The election for Maryland’s U.S. Senate seat has been shaken up by the release of several polls in recent weeks. First, a poll sponsored by AARP and conducted in August jointly by Democratic and Republican polling organizations found former Gov. Larry Hogan and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks are tied in the race with 46% each.

Since then, several polls have shown Alsobrooks pulling into the lead over Hogan, but those polls were mostly conducted before CNN reported that Alsobrooks claimed property tax credits that she was not qualified to take. Alsobrooks claims that these transgressions were merely a mistake, but the fact that they occurred over a period of multiple years in multiple jurisdictions suggests a pattern rather than a mistake.

Even before this latest development in the race, the polls showed Hogan is running a far closer race as a Republican in Maryland than former President Donald Trump is against Vice President Kamala Harris. In the AARP poll, Harris has an enormous 32 percentage point lead over Trump in Maryland. In this era, it is highly unusual for voters to split their tickets. The general rule is that the party that wins the presidential vote in a state also wins the state’s U.S. Senate race. Even when ticket-splitting does occur, it is nearly unheard of for one party’s presidential candidate to win a statewide race by 32 points while the same party’s Senate candidate loses. If that’s how the vote turns out in November, Maryland will make political history.

Some pundits have tried to explain why Hogan is so overwhelmingly outperforming Trump in Maryland and, conversely, why Alsobrooks is underperforming Harris by so much. Their consensus seems to be that Hogan is well-known while Alsobrooks is comparatively unknown. That might explain some of the ticket-splitting, but not ticket-splitting on this order of magnitude. I have another explanation, which I feel more accurately explains what is going on.

So far, the overriding Alsobrooks campaign message seems to be that Hogan is a Republican and therefore the voters should reject him. She keeps driving home this point in her campaign advertisements. The principal rationale for her campaign is that she is a partisan Democrat who will vote the Democratic Party line in the Senate, and for that reason the voters should elect her.

By contrast, as governor, Hogan established an estimable record in Annapolis of working across party lines to pass legislation that would benefit all Maryland citizens, not just members of his own party. This approach earned him record-high polling numbers throughout his eight-year term as governor. Along with Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Hogan was regularly cited as the most popular governor in the country during those years.

Maryland voters like and respect Hogan. In a lopsided Democratic state, they elected him governor twice. Voters are not stupid. They know Hogan is a Republican but have learned that he leans to the political center. Most voters are themselves in the political center. The message from the Alsobrooks campaign that Hogan is a Republican shouldn’t come as a surprise to the voters, as they are fully aware that Hogan is that rare animal in today’s political world — a politician who eschews partisanship and just tries to do what is best for his constituents. Voters like and respect that quality in Hogan.

Democratic and Republican activists each tend to live in their respective political bubbles, conversing exclusively with other activists who share their view of the world. But most voters do not live and breathe politics. Most voters have low opinions of politicians. They have especially low opinions of politicians who revel in rancorous partisanship. So a candidate like Alsobrooks, who seems determined to brand herself as a partisan Democrat, does not endear herself to swing voters.

Hogan has made it clear throughout his campaign that he will not be a guaranteed party-line vote in the Senate. He will evaluate each bill based on its merits and whether it’s best for the people of Maryland, not based on the party that sponsored it. By contrast, Alsobrooks has never signaled that she will deviate so much as an inch from the Democratic Party line on any issue if she wins her election.

Given a choice between a respected former governor who promises to use his independent judgment in the Senate and a partisan political activist who promises to vote the party line, it should not be surprising that the former candidate is vastly outperforming Trump in the polls. If the voters conclude they would prefer a maverick, independent-thinking U.S. senator, Hogan can win.

Sen. Chris West (chris.west@senate.state.md.us) is a Republican representing District 42 in Baltimore and Carroll counties.