Trump, Clinton lead their fields
Poll shows trends among Maryland voters mirroring national preferences
Donald Trump is leading the Republican presidential field in Maryland and has broad support in a state where GOP voters have traditionally backed centrist, establishment candidates, a new poll for The Baltimore Sun and the University of Baltimore has found.
The New York businessman — who has tied the GOP in knots with an unorthodox campaign and a string of victories — has support from more than one-third of likely voters in Maryland's Republican primary. That represents a nine-point lead over the next closest competitor for the nomination, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, has a vast 33-point advantage over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders among Maryland's likely Democratic primary voters, a number that reflects the former secretary of state's strength with more diverse electorates and in closed primaries where only registered members of each party may cast a ballot.
Though its late-in-the-cycle April 26 election diminishes Maryland's status in the presidential nomination process, the poll underscores national narratives about Trump's appeal to a wide swath of Republican voters, from conservative evangelicals to blue-collar workers, and Clinton's strong support among African-Americans.
Trump is leading with men and women, rural voters and those who describe themselves as conservative, according to the poll. Cruz, who has emerged as Trump's most significant threat, does better among those who describe themselves as “very conservative” and voters under 35.
“Trump is picking up support across the political spectrum,” said Steve Raabe, president of OpinionWorks, the Annapolis-based firm that conducted the poll. “He's receiving support regardless of political philosophy.”
The poll, conducted from March 4 to March 7, has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
After winning the Michigan and Mississippi primaries on Tuesday with wide margins, Trump has captured more than one-third of the 1,237 delegates needed to claim the nomination at the party's convention this
Kasich finished third in the Maryland poll, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio came in last.
The poll may provide a measure of political cover to Gov. Larry Hogan, a centrist who has been under pressure from Democrats in the state to say whether he will support the real estate mogul if he wins the GOP nomination. Hogan supported and campaigned for Chris Christie until the New Jersey governor dropped out of the race last month.
Hogan has said he's “not endorsing anybody” in the primary.
In a measure of how Trump has threatened the political establishment, deep-pocketed groups like the conservative Club for Growth have blanketed the airwaves in key primary states such as Florida in a late bid to undermine him, or at least slow him down. Republican leaders in Washington have crafted plans to topple him at the party's convention.
That's just fine with John Norman, a 62-year-old Trump supporter from Finksburg. If anything, all the pushback on Trump from within the party makes him more appealing, Norman said.
“I don't like what the establishment is doing to him, so I'm going to vote for him,” the retired Baltimore police officer said. “People are tired of the lying; they're tired of the establishment. Trump is basically telling people what they want to hear.”
Thomas Dyer, a 48-year-old Elkridge man, said he respects the way Trump “calls a spade a spade,” but ultimately feels Cruz holds the more conservative positions on immigration, abortion and choosing nominees for the Supreme Court — an issue that has become more salient after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia in February.
“He sticks to what he believes, and doesn't kowtow,” Dyer said of Cruz, who rose to national prominence for helping to orchestrate the shutdown of the federal government in 2013 over his opposition to the federal health care law. “I think this country needs something that's a little bit different.”
In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2-1, the last Sun/UB poll in November found retired Johns Hopkins neurosurgeon Ben Carson leading Trump in the state where he spent much of his life. Carson dropped out of the race after a disappointing finish on Super Tuesday. Carson was expected to endorse Trump today, according to news organizations.
On the Democratic side, there's little indication that Sanders will be able to repeat the kind of upset he managed in Michigan when Marylanders head to the polls — assuming the race is still underway by late April. Seven in 10 African-American Democrats said they will support Clinton, though that number is slightly lower than the support she had with black voters in the November poll.
African-American turnout is a key factor in Maryland primary elections that can alter the outcome of statewide and local races. About 40 percent of Maryland's Democratic primary turnout in 2008 was African-American, and the poll assumes that black voters will make up about 39 percent of the electorate — a number that could be higher this year because of the competitive mayoral race in Baltimore.
“We're not going to be that much different than Georgia,” John T. Willis, a professor of government and public policy at the University of Baltimore, said of the African-American participation in the primary. “The real issue on the Democratic side is maintaining turnout both for the primary election and for the general election.”
Clinton, who lost to Barack Obama in Maryland in 2008 by nearly 25 points, has held wide leads in every poll conducted in the state this election cycle. She is winning with white and black voters, men and women, and every age group — including the millennials, who have flocked to Sanders' populist message elsewhere.
“She's in a really strong position, almost across the board,” Raabe said.
Delores Lashley, a 70-year-old Hanover woman, said she believes Clinton is well positioned to continue the policies pursued by Obama, who remains widely popular in Maryland. Lashley speculated that Sanders has done better with some voters because he doesn't have “the baggage” that came with the earlier Clinton White House.
But she nevertheless feels Clinton is the most qualified candidate.
“Look at her track record. I believe with Hillary the middle class will prosper again,” Lashley said. “I believe she has the wherewithal, the charisma, the brains and the moxie to know how to do it, and how do it right.”
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