Trump broke the Blue Wall once again, but how did he do it?

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at the Palm Beach County Convention Center during an election night watch party, Wednesday in West Palm Beach, Florida. Lynne Sladky/AP

President-elect Donald Trump shattered all predictions and broke the “Blue Wall” for the second time. But how did it happen?

Exit polls point to major shifts among Black and Latino voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Despite the fact that Trump didn’t win a majority of either group nationally, he made major gains with both groups compared to his performance in 2020. Take Michigan, for example: Trump won 11% of the Black vote and 58% of the Latino vote, according to Washington Post exit polls; in 2020, he only won 7% of the Black vote and 44% of the Latino vote.

Pennsylvania, the biggest part of the Blue Wall with the most electoral college votes, had similar shifts. According to Washington Post exit polls, in 2020, only 27% of Latinos voted for Trump, but in 2024, 42% of Pennsylvania Latinos went with Trump. There wasn’t quite as drastic a shift among Black voters in PA, but Trump still made about a 3% gain.

Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania used to be solidly blue states, but their allegiance to the Democratic Party has shifted over the years. In the 20th century, all three states were key parts of the Democratic coalition because of strong union bases and the manufacturing economies that dominated the states. The Democrats’ pro-labor stance resonated with blue-collar workers, and that trend continued for decades. From 1992 to 2012, all three states voted for Democratic candidates, but by 2016, everything changed, and the blue wall flipped for Donald Trump.

In 2016, Trump won all three by razor-thin margins. Political analysts attribute the shift to many working-class voters, mostly in rural industrial towns, who felt left behind by economic changes. Trump’s platform focused on bringing jobs back to the Rust Belt, and the U.S. in general, and that resonated with workers. This shift toward the Republican Party didn’t last, though, and by 2020 the blue wall elected President Biden.

Now, fast forward to 2024, and Trump was able to break the blue wall once again. Nationally, the number one issue for voters in this election was the economy, and that was also the case in these Blue Wall states. A CNN exit poll in Pennsylvania found that 30% of voters rated the economy as the biggest issue, and building back the economy was one of the pillars of Trump’s campaign.

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