More Democrats in danger
The Democrats’ fragile hold on the Senate majority is likely to come down to the fates of a dirt farmer from northcentral Montana, a Rust Belt populist and a trio of senators from battleground states.
Less than five weeks out from Election Day, Montana’s Jon Tester and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown lead the list of Roll Call’s most vulnerable senators, followed by Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, Nevada’s Jacky Rosen and Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin. The ranking is based on extensive conversations with campaign insiders, party officials and independent election analysts.
Roll Call typically focuses on the 10 most endangered members in each chamber, but as has been true all cycle, the Senate list keeps thinning. Our first assessment in May 2023 of the landscape for this fall featured Democrat Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, independent Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Republican Mitt Romney of Utah; all have since announced their retirements. And our previous list, published in early May, was led by New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, who resigned in August after he was convicted on federal corruption charges.
Republicans need a net gain of two seats to take the majority next year — or one seat and control of the White House, since the vice president breaks ties. And with Manchin’s retirement, the GOP is all but guaranteed to pick up the seat in ruby-red West Virginia.
While our list looks only at vulnerable incumbents, there are several highprofile open seats whose outcomes will also shape the balance of power.
One of the biggest Senate battlegrounds is in Arizona, where Republican Kari Lake is running against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates that race Tilt Democratic.
In Michigan, Democratic Rep.
Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep.
Mike Rogers are vying for a seat being vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
Inside Elections also rates that race Tilt Democratic.
The GOP’s hopes in Maryland rest with former Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican who has been outspoken about his disagreements with presidential nominee Donald Trump. He’s facing Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in a race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen.
Benjamin L. Cardin. The contest is rated likely Democratic, a nod to the state’s deep-blue underpinnings.
There are two other races worth keeping an eye on as the campaign season winds down.
Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico was showing signs he might be vulnerable in his reelection battle against Republican Nella Domenici, the former chief financial officer of a hedge fund and daughter of former Sen. Pete Domenici. Heinrich was among the Democrats publicly calling for President Joe Biden to drop his reelection bid. But Biden’s exit from the presidential race is seen as giving some down-ballot Democrats, such as Heinrich, a lift.
And in Nebraska, union leader Dan Osborn is waging a nonpartisan campaign to unseat Republican Sen.
Deb Fischer. A poll by Split Ticket and SurveyUSA found the race essentially deadlocked, with Fischer at 39 percent and Osborn at 38 percent. But Fischer had $3 million on hand as of June 30, compared with $650,000 for Osborn.
The race in a state Trump carried by 19 points in 2020 is rated solid Republican.
1. John Tester, D-Mont: Tester narrowly defeated a GOP incumbent in 2006, but since then, Montana has grown redder even as Tester has won by more comfortable margins. This year, he faces Republican businessman Tim Sheehy. Arecent AARP poll showed Tester trailing Sheehy by 8 percentage points. Tester had $10.9 million on hand at the end of June, while Sheehy had $3.3 million. Sheehy has already put $2.6 million of his own money into the race. Republicans have cast Tester as a D.C. insider who walks in lockstep with his party, while Democrats have portrayed Sheehy as a wealthy and BY THE NUMBERS 19 seats Republicans up for re-election 11 seats Democrats up for re-election untested candidate with weak ties to Montana who used racist stereotypes about the state’s Indigenous people.
2. Sherrod Brown-D-Ohio: Democrats are counting on ticket-splitters and Brown’s personal brand to boost him over Republican businessman Bernie Moreno in a state that’s expected to back Trump. Brown, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, has raised $53 million so far this cycle, the most of any endangered Senate Democrat.
He had $10.7 million on hand to $4.5 million for Moreno. A recent Emerson College poll put Brown up by 2 points even as Vice President Kamala Harris was 10 points behind Trump.
3. Bob Casey, D-Pa.: Casey’s battle with Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund executive who loaned his campaign $4 million as of June 30, moves up one spot since last spring’s list. Most public polls still show Casey, who is seeking a fourth term, with a lead over his challenger. But McCormick had $8.3 million on hand at the end of June, nearly as much as Casey’s $8.4 million. As Republicans struggle to match Democrats’ spending advantage in other races, that could help McCormick in a state that both presidential campaigns are also aggressively targeting.
4. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev.: Rosen has appeared to be in a relatively strong position against Republican challenger Sam Brown, a retired Army captain.
And that was true even before President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race. Rosen’s maintained a roughly 10-point lead over Brown in multiple public polls, with a marginof-error race at the top of the ticket between Harris and Trump. Back at the end of June, Rosen had $9.5 million on hand, having brought in nearly $32 million. Brown had only $3 million on hand after raising $9.7 million.
5. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis.: Baldwin’s bid for a third term against Eric Hovde, the CEO of banking and real estate businesses who loaned his campaign $13 million as of July 24, remains competitive in a swing state that will also be hotly contested on the presidential level. The recent Marquette Law School poll found Baldwin leading Hovde, 52 percent to 47 percent, among likely voters when undecided voters were asked to pick. Baldwin has raised $36.5 million so far and had $6.3 million on July 24.
Less than five weeks out from Election Day, Montana’s Jon Tester and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown lead the list of Roll Call’s most vulnerable senators, followed by Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, Nevada’s Jacky Rosen and Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin. The ranking is based on extensive conversations with campaign insiders, party officials and independent election analysts.
Roll Call typically focuses on the 10 most endangered members in each chamber, but as has been true all cycle, the Senate list keeps thinning. Our first assessment in May 2023 of the landscape for this fall featured Democrat Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, independent Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Republican Mitt Romney of Utah; all have since announced their retirements. And our previous list, published in early May, was led by New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, who resigned in August after he was convicted on federal corruption charges.
Republicans need a net gain of two seats to take the majority next year — or one seat and control of the White House, since the vice president breaks ties. And with Manchin’s retirement, the GOP is all but guaranteed to pick up the seat in ruby-red West Virginia.
While our list looks only at vulnerable incumbents, there are several highprofile open seats whose outcomes will also shape the balance of power.
One of the biggest Senate battlegrounds is in Arizona, where Republican Kari Lake is running against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates that race Tilt Democratic.
In Michigan, Democratic Rep.
Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep.
Mike Rogers are vying for a seat being vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
Inside Elections also rates that race Tilt Democratic.
The GOP’s hopes in Maryland rest with former Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican who has been outspoken about his disagreements with presidential nominee Donald Trump. He’s facing Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in a race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen.
Benjamin L. Cardin. The contest is rated likely Democratic, a nod to the state’s deep-blue underpinnings.
There are two other races worth keeping an eye on as the campaign season winds down.
Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico was showing signs he might be vulnerable in his reelection battle against Republican Nella Domenici, the former chief financial officer of a hedge fund and daughter of former Sen. Pete Domenici. Heinrich was among the Democrats publicly calling for President Joe Biden to drop his reelection bid. But Biden’s exit from the presidential race is seen as giving some down-ballot Democrats, such as Heinrich, a lift.
And in Nebraska, union leader Dan Osborn is waging a nonpartisan campaign to unseat Republican Sen.
Deb Fischer. A poll by Split Ticket and SurveyUSA found the race essentially deadlocked, with Fischer at 39 percent and Osborn at 38 percent. But Fischer had $3 million on hand as of June 30, compared with $650,000 for Osborn.
The race in a state Trump carried by 19 points in 2020 is rated solid Republican.
1. John Tester, D-Mont: Tester narrowly defeated a GOP incumbent in 2006, but since then, Montana has grown redder even as Tester has won by more comfortable margins. This year, he faces Republican businessman Tim Sheehy. Arecent AARP poll showed Tester trailing Sheehy by 8 percentage points. Tester had $10.9 million on hand at the end of June, while Sheehy had $3.3 million. Sheehy has already put $2.6 million of his own money into the race. Republicans have cast Tester as a D.C. insider who walks in lockstep with his party, while Democrats have portrayed Sheehy as a wealthy and BY THE NUMBERS 19 seats Republicans up for re-election 11 seats Democrats up for re-election untested candidate with weak ties to Montana who used racist stereotypes about the state’s Indigenous people.
2. Sherrod Brown-D-Ohio: Democrats are counting on ticket-splitters and Brown’s personal brand to boost him over Republican businessman Bernie Moreno in a state that’s expected to back Trump. Brown, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, has raised $53 million so far this cycle, the most of any endangered Senate Democrat.
He had $10.7 million on hand to $4.5 million for Moreno. A recent Emerson College poll put Brown up by 2 points even as Vice President Kamala Harris was 10 points behind Trump.
3. Bob Casey, D-Pa.: Casey’s battle with Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund executive who loaned his campaign $4 million as of June 30, moves up one spot since last spring’s list. Most public polls still show Casey, who is seeking a fourth term, with a lead over his challenger. But McCormick had $8.3 million on hand at the end of June, nearly as much as Casey’s $8.4 million. As Republicans struggle to match Democrats’ spending advantage in other races, that could help McCormick in a state that both presidential campaigns are also aggressively targeting.
4. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev.: Rosen has appeared to be in a relatively strong position against Republican challenger Sam Brown, a retired Army captain.
And that was true even before President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race. Rosen’s maintained a roughly 10-point lead over Brown in multiple public polls, with a marginof-error race at the top of the ticket between Harris and Trump. Back at the end of June, Rosen had $9.5 million on hand, having brought in nearly $32 million. Brown had only $3 million on hand after raising $9.7 million.
5. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis.: Baldwin’s bid for a third term against Eric Hovde, the CEO of banking and real estate businesses who loaned his campaign $13 million as of July 24, remains competitive in a swing state that will also be hotly contested on the presidential level. The recent Marquette Law School poll found Baldwin leading Hovde, 52 percent to 47 percent, among likely voters when undecided voters were asked to pick. Baldwin has raised $36.5 million so far and had $6.3 million on July 24.
PREVIOUS ARTICLE
