Baltimore Sun

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Bills quarterback Josh Allen carries the ball for a touchdown against the Ravens during the second quarter of a divisional playoff game Jan. 19 in Orchard Park, New York. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs again stand between the Bills and a Super Bowl berth. GENE J. Puskar/ap

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Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes throws a touchdown pass to tight end Travis Kelce against the Texans on Jan. 18 in Kansas City. Ed Zurga/ap

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AFC: Bills (15-4) at Chiefs (16-2)

When: 6:30 p.m. Sunday, CBS | BetMGM NFL Odds: Chiefs by 11/2

Series record: Bills lead 30-25-1.

Last meeting: Bills beat Chiefs 30-21 on Nov. 17 in Buffalo.

Last week: Bills beat Ravens 27-25; Chiefs beat Texans 23-14.

Bills player to watch: Josh Allen is enjoying his most efficient season, and the Bills quarterback has a track record of raising his level of play in the playoffs. He’s 7-5 in the postseason with a franchise-record 23 touchdowns passing against just four interceptions, and his seven TDs rushing in the postseason are tied for second on the NFL list among QBs, one behind Steve Young. In three playoff losses to the Chiefs, Allen is a combined 81 of 126 for 802 yards with seven TDs passing, two rushing and just one interception.

Chiefs player to watch: Patrick Mahomes moved into a tie with Joe Montana for the second-most playoff wins as a starting quarterback in the divisional round against Houston. But while Montana was 16-7 for his career, the Chiefs’ two-time NFL MVP is 16-3, and two of the three losses came in overtime in the AFC championship game while the other came in the Super Bowl — the only Super Bowl he’s lost in four tries.

Key matchup: The Chiefs defensive front against Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who beat them both rushing and passing in a loss in Buffalo in November. Allen threw for 262 yards and a touchdown in that game while running 12 times for 55 yards and another score — a 26-yard TD run with 2:17 left that sealed the 30-21 victory for the Bills.

Series notes: Since meeting for the AFC title on Jan. 24, 2021, the Bills and Chiefs have met seven times, with the Bills winning all four regular-season matchups and the Chiefs winning each of the three playoff games. That includes a 38-24 win that sent the Chiefs to the Super Bowl, a 42-36 overtime win in the divisional round the following year, and a 27-24 divisional win in Buffalo last year. The team also met for the 1993 conference championship with the Bills winning 30-13 in the midst of four straight Super Bowl appearances, and the Bills won a divisional playoff game on Jan. 5, 1992. The Chiefs beat the Bills 31-7 for the AFL title on Jan. 1, 1967, and would lose to the Packers two weeks later in the first Super Bowl.

Stats & stuff: The Bills are 4-2 in the AFC championship game with all four wins coming during the 1990-93 seasons. ... The Bills are 0-4 in road playoff games in coach Sean McDermott’s eight seasons and 3-12 overall. They’ve lost seven straight playoff road games since a 29-10 win at Miami in the AFC championship game in the 1992 season. That playoff road skid is the third longest in the NFL behind the Cowboys, Browns, Seahawks and Giants, who each dropped eight straight, and Lions (12). ... McDermott’s 93 wins, including playoffs, are tied with Mike Holmgren for second most by a coach through his first eight seasons. Only George Seifert (108) won more. ...The Bills are the NFL’s first team without a turnover in four straight playoff outings. Buffalo hasn’t turned over the ball since Allen threw an interception in a 27-10 loss to the Bengals in the 2022 divisional round. ... The Bills finished the season with a league-best plus-24 turnover differential, which they’ve increased to plus-27 through the postseason. ... Allen has completed passes to eight players in each of the Bills’ first two playoff games this year. ... With two rushing TDs last week, Allen increased his playoff career total to seven, tied with Tom Brady for second on the NFL list, and one behind Steve Young. ... Allen’s 629 yards rushing in the playoffs rank second on the career list behind the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson (641). ... The Bills are 8-1 when scoring a touchdown on their opening drive this season. Their only loss was a 44-42 decision at the Rams on Dec. 8. ... The Chiefs are in the AFC title game for the seventh consecutive season with six of them having been played in Kansas City. The Patriots hold the record with eight straight from 2011-18. ... Chiefs coach Andy Reid won his 300th career game last week against the Texans.

The pick: Allen is 4-1 against Mahomes in the regular season. But he’s still seeking his first win in the playoffs. Mahomes has only lost to Tom Brady (twice) and Joe Burrow in the postseason, going 16-3. He is 7-0 straight up and ATS as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal. The Bills were a home underdog last week when they beat the Ravens. Allen has never won consecutive games as an underdog in 15 tries. The Chiefs are aiming to become the first team in NFL history to three-peat in the Super Bowl era. With Taylor Swift and maybe Caitlin Clark cheering them on, they’re tough to beat at Arrowhead Stadium. CHIEFS 27-26