It might be a gamble, but Mega Millions, the national lottery known for eye-popping jackpots, is raising the price of its tickets in April from $2 to $5.

Will more than doubling the price cut into sales?

While opinions varied among lottery ticket buyers and sellers — many hadn’t heard the news yet — a Johns Hopkins business professor thinks it will but perhaps just in the short term.

“The number of people who buy lottery tickets will certainly drop,” said Andrew Ching, who researches consumer behavior.

But, the Hopkins Carey Business School professor said, by more than doubling the price of a ticket, Mega Millions can lose some customers and still bring in a lot of revenue, which leads to bigger jackpots and more interest.

“When the total pie is bigger, the prize becomes bigger,” Ching said. “Then you’re bringing more people back. People see more billion-dollar prizes, and the demand comes back.”

That seems to be what Mega Millions is thinking. In announcing the new ticket prices, which it framed as “mega enhancements,” it touted improved odds and bigger jackpots more frequently. The lottery game, which is sold in 45 states, Washington, D.C., and the U.S. Virgin Islands, also noted that this is the second “price adjustment” since it began selling tickets more than 20 years ago, and the first since 2017.

In Bel Air, Jeff Heffner bought tickets for his wife and himself at a 7-Eleven, and said the new price coming next year was “just too much money.”

“If they increase the price that much, I won’t be buying them, that’s for sure,” Heffner said. “I think it’s going to flop on them and no one will play.”

But, he added, if the jackpot also went up, that’s another story.

“If it went up to a billion or something, then I’d consider buying a ticket,” Heffner said, “but not as frequently,” Heffner said.

Mega Millions said it’s had six winners of billion-dollar jackpots since its launch in 2002.

Some sellers said they believe the price hike would affect sales.

At K&D Tobacco Store near Clifton Park, owner Ka-Quana Chambers said she thought she might sell fewer tickets after the price goes up.

“I don’t think that’s going to discourage them,” Chambers said. “They may not buy as many tickets as four or five at a time, but I do think that they will still purchase them.”

Especially, she added, if people win jackpots more frequently.

But Carole Taylor, a cashier at the 7-Eleven in Carroll Park in Baltimore City, said she isn’t so sure.

“I believe some people are going to stop buying those tickets,” Taylor said, adding that “a lot of people come in for the lottery.”

Eric Down, who had about 10 lottery tickets in his hand at the Mini Mart on Main Street in Annapolis, said he might be among those cutting back on his purchases.

“I think that’s too much. I think the state is already getting a lot of money from the lottery, and to go up to $5,” Down said, exhaling at the thought. “That’s a lot.”

Still, by now, playing the lottery is something of a habit, and he said he’s won $10,000 a couple of times.

“My family did a lot of playing lottery and numbers, and then me, growing up, they always sent me to the store,” he said. “And I started playing on my own.”

Seth Elkin, a spokesman for Maryland Lottery, said lottery players have a wide range of games and price points.

“The daily Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 5 games are available for as little as 50 cents per ticket,” Elkin said in an emailed statement, “and we have scratch-offs at eight different price points from $1 to $50.”

Elkin said the national Mega Millions and Powerball draw a lot of attention because of their large prizes, but combined, they accounted for 11.5% of sales in fiscal 2024. Mega Millions’ share was 4.8%, he said. According to Maryland Lottery and Gaming, Mega Millions’ fiscal 2024 sales totaled $131.5 million.

“Year in and year out, Pick 3, Pick 4, Keno and Racetrax sell substantially more than Mega Millions,” Elkin said. “We might see increased play of those games.”

He said players will still be able to play Powerball and the Maryland game, Multi-Match, for the familiar price of $2.

Or what Ching calls a “reference price.”

“For any product we buy, people have this reference price. You have some idea how much you should pay for it,” he said.

A higher price would trigger a “loss aversion,” Ching said, but perhaps only temporarily.

“People adjust their reference point all the time,” he said.

Consumers might be convinced, for example, to pay the higher price because tickets have remained $2 for so long even as other goods have gone up, he said.

“It depends on how they market it,” Ching said.

And, of course, the allure, despite the odds, of winning that big check with all those zeros.

“It depends on the perception of if they can win,” Ching said. “And lottery players tend to be more optimistic than they should be.”

Baltimore Sun staff members Matt Hubbard, Karl Merton Ferron and Tony Roberts contributed to this article. Have a news tip? Contact Jean Marbella at jmarbella@baltsun.com, 410-332-6060 and x.com/@Jean_Marbella.