presidential race surpassed 2020. The difference was by over 300 votes with 9% of votes left to count.