The enigma of Orioles attendance this season can be illustrated through two Tuesdays.

The first was June 25 against the Cleveland Guardians when a game between two of baseball’s four best teams brought in about 18,500 fans. The second was Tuesday versus the Cubs when more than 30,000 fans (some in Chicago blue) braved the oppressive heat at Camden Yards.

The former was one of the least-attended games in Major League Baseball that night. The latter was the best-attended Tuesday game in Baltimore since 2015.Two facts that seem counter to each other can help sum up Orioles attendance this season: It has increased significantly, yet it’s still below average. Attendance is up 27% at Camden Yards so far in 2024 for the largest uptick in MLB, but the Orioles still only rank 19th out of 30 teams despite spending the past two years as one of the American League’s best ballclubs.

T.J. Brightman, the Orioles’ senior vice president and chief revenue officer, said the increase has “met expectations” coming off the team’s 101-win season and continued success this year.

“We’re pleased with the numbers,” he said. “We always want to achieve more and see even more sellouts, but our team’s on a good path right now.”

The complexities of attendance can cause differences like the two Tuesdays, considered the worst day for attendance in MLB. The game against the Guardians did not feature a giveaway like the beach towel promotion for the contest versus the Cubs. Other factors like weather, interest from fans of the opposing team and other events in town can cause fluctuations.

But there are plenty of other examples. The Orioles’ three-game weekend series against the Philadelphia Phillies last month drew 133,067. All three were sellouts, and many in attendance cheered for the road team. The last time that many fans attended a three-game series at Oriole Park was in July 2015.

However, two weekends later, nearly 10,000 fewer fans walked through the gates for Baltimore’s four-game series against the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers, including 23,439 for “Sunday Night Baseball” — only the second time the club has hosted baseball’s primetime broadcast since 2019.

Despite its vagaries, attendance is still a vital metric to track when assessing a fan base, according to Mike Lewis, a professor of marketing at Emory University who has studied fandom for nearly 20 years.

“In baseball, the health of the fan base is directly related to the attendance,” Lewis said. “The fans are everything — they’re the reason the sponsors are putting up that signage in the ballpark. Attendance, to me, it’s the absolute key metric.”

The Orioles entered Thursday with an average attendance of 27,261 through 48 home games — up about 3,300 from last year — and that will likely grow after this weekend’s series against the rival New York Yankees. The growth is even larger — about 6,000 more fans per game for a 27% increase — when comparing through this point of the season. No team in MLB has seen a larger uptick in attendance so far this year.

The only club close to Baltimore’s improvement is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who went on a shocking run in October to make the World Series, with a 26% increase.

Manager Brandon Hyde remembers the dog days of the rebuild when only a few thousand fans watched his oftentimes hapless club spend three years as the AL’s worst team. It’s made him appreciate what’s going on at Camden Yards now even more.

“To have people support us, the fans and the area support us the way they are, it’s a noticeable difference,” Hyde said.

The Orioles are on pace to draw between 2.21 million and 2.47 million fans this season. The last time the club eclipsed 2.21 million was 2015, while 2.47 million would be the Orioles’ highest since 2005. The median attendance in MLB last season was 2.54 million.

“And as the team continues to play well and hopefully go further into the postseason, the attendance will also continue to increase,” Brightman said. “This is a baseball town, and we think the best days for Birdland are ahead of us.”

The days of Oriole Park drawing north of 40,000 fans per game and over 3.5 million for the season, as it did in the ballpark’s first few years, are almost certainly gone given the changes in attendance across MLB. The Orioles aren’t just competing with the Ravens and the Washington Nationals, but also with YouTube and TikTok and anything else that can keep people on their phones and away from the yard.

However, ranking 18th in MLB — a few thousand below the median per-game attendance of approximately 30,000 — means the Orioles have plenty of room to grow.

“I don’t think it’s a question of us getting caught up in where we rank with the rest of the league. It’s more about getting back to levels that this ballpark has seen in the past,” Brightman said. “I do believe the club, as we continue to play well, will see attendance approaching levels that push us well over 2.5 million fans per season.”

In April, when attendance was also up 27%, new Orioles owner David Rubenstein remarked during an event in Washington about how attendance hadn’t jumped as much as he hoped.

“Even though we’ve got a great new owner of the team,” Rubenstein joked, “and Cal Ripken back, we haven’t been able to dramatically increase attendance. Obviously, it’s early in the season.”

Brightman said improving attendance “takes time,” and the data for most MLB teams backs that up, especially for rebuilding clubs. Attendance tends to lag, meaning fans respond more the year after a club’s first season of success than during it. After last year’s stellar campaign, which included the club’s first AL East title since 2014, Brightman said reserved season-ticket packages have increased 35% year over year.

Scott Smith, a 64-year-old Eldersburg resident, said he can tell attendance is up this year, especially compared with the rebuild. Wednesday was his fourth Orioles game this season, and the team’s success is why he’s coming to Camden Yards more now.

“Your expectations are so different now,” Smith said. “Years ago, I don’t know if I could’ve watched them past May. Now, you expect ’em to win every night.”