Preakness Day picks

RACE	ANALYSIS	FOR VALUE	WHAT TO BET
1 (10:30 a.m.)	Spring Quality rose too quickly through the class ranks and his finishes suffered. Takes a step back today where he should find the going much easier. Kaitain is a local horse, who also has been running with a bit better crowd. These two are the class of the field.	Look at Connemara Coast. He should be running late and will like the added distance today.	Go strong on Spring Quality to win and wheel him on top of ALL in exactas. You should get a decent price on him today, even as the favorite.
2 (11:05 a.m.)	Commend has been traveling all over the East Coast, taking on quality fields. His last two look bad on form but he just got in over his head. Compared to those tough outings, today’s race is a stroll in a field. Best Yes comes in off a win at a longer distance but had been running sprints before that. Is a bit cheaper than some of these but likes to win.	Tempt Me Twice has been running with slightly better fields, and has hit the board in three straight. He is a solid bet to hit the board again today and could win it if Commend does not fire.	Bet Tempt Me Twice to win. Wheel Commend and Tempt Me Twice over Ruth Less Blue, Commend, Tempt Me Twice and Best Yes in exacta and trifecta wagers.
3 (11:41 a.m.)	This field is packed full of horses looking for a return to form. Most have been descending the class ranks to find a good spot to win again. Seeing’n’believing took a big step down in class last time to snag an easy win. The same could be said for Cursive, who dropped all the way down to rock bottom claiming last time, but won very easily. If he can hold that form today he can compete.	Balabusta could represent the sole speed in the race, and this bunch is not a group that can close well late. Could execute a steal.	There is no clear choice in this weak field. Spread your bets. Box Cursive, Seeing’n’believing, Flight Pattern and Balabusta in exacta and trifecta wagers.
4 (12:16 p.m.)	Mr. Dougie Fresh broke his maiden among the best horses of any of this lot. Shipping from New York to the Maryland circuit should improve his chances today. Super Dude has just one race but it was a winner, among decent maidens. Small step up today to take on other winners.	Confederate broke his maiden at PARX but has competed well at Churchill. Drops back down in class today where he should find the going much softer.	This one is pretty wide open, so take a stab at Confederate to win. His odds will stay juicy. Wheel Confederate and Mr. Dougie Fresh over Confederate, Mr. Dougie Fresh, Super Dude and Jamminwithbrandon.
5 (12:51 p.m.)	Pretty Perfection got trounced last time out but that looked like a very wide trip in a very short race – not the best place to be. Should bounce back today with a closer post position. Nite Delite will likely set the pace in this one, and has been running with good horses recently. Has been caught at the wire twice in his last two races but today’s field is a bit softer for her.	Eila will also be one of the pace-setters, but has been holding on well lately. If she can put away the others early and get some separation, could hit the wire in front.	Pretty Perfection will be underbet because of her last finish, and at 4:1 or higher she is a good bet to win. Wheel Pretty Perfection over Elusive Joni, Nite Delite and Eila in exacta and trifecta.
6 (1:28 p.m.)	North Ocean will likely press the pace and attempt to stalk. Has the class to remain close throughout. If Barney Rebel draws in, he should get a good look. He just dropped down in class for a win last time out. Likes to run late and should get a chance to.	Boppin and Weavin is one of the quicker horses out of the gate. Will definitely be trying to wire it. His odds will probably drift much higher by post time.	If Barney Rebel draws in, bet him to win. Otherwise box Boppin and Weavin, Coturnix, Racetrack Romance and North Ocean in exacta and trifecta wagers.
7 (2:07 p.m.)	Three Rules was on the Derby trail for a while but cannot handle the classic distance. Shortening up makes him very competitive here. Will be very tough to beat at this distance. Recruiting Ready has been running at this level of competition for a while now, and is competitive. Will be challenged by a couple in here. Not an easy race for him.	Proforma is lightly raced but has yet to throw in a bad effort. Even though this is a step up, he looks like he is an improving horse.	Several in here could get it done. Spread your bets accordingly. Take Proforma to win at odds of 6:1 or higher. Box Three Rules, Proforma and Recruiting Ready in exacta and trifecta.
8 (2:47 p.m.)	Yoshida has just a maiden win to his credit but it was against a large, tough field at Keeneland. He can hang with these boys. Nice running style with lots of room to improve. Dover Cliffs is very similar but has been racing against slightly cheaper horses. These two are tough to separate but slight nod to Yoshida.	Cool Arrow has a couple of duds in his recent racing history, but those were against much better horses. This field is much less competitive so he should improve.	Wheel Yoshida and Cool Arrow over Total Tap, Yoshida, Dover Cliffs, and Cool Arrow in exacta and trifecta wagers.
9 (3:27 p.m.)	AP Indian ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint last fall and then backed that up with a respectable second in his one start this year. Solid in this field. Whitmore ran in the Derby last year but is now resetting and climbing the class ladder again as a four-year-old. Four race win streak at stake.	Holy Boss has some back class, like many of these, but has been running against slightly cheaper lately. Looking for a return to form today.	AP Indian is still a good value at 8:5. Bet him to win. Wheel AP Indian over Laki, AP Indian, Whitmore and Holy Boss.
10 (4:07 p.m.)	On Leave has a G2 win under her belt, just two races back. Faltered in G1 company last time out but finished well. That race says she is ready and can improve today. Elysea’s World has lots of graded stakes practice and lots of hitting the board in those races. Definitely belongs here.	Zipessa carries a lot of back class into this one but has been out of form lately. This drop in class should help if she is ready.	Take Elysea’s World to win. Box Danilova, Elysea’s World, Danilova and On Leave in exacta and trifecta wagers.
11 (4:43 p.m.)	Hedge Fund is the morning line favorite but could not hold his speed to the wire against a soft field in the Illinois Derby (G3). Will be forwardly placed today. But today will have competition for the early lead. Time to Travel held on for fourth place in Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland last time out. May press the pace again. This pace figures to be hot so the winner may be the one running best in the stretch.	Watch Me Whip and Society Beau both come to this one off wins at Keeneland in large competitive fields. Either one could be the one to advance off those efforts to snag this one. Both will come from off the pace.	The favorites look weak, so put some money on the value horses. Bet Society Beau to win. Wheel Society Beau and Watch Me Whip with Hedge Fund, Society Beau, Watch Me Whip and Time To Travel.
12 (5:39 p.m.)	World Approval is a speedy type, will be near the pace early on. Shortens up today, which should help his chances. Projected has just two races in the states but both were solid. Won last time out at seven furlongs, would have won by more if the race were as long as this one. This race has plenty of pace, so that helps his chances with a late run.	Ring Weekend has a second-place effort in the Dixie (G2) here at Pimlico last year. Has arguably been in over his head a bit since then, but did collect a win in a G2 at Saratoga last fall. Should be competitive here today. Expect odds closer to 5:1 by post time.	World Approval at 7:2 is a great win bet. Wheel World Approval over World Approval, Projected, Blacktype, and Ring Weekend in exacta and trifecta wagers.
13 PREAKNESS (6:48 p.m.)	The winner of the Kentucky Derby is always a strong choice to win the Preakness, because the race conditions are similar. The Derby winner is an even stronger choice in the Preakness when he was the favorite in the Derby. Such is the case with Always Dreaming. Although many Derby contenders may grumble about the rough trip they got, there is nothing pointing to Always Dreaming taking a step back today. He remains the horse to beat. However, things do change from Derby to Preakness, and the dream ride that Always Dreaming enjoyed will be more difficult to find today. Having seen the playbook for Always Dreaming, his Derby competitors will try to prevent it working twice. Expect more pressure on the lead, specifically from Conquest Mo Money, and possibly from Classic Empire, who was shuffled too far back in the Derby to be a part of the lead pack.	The added pace pressure should set up things nicely for horses coming from further back. Specifically Gunnevera and Lookin At Lee will get their shots. Gunnevera had arguably the worst trip in the Derby, but still finished well. All the stretch running horses will enjoy the smaller field, and possibly a dry track, to help their causes.	Best bet to win: Always Dreaming Best value to win: Lookin At Lee Live long shot: Gunnevera
14 (7:35 p.m.)	Minor Legend has been running with better. Took a small class drop last time out and failed to fire. He did have some trouble at the start of that one. Hunger is a bit of a class climber but likes to hit the board, and this is not a large step up for him. Will stalk from close up.	Vim was very competitive last year but has looked shabby so far this year. Has some back class so it is not out of the question he can get back into form against this weak field.	This one is too wide open to focus on one horse. Take Vim if he drifts up to 8:1 or higher. Box Vim, Risky Guy, Minor Legend and Hunger in exacta and trifecta wagers.