It is customary in Maryland politics to regard the third legislative session of a governor’s four-year term to be the make-or-break moment. And for good reason. The first year is generally transitional and the fourth seldom ambitious (lawmakers seeking reelection prefer to shy away from controversy). That makes Years 2 and 3 the biggies with Year 3 looming largest because it will be most in the minds of voters. That may be overly analytical (Maryland voters tend to favor incumbents regardless) but it’s the conventional wisdom.

This year, however, is different. The stakes are higher. First because, as Gov. Wes Moore has pointed out, Maryland faces two unusually serious challenges — a $3 billion budget deficit and an occupant of the White House with an outsized ambition to reshape the federal government and an undersized appreciation of constitutional limits on his power. The first is not especially uncommon, the second while unique to President Donald Trump is a challenge shared by all Americans (although Maryland, with its considerable federal workforce, has arguably more at stake).

But there is also a third factor and that is the growing national profile of Gov. Moore and the expectation that this gifted public speaker, best-selling author, Rhodes Scholar, combat-tested U.S. Army officer, philanthropy executive, married father of two and Maryland’s first Black governor is also a potential Democratic candidate for president of the United States in 2028. Moore hasn’t publicly committed to that path but polls show he’s on the radar. Not nearly as well known to potential primary voters across the country as former Vice President Kamala Harris but perhaps in the same category as U.S. Sen. Cory Booker or former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke.

That puts an interesting overlay to proceedings in Annapolis. A Democratic governor who might confidently embrace higher taxes knowing that such a move wouldn’t necessarily hurt his standings with Maryland voters, for example, might hesitate given how that might be seen in swing states let alone those that lean Republican. Former Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley raised both the state sales tax and the top income tax rate when he was governor but his progressive economic policies didn’t exactly boost his presidential bid in 2016 that swiftly ended in the Iowa caucuses.

Yet such speculation can quickly become overly complicated. And in last week’s State of the State Address, Moore went in directions that a Democratic presidential aspirant probably wouldn’t go — leaning into growing the state’s economy, for example, instead of heaping blame on Trump. One can only imagine how anyone from outside the Old Line State could possibly take much interest in the governor’s extended comments on modestly reducing the corporate tax rate (not exactly a rallying cry at Democratic National Conventions) or eliminating itemized deductions on state income taxes while doubling the standard deduction (good luck making that a campaign slogan).

Of course, that also begs the question: Might Moore’s various tax and fee increases (not to mention proposed spending cuts like the $200 million he wants to take from the Developmental Disabilities Administration that’s drawing energetic protests) already be hurting any aspirations he may hold for higher office? Maryland GOP leaders seem to think it’s an Achilles heel. They’ve been busy complaining about his tax plans and it’s even gotten the attention The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board. In a Feb. 4 editorial, Journal editors called Moore a “rising star” who is “not doing much for his national saleability” by promoting tax policies that amount to a “Californication of Maryland.”

In other words, Moore is damned if he does or damned if he doesn’t when it comes to making tough budget choices. That leaves him with the only reliable standard when he comes to decision making in Annapolis: What does he genuinely believe is in the best interests of Maryland? The advantage of such an approach is that the governor can follow a course that is true and forthright and he can accept whatever fallout follows knowing he did the right thing whether it boosted any personal political ambitions or not. As for any further criticism of Trump (or co-President Elon Musk), we strongly suspect he won’t need our counsel on that. Some opportunities are simply irresistible.