It’s shaping up to be the most important week of the NFL season, and all eyes could be on Ravens vs. Steelers in Baltimore.
With the AFC East (Buffalo Bills), AFC South (Houston Texans) and AFC West (Kansas City) champions already crowned, the AFC North is the only division in the conference that remains unsettled heading into the final three weeks of the regular season.
Baltimore (9-5) and Pittsburgh (10-4) clash on Saturday afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium, and the stakes are clear: The Steelers claim the division title with a win, while a Ravens victory extends the race and secures Baltimore’s spot in the postseason.
The Ravens can also clinch a playoff berth if both the Miami Dolphins (6-8) and Indianapolis Colts (6-8) lose or tie against their respective opponents on Sunday. The Dolphins are slight home favorites against the San Francisco 49ers (6-8), while the Colts are 3 1/2-point favorites against the visiting Tennessee Titans (3-11).
While the Ravens are all but assured of a playoff berth already, entering Week 16 with a greater than 99% chance of making the seven-team field, their potential seeding is much murkier. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, the Ravens are nearly as likely to finish the regular season as the second seed (2.4%) as they are the seventh (3.6%). An AFC North title would likely result in the No. 3 seed and a home wild-card game against either the Denver Broncos or Los Angeles Chargers — both of whom the Ravens beat earlier this season — while a second-place finish would lead to a road wild-card game at Houston in a rematch of a Christmas Day clash as well as last season’s divisional round.
The top seed in the AFC could also be decided this weekend. Kansas City (13-1) clinches the lone first-round bye and home-field advantage with a win Saturday over the visiting Texans (9-5) and a Bills loss or tie Sunday against the New England Patriots, or a tie against Houston and a Bills loss. The Chiefs, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes cleared to start after he injured his ankle last week, are 3 1/2-point favorites against the Texans, while Buffalo (11-3) and NFL Most Valuable Player favorite Josh Allen are a whopping 14-point favorite against the visiting Patriots (3-11).
If the Ravens win Saturday and finish the regular season with the same record as the Steelers, there are several tiebreakers that could decide the champion, starting with the best record in games played within the division and ending with an unlikely (but possible!) coin toss.
Baltimore is a 6 1/2-point favorite against Pittsburgh, which will be without wide receiver George Pickens and potentially two other starters in safety DeShon Elliott and cornerback Donte Jackson. The Ravens, meanwhile, have three starters listed as questionable and will once again be without wide receiver Diontae Johnson after he was excused from team activities following his one-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the team.
Here are the full clinching scenarios for the AFC in Week 16:
CLINCHED
Buffalo Bills (11-3) — AFC East
Houston Texans (9-5) — AFC South
Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) — AFC West
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) — playoff berth
CHIEFS vs. Texans; Saturday, 1 p.m., NBC
Kansas City clinches AFC’s No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
1. KC win + BUF loss or tie
2. KC tie + BUF loss
STEELERS at Ravens; Saturday, 4:30 p.m., FOX
Pittsburgh clinches AFC North division title with:
1. PIT win
RAVENS vs. Steelers
Baltimore clinches a playoff berth with:
1. BAL win or tie
2. MIA loss or tie + IND loss or tie
DENVER BRONCOS (9-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-6); Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
Denver clinches a playoff berth with:
1. DEN win or tie
2. MIA loss or tie + CIN loss or tie + IND loss or tie
CHARGERS vs. Broncos
Los Angeles clinches a playoff berth with:
1. LAC win + MIA loss or tie + IND loss or tie
2. LAC tie + MIA loss + IND loss + CIN loss or tie
Have a news tip? Contact sports editor C.J. Doon at cdoon@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/CJDoon.