The Ravens are officially back in the playoffs.
While Baltimore has long been a virtual lock to make the seven-team field, the Ravens clinched their spot Saturday with a 34-17 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The home victory also kept Baltimore’s hopes alive for the AFC North title, putting the archrivals in a tie for first place with two games remaining in the regular season.
Both teams now face a quick turnaround. On Christmas Day, the Ravens (10-5) hit the road to take on the Texans, while the Steelers (10-5) host the Chiefs in a first-of-its-kind streaming doubleheader on Netflix. The four playoff-bound teams are all finishing a stretch of three games in 11 days, as Kansas City secured a 27-19 win over Houston earlier Saturday.
While five of the seven AFC playoff teams are secured and three of the four division champions are crowned, there are still a few loose ends to tie up before the postseason begins. Here’s what’s still at stake:No. 1 seed
It’s going to take more than an ankle injury to stop Patrick Mahomes.
The two-time NFL Most Valuable Player rushed for 33 yards and a touchdown and passed for 260 yards and a score to lead Kansas City to a victory over Houston that puts the Chiefs on the brink of the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The Chiefs (14-1) can clinch the first-round bye and home-field advantage by beating Pittsburgh on Wednesday. Also, if the Bills (12-3) fail to win either of their remaining two games, the Chiefs would get the top seed.
While the Chiefs’ lead appears insurmountable, Buffalo owns the crucial head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to its 30-21 win over Kansas City in Week 11 and faces an easier schedule down the stretch. While the Chiefs play the Steelers and Broncos — two teams still chasing important playoff positioning — the Bills finish against the lowly Patriots (3-12) and Jets (4-11).
If the Bills and Chiefs both finish 14-3, the AFC playoffs run through Buffalo.
AFC North title
Christmas Day could end up deciding the division title.
A Ravens win over the Texans and a Steelers loss to the Chiefs would give Baltimore a one-game lead entering the regular-season finale. Then all the Ravens would need is a victory over the hapless Cleveland Browns (3-12) to wrap up their second straight AFC North crown and a home wild-card game the following weekend.
If the Ravens and Steelers both lose Wednesday, Pittsburgh finishes its regular season against a much tougher opponent in the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8), who are not mathematically eliminated from postseason contention yet and could be playing for a chance to claim the final wild-card spot. A Ravens win over Cleveland and a Steelers loss to Cincinnati would give Baltimore the title.
If both teams go 2-0 down the stretch and finish 12-5, it would come down to tiebreakers. In that scenario, the head-to-head record would be tied 1-1 and the division record would be tied 4-2, so it would come down to the best record against common opponents. The Steelers, with a hypothetical win over a Chiefs team that beat Baltimore in Week 1, would take the division title by virtue of a 9-3 vs. 8-4 edge.
If both teams somehow go 0-2 to finish the regular season and end up 10-7, Pittsburgh would win the division because of a superior record against conference opponents (7-5 vs. 6-6).
Final wild-card spots
It’s very likely that the two AFC West teams that met Thursday night — the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers — will be the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds, in some order.
The Broncos and Chargers are both 9-6 after Los Angeles’ 34-27 win over Denver at SoFi Stadium. The Broncos have a 78% chance to reach the postseason, while the Chargers are at 95%, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
The three other teams still in the hunt for those last two spots are the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati, which are all 7-8 after winning Sunday. The Colts have the best odds to crack the field at 12%, followed by the Dolphins (7%) and Bengals (5%).
Denver can clinch its first postseason berth since 2015 with a win over Cincinnati on Saturday, while Los Angeles can secure its spot with a victory over New England. A loss or tie by Indianapolis, Miami or Cincinnati over the next two weeks would also eliminate them from postseason contention.
Here’s what the wild-card matchups would be if the season ended Saturday:
No. 1 Kansas City (1st AFC West) — bye
No. 7 Denver (3rd AFC West) at No. 2 Buffalo (1st AFC East)
No. 6 L.A. Chargers (2nd AFC West) at No. 3 Pittsburgh (1st AFC North)
No. 5 Ravens (2nd AFC North) at No. 4 Houston (1st AFC South)
Have a news tip? Contact sports editor C.J. Doon at cdoon@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/CJDoon.