The future of automotive transportation is electric. The transformation to electrified vehicles is actually already here.

Sales of internal combustion engine vehicles in the United States are down 20% since 2016 and lots of customers are choosing battery-powered EVs, plug-in hybrids and especially hybrid vehicles with a gas engine and electric motor.

This is true in Maryland, where electric miles are replacing petroleum miles at a rapid clip.

But there’s an old saying in the auto business: The customer is in charge.

So, it might come as a surprise that Maryland is on a path to ban the sale of new gas-powered vehicles — including most hybrids — by 2035.

Starting in model year 2027 (next year in the auto business), the law requires 43% of new vehicles sold in Maryland to be electric or zero-emission vehicles.

Maryland’s EV market share is about 12% today, so that’s a 3.5-fold increase next year.

The EV sales requirements get higher from there.

In model year 2028, 51% of vehicles must be electric; 59% in 2029; 68% in 2030 — until 2035 when the sale of new gas-powered vehicles will be prohibited, and 100% of new vehicle sales in Maryland must be electric.

How did a gas-vehicle ban happen?

There are two sets of vehicle emissions rules in the United States today. Washington and the Environmental Protection Agency oversee one program, and the California Air Resources Board oversees the other.

In a quirk of the Clean Air Act, states get a choice: follow the federal program (about 70%of the country does) or join the California program (the other 30%).

Maryland is one of 11 states that signed up for the California plan.

It will take a miracle for Maryland and most states following California to meet these EV sales requirements. Trying it will harm customers, dealers and automakers doing business in the state.

Dust off your high school math and you’ll see the numbers don’t add up.

Think of the EV sales requirements in Maryland as a ratio or a fraction.

In this case, the numerator is the number of EVs that must be sold each year. The denominator is the total number of vehicles sold annually.

Using recent EV sales trends (and remember — sales are growing), about 60,000 EVs are projected to be sold in Maryland in 2027 out of 300,000 total vehicles. That’s about 20% EV market share — but still 23 points short of the law’s requirement.

One option for automakers to achieve the required EV sales ratio? Shrink the pie.

In other words, sell fewer gas-powered vehicles in Maryland — about 160,000 fewer!

A smaller pie inflates the proportion of EV sales in the state and voila… the EV sales requirement is achieved.

That’s a recipe to depress economic activity, increase automobile prices and obliterate customer choice.

It will also send Maryland drivers who don’t want an EV (for whatever reason) to cross the border and buy a car in Pennsylvania or Virginia, states that don’t follow California.

All bad options for Maryland.

You can’t get ahead of the customer, and that’s where Maryland and this California-style EV sales mandate is — ahead of the customer. Not to mention the state’s charging infrastructure.

Virginia realized this and ditched the California program in 2024.

Passing a law that requires 100% electric vehicles in 10 years is easy. But there’s a massive gap between these EV sales requirements and a customer’s expectation they can still choose what kind of vehicle to drive.

The future is electric. But Maryland is not ready for these EV mandates.

For automakers, dealers and especially for Maryland drivers, Gov. Wes Moore should pull Maryland from California’s EV sales requirement.

John Bozzella is president and CEO of the Washington, D.C.-based Alliance for Automotive Innovation.