Projected costs associated with school spending and the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future education reform plan are surging. In total, Maryland’s 24 counties are now projected to owe billions more than previously estimated.

Maryland House of Delegates Republicans are not surprised.

Del. Matt Morgan of St. Mary’s County said, “Everything we said three years ago that we couldn’t afford the Blueprint is coming true.”

Del. April Miller of Frederick County added: “Our counties can’t afford it. The only way they can do it is to increase property taxes.”

Baltimore County Del. Kathy Szeliga told FOX45, “They are actually building a plane while they fly it.”

The Blueprint for Maryland’s Future passed in 2021. The law pumps billions of additional state and local tax dollars into public education every year. The Blueprint, in part, increases teacher salaries, expands prekindergarten and doubles teacher collaboration time.

But now, new numbers released by the state are showing the Blueprint will cost local jurisdictions far more money than previously projected.

“This is a self-inflicted problem,” stated Morgan.

FOX45 compared charts from the Maryland Department of Legislative Services in 2022 and 2025 that estimate how much money the Blueprint was projected to cost taxpayers in Maryland’s 24 local jurisdictions.

The department released the 2025 figures last month, and they show significant differences in projections.

In 2022, for example, the DLS estimated the Blueprint would cost local jurisdictions a total of $7.5 billion during fiscal year 2025. But the 2025 estimates show it will now cost $8.2 billion. The projections were off by around $700 million.

In 2026, initial projections estimated the Blueprint would cost counties $7.7 billion. Now, the cost in 2026 is projected to be $8.4 billion.

Over just the next five years, it’s estimated the Blueprint will cost local taxpayers $3.7 billion more than the state previously projected. That’s a 9.5% increase.

“I am not surprised at all that the estimates were low,” said Szeliga. “I think that there was a movement to pass this bill and an excitement here that the people crunching the numbers were looking for the best-case scenario they could find.”

In an email, the DLS told FOX45 the initial projects were inaccurate due to a combination of factors.

First, over the past three years, local jurisdictions varied in how they funded education. Those differences affected the projections in subsequent years.

Second, in 2022, Maryland’s legislature passed a law shifting more of the funding burden for the Blueprint from the state to the counties.

Lastly, the Blueprint significantly increases funding for schools with high concentrations of poverty. And in 2022, according to DLS, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the state underestimated the number of students who would be living in poverty.

The Blueprint was passed during the pandemic, when no one knew how the economy would be affected. But the legislature passed the law anyway.

In Annapolis last week, at Maryland State Senate President Bill Ferguson’s news conference, FOX45 asked Ferguson his thoughts on the projected increase.

“Now that we are getting a better understanding of how much the Blueprint is going to cost, in hindsight, was it a mistake to pass the Blueprint during the COVID pandemic?” FOX45 asked him.

“No, it’s certainly not,” replied Ferguson. “Look, there’s no better time than now to make sure that we’re investing in a world-class public education system here in Maryland.”

Ferguson said it’s common for public budgeting projections to fluctuate because formulas and assumptions change over time.

“We know that public education is critical,” added Ferguson.

FOX45 responded: “But the reality is taxpayers by law now have to pay $700 million more in just one year. That’s a lot.”

Ferguson replied, “If we want to create a society where everybody has the opportunity to truly thrive, we have to invest in our public education system to give children a chance to meet their potential.”

Have a news tip? Contact Chris Papst at cjpapst@sbgtv.com.