Orioles
Giving offense needed spark
O's scoring over a run per game more with Kim than without him
No one man makes a lineup, and the Orioles lineup has players who will earn votes for American League Most Valuable Player this season. But the impact of left fielder Hyun Soo Kim, who returned from the disabled list and batted second Tuesday night, is hard to understate.
The difference between the offensive production when he starts and when he doesn't is over a run per game.
“He brings an element that every team needs,” Orioles manager Buck Showalter said.
As evidenced by the Orioles' paltry 2.9 runs per game in their first 11 games after the All-Star break, played with Kim on the DL because of a hamstring strain, their high-powered offense is a little less consistent without him.
That trend played out before he went on the DL, too, when Kim had made 38 starts for the Orioles. In those starts, the team scored 212 runs, 5.58 per game. In the other 60 games, the Orioles scored 262 runs, 4.37 runs per game.
There was also a pretty clear spike in production simply since the middle of the Houston Astros series May 24-26 when it became clear Kim was overtaking Rule 5 pick Joey Rickard as the preferred left fielder.
Before May 25, the Orioles had been averaging 4.49 runs per game (193 runs in 43 games). In the 55 games entering Tuesday, they averaged 5.11 runs per game (281 total).
Kim's regular presence in the lineup isn't the only thing that can be attributed to. He's more often than not held out against left-handed pitching, which especially recently has given the Orioles lineup fits. His introduction to playing on a regular basis also came when then-scuffling center fielder Adam Jones moved to the leadoff spot, replacing Rickard, who by then was in a deep funk himself.
Jones provided a spark, and before long Kim settled into the No. 2 spot behind him. That version of the Orioles lineup, with third baseman Manny Machado third, sluggers Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis behind him in some order, and then catcher Matt Wieters and second baseman Jonathan Schoop doing damage in the lower half of the order, has been the club's most reliable this season.
Hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh thinks the difference between performances with and without Kim comes down to the work he makes a pitcher do to retire him. With 3.96 pitches seen per plate appearance entering Tuesday and at least four plate appearances per game likely because of his spot in the lineup, Kim is not often an easy out.
“I think there's two elements to it,” Coolbaugh said. “I think a lot of times, he goes deep into counts, which obviously adds more pitches to a pitcher. If you look at his at-bats and pitches per at-bat, I would think ... he's around that 16-pitches-per-game type guy. The second element of that is he has the ability to get on base through a hit or walk at this point in time.
“He's hitting over .300, he takes his walks, he doesn't punch out in quick at-bats. That translates into the next guy up — Manny Machado, Trumbo, Chris Davis — they may get a mistake and consequently that run differential is probably added because of the stress that he puts on the opposing pitchers.”
Kim was already worth 1.1 WAR (wins above replacement) before going on the DL, according to FanGraphs, and surprisingly ranks highly in a lot of categories that could contribute to the team's run production when he's around. His .410 on-base percentage entering Tuesday was nearly 40 points higher than Machado's (.372), the next highest on the team. His slash line of .329/.410/.454 speaks for itself.
But going deeper, he's ranking near the top of the league in other key categories. Among players with 150 plate appearances, his wRC+ of 136 was tied for 13th in the AL before Tuesday.
Weighted runs created plus is, according to FanGraphs, a rate stat that assigns value to each different type of hit and batted ball, normalizes them for park and environmental factors, and judges how many runs players are worth. A wRC+ of 136 means Kim is worth 36 percent more runs than the average player. Only Machado, who had a 140 wRC+ after Monday's games, ranked higher on the Orioles.
Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is another way to look at on-base percentage, assigning different values to singles, doubles and the other ways a player reaches base. According to FanGraphs, Kim's wOBA was .379 at the time he was activated, 11th best in the AL.
All that translates into more run-scoring opportunities. And when Kim is in the lineup, the Orioles are taking advantage of those much more than when he's not.
Showalter said that power typically dictates walks, and Kim has some, but his on-base ability stems from his knack for reading the strike zone, and for fouling off pitches that aren't hit but might be strikes.