The Ravens hammered the Texans, 31-2, on Christmas to move within a win of an AFC North repeat. The Browns put up little fight in a 20-3 loss to the Dolphins. Who will have the advantage in the last game of the regular season on Saturday afternoon in Baltimore?

Ravens passing game vs. Browns pass defense

Lamar Jackson will try to put the finishing touches on the greatest passing season of his career against a Cleveland defense that hounded him into one of his lesser outings in a 29-24 Browns upset on Oct. 27. Jackson leads the league in yards per attempt, passer rating and ESPN’s QBR, with a career-high 39 touchdown passes and a career-low four interceptions. He leads an offense that ranks first in yards per play, yards per play, DVOA and red-zone efficiency. Jackson needed just 15 attempts to throw for 168 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans’ fearsome pass rush, using his scrambling ability to buy extra time for several of his biggest strikes. His pecking order of targets still begins with wide receiver Zay Flowers (73 catches, 1,047 yards) and tight end Mark Andrews (51 catches on 61 targets, 10 touchdowns). The Ravens’ pass protection held up against Houston’s elite edge rushers, with Jackson taking just one sack and five hits. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley and left guard Patrick Mekari played particularly well.

They’ll be tested again by a Cleveland front that still gets to the quarterback, no matter what’s wrong with the rest of the roster. That starts with defensive end Myles Garrett (14 sacks, 21 tackles for loss, 28 quarterback hits), who’s wrapping up another All-Pro-caliber season. Garrett will hunt matchups, and the Ravens will likely counter by throwing multiple blockers at him. Third-down back Justice Hill has been ruled out with an illness. Isaiah McGuire on the other edge complements the Browns’ best player. Cleveland’s other defensive superstar, cornerback Denzel Ward, has also played at a Pro Bowl level, leading the league with 19 passes defended, but is out with a shoulder injury. Linebacker Jordan Hicks is good enough in coverage to match up with Andrews, but he’s out with a concussion. For all their talent, the Browns have allowed 6.5 yards per attempt and rank 30th in takeaways. Former Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley posted a 115.5 passer rating against them Sunday.

EDGE: Ravens

Browns passing game vs. Ravens pass defense

Cleveland’s offense went from ragged with Jameis Winston at quarterback to inert with Dorian Thompson-Robinson in his place. The Browns have scored nine points total in Thompson-Robinson’s two starts. He has one touchdown pass and 10 interceptions in 14 career games. The Ravens are expected to see Bailey Zappe, who threw 11 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions in 14 games for the Patriots in 2022 and 2023. The Browns have wasted a very good season from wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (84 catches, 1,166 yards). Their other top threat, tight end David Njoku, is out with a knee injury. Their once-great offensive line has allowed four sacks per game. Cleveland ranks last in third-down efficiency and 27th in the red zone. This is a bad, bad offense.

The Browns will face a Baltimore pass defense that has gotten its act together since these teams met two months ago. Winston threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns in that game, but the Ravens haven’t allowed more than 202 passing yards in any of their past six games. Coordinator Zach Orr found the key when he pulled his best player, safety Kyle Hamilton, back from the line of scrimmage and benched Marcus Williams in favor of Ar’Darius Washington. Hamilton and Washington have clamped down on the explosive plays that killed the Ravens, and they created essential turnovers in wins over Houston and Pittsburgh. Orr has also found the right formula at cornerback, playing Marlon Humphrey (six interceptions, four passes defended) in the slot and rapidly improving rookie Nate Wiggins on the outside. Led by edge rushers Kyle Van Noy and Odafe Oweh, the Ravens also rank second in the league with 52 sacks.

EDGE: Ravens

Ravens running game vs. Browns run defense

The Ravens ran for 251 yards against the Texans and 220 against the Steelers and lead the league in yards per attempt and rush DVOA. Derrick Henry ran for 309 yards in the victories over Houston and Pittsburgh and would need 217 against Cleveland to reach 2,000 for the season. He’s averaging a career-high 5.8 yards per carry as he approaches his 31st birthday (the day of the Browns game), evidence of his remarkable durability and of the space Jackson creates with his gravitational pull. Jackson passed Michael Vick to become the most prolific running quarterback in league history, carrying four times for 87 yards against the Texans. He hit a career-best 21.2 mph on a 48-yard touchdown run, evidence that he’s fit as can be going into the playoffs.

The Browns held the Ravens to 124 rushing yards in October and have played solid run defense, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and ranking 13th in DVOA. Cleveland is without its top run defender in linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, but fellow linebackers Hicks and Devin Bush have played well. Garrett and McGuire are very good on the edges, where Henry does a lot of his damage.

EDGE: Ravens

Browns running game vs. Ravens run defense

Cleveland’s ground attack is also in shambles. Running back Nick Chubb is on injured reserve. Replacement starter Jerome Ford hurt his ankle against the Dolphins and won’t play. D’Onta Foreman, averaging 3,4 yards per carry, would be next in line. This is one area where Thompson-Robinson has been good, with 119 yards on 19 carries.

The Ravens have allowed the fewest yards per game and per attempt in the league. They have all their key run defenders back in the lineup, with Michael Pierce at nose tackle, linebacker Roquan Smith playing at a high level and a rotation of Chris Board, Malik Harrison and Trenton Simpson performing well beside him. It’s difficult to imagine one of the Browns’ running backs going off, but Baltimore’s linebackers and defensive backs will need to be alert to Thompson-Robinson breaking past the line of scrimmage.

EDGE: Ravens

Ravens special teams vs. Browns special teams

Justin Tucker hasn’t missed since the Ravens’ bye week, nailing two attempts from beyond 50 yards and quieting critics who said the team should look for his replacement. The Ravens are still looking for the right combination with their returners after they inserted waiver claim Steven Sims to field punts against Houston. They still rank an uncharacteristic 23rd in special teams DVOA.

The Browns are even worse at 30th in DVOA, dragged down by dreadful kicking and below-average performance in every other facet of special teams. Dustin Hopkins has made just 17 of 26 field-goal attempts and 16 of 19 extra-point attempts. Cleveland has allowed 13.9 yards per punt return, so this could be a week for the Ravens to break one.

EDGE: Ravens

Ravens intangibles vs. Browns intangibles

Ravens coach John Harbaugh and his players masterfully handled their stretch of three games in 11 days, going undefeated with a plus-67 scoring margin to snatch control of the AFC North. The Ravens will face the Browns coming off 10 days’ rest with a largely healthy roster and plenty of incentive to finish strong. Despite being huge favorites, they’re unlikely to look past a team that upset them earlier in the season. Harbaugh’s team again seems to be peaking late with good reason to believe in its Super Bowl chances. The Browns, meanwhile, are dragging to the end of a disastrous season with no long-term solution at quarterback and buzz that their best player, Garrett, might want out if losing persists. Coach Kevin Stefanski has demonstrated he can lead Cleveland to the playoffs, and he might get another chance in 2025. For now, his team’s fans would probably be happier with a top-three draft pick than another win over the Ravens.

EDGE: Ravens

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