The Ravens made too many mistakes in losing to the Steelers, 18-16. The Chargers survived a furious comeback to beat the Bengals, 34-27. Who will have the edge when these AFC playoff contenders meet on “Monday Night Football”?
Ravens passing game vs. Chargers pass defense
Lamar Jackson had his worst game of the season against the Steelers, completing just 16 of 33 passes for 207 yards. Pittsburgh did a good job pressuring him without sacrificing containment and stuck to his receivers when he scrambled. Jackson still leads the league in passer rating, and the Ravens remain No. 1 in passing DVOA. The interception Jackson threw against the Steelers was a perfect strike that was snatched away from Justice Hill. His two favorite targets, wide receiver Zay Flowers and tight end Mark Andrews, combined for just four catches and 61 yards in the loss. Jackson’s pass protection wasn’t terrible, but the Ravens’ offensive line committed five penalties. Coach John Harbaugh pointed to those setbacks as the major reason his offense could not achieve its usual flow.
Jackson will face another very good pass defense Monday night. The Chargers allow just 5.5 yards per attempt, rank second in third-down efficiency and preventing touchdowns in the red zone and hold a 13-5 turnover advantage over their opponents. Coordinator (and former Ravens assistant coach) Jesse Minter does it while blitzing on just 22.9% of dropbacks. Minter has two proven stars on the edges in Joey Bosa and the ageless Khalil Mack; second-year outside linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu has outproduced them both with seven sacks and 12 quarterback hits. Mack missed the Bengals game with a groin injury, so his status will be something to watch over the next few days. Defensive tackle Poona Ford will push Jackson’s pocket from the interior.
In the secondary, safety Derwin James Jr. isn’t playing at his former Pro Bowl level but still has five passes defended. Cornerback Kristian Fulton is playing well. His partner, Cam Hart, had to leave last Sunday’s game with a head injury. This is a well-balanced defense that won’t give Jackson a ton of easy reads, but the Bengals’ Joe Burrow (356 yards, three touchdowns) showed an elite quarterback can do damage against it.
EDGE: Ravens
Chargers passing game vs. Ravens pass defense
Quarterback Justin Herbert is off to the most efficient start of his career, averaging 7.9 yards per attempt with 13 touchdown passes and just one interception. He didn’t use his powerful arm enough in the past but is throwing downfield about as much as Jackson this year. Coordinator Greg Roman’s offense actually ranks higher in pass efficiency than run efficiency and will attack the soft middle of the Ravens’ defense with rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey (43 catches, 615 yards, four touchdowns) and tight end Will Dissly. Quentin Johnston (16.1 yards per catch, six touchdowns) is Herbert’s top vertical threat, and the 2023 first-round pick has taken a significant step forward after a disappointing rookie season. It will be interesting to see if the Ravens give more of cornerback Brandon Stephens’ snaps to trade deadline acquisition Tre’Davious White, who did a good job against Pittsburgh’s best downfield threat, George Pickens.
Baltimore’s league-worst pass defense played one of its best games of the season against the Steelers, aided by White and Ar’Darius Washington, who replaced Marcus Williams as a starting safety. Harbaugh said Washington and Kyle Hamilton will continue to be responsible for the back end going forward. The Ravens might also go with four cornerbacks more routinely as they look to get their best coverage units on the field.
Linebacker Roquan Smith is dealing with a hamstring injury and questionable to play. Though Smith hasn’t played consistently well in coverage, his potential absence could leave a heavy burden for second-year starter Trenton Simpson and Malik Harrison. The Ravens’ pass rush has picked up its production over the past two weeks, and they’ll need more of the same against the Chargers, who feature a pair of very good tackles in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. Herbert will hold the ball as he surveys downfield, and he’s taken 23 sacks in 10 games. That could translate to happy hunting for outside linebackers Odafe Oweh and Kyle Van Noy and defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike. The Ravens hope defensive tackle Travis Jones will provide push from the interior as he continues to manage an ankle injury.
EDGE: Chargers
Ravens running game vs. Chargers run defense
The Ravens still lead the league in rushing and yards per attempt, but their pace has slowed considerably over the past month. Derrick Henry carried just 13 times for 65 yards in Pittsburgh, fading from the game plan as the Ravens played from behind in the second half. Jackson was efficient with 46 yards on four carries but opted against taking off several times when he appeared to have plenty of room. He has not hit double-figure carries since the Ravens’ Oct. 13 win over the Washington Commanders. This could be a week for the Ravens to grind out a win on the ground because the Chargers have allowed 4.7 yards per carry, 23rd in the league, against a schedule packed with mediocre running attacks. Ford is tough inside. Bosa and Mack set sturdy edges. But linebackers Daiyan Henley and Denzel Perryman (dealing with a groin injury) are nothing special.
EDGE: Ravens
Chargers running game vs. Ravens run defense
The Ravens will see a pair of familiar faces in running backs J.K. Dobbins (726 yards, 4.8 per carry) and Gus Edwards (3.6 yards per carry). When Roman goes to a new team, it usually becomes an immediate running juggernaut, but that hasn’t been the case in Los Angeles, where the Chargers rank just 20th in the league at 4.2 yards per carry. They rank 10th in attempts, so they’ll at least try to keep the Ravens’ defense honest. The 6-foot-6, 236-pound Herbert is also a threat on scrambles as he showed with 65 yards on five carries against the Bengals.
The Ravens have allowed just 3.4 yards per carry, best in the league, and rank second in total run defense. Smith and Jones are two of their most important run defenders, and their injuries could leave voids, though Simpson and Harrison are solid at linebacker. Hamilton’s role will be something to watch. The Ravens used him as a deep safety more than usual against the Steelers, but he’s also perhaps their best run defender.
EDGE: Ravens
Ravens special teams vs. Chargers special teams
Justin Tucker missed two more field goal attempts, from 47 and 50 yards, against the Steelers, though he bounced back to hit from 54 yards in the third quarter. His 72.7% success rate would be the worst of his career by almost 10 percentage points. Largely because of Tucker’s woes, the Ravens rank 21st in special teams DVOA. The Chargers rank 17th in DVOA. Kicker Cameron Dicker has made 21 of 23 field goal attempts, including five of six from 50 yards or beyond. Derius Davis has averaged an impressive 14.3 yards on punt returns. Los Angeles is weakest on kickoff and punt coverage.
EDGE: Chargers
Ravens intangibles vs. Chargers intangibles
This might be the most fascinating game of the year in this category and not just because the head coaches are brothers. The Chargers’ offensive and defensive coordinators worked for the Ravens. Their offense is full of former Ravens. Jim Harbaugh has quickly built a winning culture in his return to the NFL, getting the most of Herbert and elevating a defense that ranked 24th in points allowed last season. The Chargers (3-2 at home) haven’t played a tough schedule, but they don’t beat themselves and believe in where they’re headed.
The Ravens, meanwhile, are coming off one of their most disappointing performances of the year. Fans aren’t happy that John Harbaugh’s team added to its league-high penalty count and stumbled through a failed 2-point attempt that could have sent the game to overtime. Harbaugh hasn’t coached against his younger brother in 12 years and won the Super Bowl the last time he did. He has certainly never coached tentatively when the NFL world turns its eyes to this fraternal matchup. The Ravens will benefit from an extra day of rest as they recover from their brutal battle against the Steelers and travel west. They need to win to stay within shouting distance of Pittsburgh in the AFC North, so they’ll have plenty of incentive.
EDGE: Even
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