One of the ubiquitous causes of war is misperception.

There may be no subset of leaders more prone to misperceptions of their foreign adversaries than the overconfident leadership of a dominant successful administration out of power for four years.

The inauguration of Donald Trump evidenced hubris in dealing with his American adversaries that is less convincing when turned on his foreign enemies.

Political scientist Ralph K. White most famously analyzed this superciliousness in his landmark article “Misperception and the Vietnam War,” later elongated in his masterpiece, “Nobody Wanted War.”

In these works, White outlined perceptions that can lead to the prospect of war by aggressors and those who oppose them; they include: the “diabolical enemy image” held mutually by opposing major actors; the “virile self-image” of aggressors; military overconfidence; and the most pervasive element: selective inattention that causes consideration of some facts and ignoring of others as nations “stumble toward war.”

The Trump administration holds total certainty in its command and power: Trump’s polling support is soaring, according to Rasmussen, which found 54% approved of his transition.

Trump is expanding his national support for domestic policy and change. Democrats are meeting with him; Pennsylvanian Democratic Sen. John Fetterman seems irritated at those in his party who make no effort to cooperate with the president-elect; and there seems to be a growing country-wide détente toward Trump, creating in him further overconfidence.

One should be convinced of his increasing persuasive influence in the United States and in affairs with allies. In foreign policy, not so much.

The president showed his brashness early on following his election by, as The Washington Post describes, demonstrating a “fixation on expanding the nation’s territory to include Greenland, the Panama Canal and Canada … norm-shattering comments about his imperialist ambitions,” despite his supporters’ claiming that he is merely exercising a negotiating tactic. This ambitiousness was reiterated in Trump’s inaugural address, in which he vowed, “Our power will stop all wars.”

With friendly foreign leaders seeming to yield to Trump, these moves are unlikely to lead to conflict, but the former and future president’s confidence that he can intimidate past enemies successfully is a different matter. His hawkishness toward Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran has shown some promise in delivering results, although Iran’s hatred for America and Israel will not be resolved by a peace deal between Israel and Hamas. The lengthy hostage deal is not a victory for the United States and Israel, but it has possibilities.

But how about more powerful archenemies abroad?

About a year ago, before I decided to vote for Trump, I wrote in The Baltimore Sun: Trump “takes for granted the proposition that his success in intimidating foreign foes will be automatically returned as he retakes the presidency. Such a presumption is tailor-made for a catastrophic miscalculation of Russia and China, who have their own fear of humiliation reset in the last three-plus years.”

Trump has clearly demonstrated these classic misperceptions that lead to the wars about which White wrote. Trump’s self-assuredness in his ability to persuade and coerce a new Axis of Evil is a major perceptional error.

Since North Korea, China, Russia and Iran are acting on their perceptions of the evil of the United States, their own virile self-image and military overconfidence, buoyed by their hypersonic missile technology, and new nuclear weaponry and deliverance systems, the result of impasses could be catastrophic.

President Trump seems safe in his antagonism toward his American opposition. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and other leaders of the Democratic Party along with its anti-Trump progressives appear impotent as we embark on a second Trump administration. Others like the technocrats have already folded.

Serious foreign threats? They are less intimidated by Trump this time around. Let’s see if he can adjust.

Richard E. Vatz (rvatz@towson.edu) is professor emeritus of political rhetoric at Towson University and author of “The Only Authentic Book of Persuasion: the Agenda-Spin Method” (Bookwrights House, 2024).