Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson said Tuesday that President Donald Trump’s proposed budget could mean an additional $430 million in federal cuts to the state — a potential blow he called “painful” but not likely to trigger a special legislative session.

“We can weather that storm in the short term,” he said.

Under the state constitution, the Maryland General Assembly meets for 90 days annually. Because of federal uncertainty spurred by the Trump administration, many are left wondering if the legislature can wait until January to reconvene, or if a special session to address the massive gaps in funding will be necessary.

“Right now, I would say it’s more unlikely than likely, but it is not off the table in any way,” Ferguson said of a special legislative session.

During the legislative session, General Assembly Republicans railed against Democrats and Gov. Wes Moore for generating the state’s economic crisis, saying that Maryland is too dependent upon the federal government for the state’s economy and job market.

Ferguson told reporters Tuesday morning that a fiscal analysis completed by the Department of Legislative Services found that Maryland could lose an additional $430 million if Congress passes Trump’s budget. This includes $148 million in slashes to Section 8 housing programs, $94 million to low-income heat and energy assistance, and $61 million to the revolving loan fund for clean water and drinking water.

“Congress has the final decision on that, so we’ll see,” Ferguson said. “That’s what we’re tracking.”

The Maryland General Assembly adjourned for the year on April 7 with 8% maintained in the Rainy Day Fund and a $315 million surplus, giving Gov. Wes Moore’s administration “the discretion to be able to use it to cover as many gaps as possible.”

The $430 million does not include cuts to Medicaid, which is Ferguson’s main concern.

Currently, the federal government pays for 90% of Maryland’s Medicaid, and the state picks up the remaining 10%.

Ferguson estimates that if that were to shift to a 50-50 split, the state would either have to take on approximately $1 billion in costs or remove 300,000 people from their secured health insurance.

At several points during the 2025 legislative session, Ferguson warned of an increasingly dour economic outlook for the state under Trump, which led to more and more cuts to the state budget. He warned of the potential for a recession in Maryland, pointing to a report from Moody’s that said “Maryland ranks at or near the top for risk from changing federal priorities and policies, by metrics as diverse as share of federal government employment, scientific research grant funding and federal contract awards.”

Bigger health care cuts could lead to a special session “because it will have such a disruptive impact on our entire health care system,” he said.

Before adjourning for the year, Ferguson and House Speaker Adrienne A. Jones, a Baltimore County Democrat, established the Joint Federal Action Oversight Committee, which is set to monitor the Trump administration’s impact on Maryland. While the joint committee has yet to convene, Ferguson said legislative leadership will have a clearer vision of whether or not a special session will be necessary once meetings are held.

“It’s really tough to say until Congress moves on a budget,” he said. “We have ideas, but we don’t really know the answer.”

The Maryland General Assembly grappled with a nearly $3 billion budget deficit during the 2025 legislative session — a gap they filled with approximately $2 billion in cuts and $1.6 billion in new or increased taxes and fees.

According to Ferguson, should a special session need to be convened before January, he does not see “a remote possibility” that the legislature would seek to raise more revenue.

“Any special session is built around prioritizing what those cuts look like,” he said.

Jones’ office declined to comment on whether the House chamber would consider raising taxes during a special legislative session.

“I think the challenge with coming back is that, if it’s necessary, it’s because we’re making even harder decisions about what more to cut,” Ferguson said. “I think, if we are in a special session scenario, it’s because the lack of federal dollars that’s projected is so severe that we’re going to have to cut from some other areas.”

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