Maryland’s multibillion-dollar budget shortfall was predicted

Gov. Wes Moore’s deputy legislative officer, Michael Thomas, from left, chief of staff Fagan Harris and Carmel Martin, special secretary of the Governor’s Office for Children, testify in favor of Moore’s legislation to alter the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future education reform plan. Hannah Gaskill/Staff

Financial pain is coming as Maryland faces a nearly $3 billion budget deficit due largely to public education spending.

The warning signs have been there for years, but many lawmakers in Annapolis appear to have looked the other way.

On Wednesday, lawmakers from the Maryland House and Senate met in Annapolis for a joint hearing to discuss Gov. Wes Moore’s proposed adjustments to the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future — the state’s multibillion-dollar education reform bill passed in 2021, almost two years before Moore, a Democrat, took office.

The Blueprint pumps $30 billion in additional tax dollars into public education over the first 10 years and $4 billion additional dollars every year after that. The law, in part, increases teacher salaries, expands Pre-K and doubles teacher collaboration time.

Now, with Maryland facing a nearly budget deficit, the massive cost of the Blueprint has come into question.

“The issues going on at the state with respect to the budget are some of the same issues going on at the county level,” said Sen. Ron Watson, a Democrat representing Prince George’s County.

But the financial strain inflicted by the Blueprint should not be a surprise. In fact, many predicted this day would come. Former Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, vetoed the bill, in 2020, in part saying it was too expensive.

“It was a bad idea as far as timing, even though we all support education reform,” former Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot, a Democrat, said in April 2020.

Franchot agreed with Hogan, saying the state cannot afford the Blueprint. Many Republican lawmakers also tried to blow the whistle.

“I think we have a lot more work ahead of us, that’s for sure,” said Baltimore County Republican Bob Long in April 2020.

A year later, in 2021, the Democrat super-majorities in the Maryland House and Senate overrode Hogan’s veto and passed the Blueprint into law. Soon after, local jurisdictions began feeling the pain as they tried to find the money to pay for the mandated increases in education spending.

“It was a gut punch,” Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott said in April 2023 after learning the city would need to fund its school system by an additional $79 million.

County leaders across the state have expressed similar concerns as the mandated spending increases have come due.

In 2024, Moody’s, the credit agency, took notice and issued its own warning for the state’s fiscal future by downgrading Maryland’s financial outlook to “negative” from “stable” — stating, “The negative outlook incorporates difficulties Maryland will face to achieve balanced financial operations in coming years.” One of the main drivers of financial issues, according to Moody, is public education spending.

Now, Moore has proposed changes to the Blueprint. In part, the governor recommends altering community school and special education funding while delaying the implementation of increased teacher collaborative time. These changes are being proposed in addition to tax and fee increases paid by Maryland residents.

If drastic changes are not made, Maryland’s projected budget deficit is expected to balloon in the coming years.

“My thought is why can’t we just take, and for a simple term refinance it, and start over and stretch it out,” added Del. Ric Metzgar, a Baltimore County Republican.

Sen. Paul Corderman, a Republican representing Washington and Frederick counties, added, “Obviously, we’re facing a budget crisis here, a deficit, that is.”

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