Though inflation is slowing down nationally, Marylanders may see higher Christmas tree prices than in 2023, as production costs and climate stressors to the tree supply chain may be baked into this year’s cheer.

How much? It depends on the type of tree and where shoppers find them.

The American Christmas Tree Association, which represents makers of artificial trees, said prices for live trees likely increased 10% to 15% over last year and blamed overall inflation. But the trade group representing tree farmers, the National Christmas Tree Association (NCTA), doubts those numbers, saying it’s too soon to know what the nation’s retailers are charging.

At Valley View Farms in Cockeysville, the top sellers are trees between 7 and 8 feet tall. Their cost this year: $150, the same as last year.

Valley View customer Oscar Brown spent $269.99 for a 10-foot tree, plus $130 for delivery to his Ellicott City home. Brown, who has been buying Christmas trees for 10 years, said he prefers taller trees. Cost wasn’t a major factor in his decision.

When asked about the price, he said, “There were much bigger. I guess they’re cutting them sooner.”

Valley View employee Cynthia Mann said trees between 9 and 10 feet cost $239 last year. Trees between 5 feet and 6 feet went for $65 in 2023. This year they’re selling for $99.

North Baltimore resident Pam Miller’s four-footer came in at $44.99, but she admitted she didn’t care about the price. Mann believed the price for those “tabletop” trees only went up $5 year over year.

Trees purchased at nurseries like Valley View accounted for 16% of Christmas tree sales in 2023, according to the NCTA, while “choose and cut” farms made up a quarter of sales. NCTA data found the median price for a tree nationally was $75 in 2023, down from $80 in 2022. The association’s data is retrospective, meaning it’s too soon to know this year’s numbers.

“Nobody really knows what the price of trees are,” said NCTA spokeswoman Jill Sidebottom.

Sidebottom said many factors go into the price of a real Christmas tree, such as height, species, quality grade and local markets.

Shorter, thinner trees are generally less expensive than taller, fuller ones. Likewise, pines and Douglas firs tend to run cheaper than the more premium true firs, like Frasers, and spruces because they grow faster.

Valley View employee Cynthia Mann said trees between 5 and 6 feet hewed closer to the NCTA’s projections though, at $65 in 2023, though this year they’re selling for $99.

Wholesale prices rising

Another NCTA survey found that 60% of Christmas tree producers nationally were not planning to increase prices this year. However, Sidebottom told The Baltimore Sun that those plans wouldn’t account for retailers potentially upping their prices. And some sellers are reporting that their wholesale costs are rising.

Valley View gets 90% of its Christmas trees from wholesalers that have raised prices, Fischer said. This year, all trees on the Valley View Farms lot are Fraser firs, the same species as the 2024 White House tree.

Jamie Condon is co-owner of A Snowball’s Chance Tree Farm, a choose-and-cut operation in Randallstown that also carries precut Fraser firs from a North Carolina wholesaler.

“From last year to this year, the price [from the wholesaler] went up, on average, I’d say, it was probably $6 to $7 per tree,” Condon said of the precuts’ cost, which in turn increases the price for the customer. However, she said gas prices affect costs too since the farm goes to pick up the trees themselves as opposed to having the trees shipped, which would be more expensive still.

Trees grown on the farm have also increased in price, Condon said, though every tree cut costs $100 regardless of size or species. Last year’s flat rate was $90, she said, when the farm sold out its stock in just two weekends. Before instituting the flat rate in 2023, the farm priced trees by species.

Additionally, the rising prices of fertilizers, pesticides and other resources used to raise trees over the years before they’re harvested are negatively affecting tree farmers, Sidebottom said. Both Sidebottom and Fischer also pointed out that raising a Christmas tree for years for harvest comes with high labor costs.

Some tree prices lower this year

Ronnie Sewell of Sewell’s Farm in Taneytown said he’s now charging slightly less for trees than the past two years. “I have a really great crop, good color and everything and I probably would like to sell a few more, so I decided to price them down a little when everybody seems to be taking a tree, and everybody seems to be happy,” he said.

As far as the cost of production, Sewell said, “Well, that has been a key issue with any farmer right now. Your labor is a big part of that and then the cost of energy and fuel and everything else. But I think all in all, it’s kind of leveled out.”

Sewell’s Farm prices trees by quality. He said a 6- to 7-foot Fraser is in the $75 to $95 range, with a 7- to 8-foot Fraser going between $95 to $135. Sewell said prices were as much as 10% less this year, again, depending on an individual tree’s quality.

Previously Sewell has bought from wholesalers to supply Boy Scout troops, but he didn’t this year since he had enough trees to meet his needs. He believes wholesalers’ prices have gone up due to supply and demand, as well as a general increase in the cost of production.

Sewell didn’t think the economy would affect the public’s Christmas tree-buying habits this holiday season.

“I saw that last year. I don’t see it as much this year,” he said. “I think we turned a corner here on price and [people’s] outlook seems to be more favorable this year on spending money as compared to the last couple of years.”

Christmas versus climate

According to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), an extremely hot and dry summer in 2021 killed more than 70% of Christmas tree seedlings in Oregon, the nation’s top producer of Christmas trees.

The NCEI also found that in North Carolina, the second-largest Christmas tree-producing state, Hurricane Helene caused landslides and damaged infrastructure. That led to $125 million in losses for Christmas trees and ornamental nurseries this year.

The trees people take home are usually at least five years old, depending on the species. Trees are the most vulnerable to drought after they’re planted. So, losing 20% or more of a year’s worth of seedlings due to unforeseen weather catastrophes can “create a hole in your inventory in years to come, which is kind of hard to overcome as a grower,” Sidebottom said.

But Sidebottom didn’t believe these environmental stressors would affect the price of trees this year, as the producers’ contracts with wholesalers had already been written before Helene hit.

Sewell said three spells of dry weather this year caused some trees to die and affected other trees’ color, but recent rains have repaired those defects in the still-living trees. His Douglas firs had also experienced needle dropping, but they’ve since recovered and are being cut for sale.

As for future prices, the outlook was less clear. “It’s hard to say,” Sidebottom said. “Two or three years ago, the majority of growers had increased their prices, but over the last couple of years, they’ve tried to hold them steady.”

The majority of American families have artificial trees, a one-time expense that takes care of Christmas tree needs for years, according to the American Christmas Tree Association. Still, Fischer offers, “You’re not going to get the (same) satisfaction from a fake tree.”

Have a news tip? Contact Racquel Bazos at rbazos@baltsun.com, 443-813-0770 or on X as @rzbworks.