Rep. Mike Johnson reclaimed his title as House Speaker for the incoming 119th Congress. The news is noteworthy on many levels, but not the least of which is this feat occurred on the first ballot. Indeed, it appeared Johnson entered the U.S. House of Representatives last Friday very much as a dead man walking with few friends willing to step forward and claim they would support his candidacy unconditionally. How dramatic that the moment of the actual vote was not more drama-filled.

Now the hard work begins for Speaker Johnson who leads one of the smallest-ever majorities in his chamber. His support teeters on all three sides — among his own Republican ranks, among the Democrats (some of whom he will likely need on future votes) and even from his president. Without President-elect Donald Trump’s intervention, it’s unlikely that Johnson would have succeeded. And it’s safe to assume the White House will remind him of this circumstance. And do so frequently.

Why would anyone want this job? Yet, in many ways, Johnson might very well prove to be the best man for the post under these challenging circumstances with little margin for error. Let’s review the history here.

Johnson’s predecessor, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, was a magnet for bad luck and bad blood during his tenure. The Californian made many enemies and few friends as the months dragged on and coalitions of the willing faded in strength. The policies he had to tackle were intractable, at best. And there were plenty of armchair quarterbacks such as Rep. Matt Gaetz who yearned to lob both blame and bombs his way.

So it’s no wonder McCarthy made a deal with the devil when he negotiated an impossible agreement where just one House Republican could challenge his speakership and depose him. Living under that sort of Faustian bargain will eventually take its toll. McCarthy was soon ousted.

McCarthy’s exit ushered in a new acceptance where rank-and-file members in the majority party could be mini-speakers, wielding far more power than the framers intended. The U.S. House of Representatives was surely never intended to be the equivalent of 435 U.S. Senators where everyone holds the power to single-handedly determine the fate of votes on the House floor. Yet, that is what we have regressed to in the House given such slim majorities.

Enter Johnson and the new political paradigm where laws are enacted not by moving 218 votes, but rather moving a mere two or three. This is a dynamic that demands a new kind of speaker — one who is adept at simply finding votes. And it will be tough, especially when House Republicans view any outreach to Democrats as blasphemy and a direct threat to the mandate of their president.

So the question that will be asked of Johnson every day moving forward is this: Can he muster the political will and mastery to form a working coalition that will not upset the losing faction more than it advances the will of the winners? To summon that political dexterity a few times in a year, let alone daily, would seem impossible.

The first major test of this may well prove to be the Republican Party’s big promise to reduce the federal deficit. Even within the MAGA faction, this is a matter of considerable ambivalence. What about those tax cuts that are set to expire? Do they count? What about favored programs like boosting domestic manufacturing? Small wonder that President Trump didn’t cut spending during his first term. Throw in his proposed tariffs increases and costly deportation plans — all on top of his party’s narrow hold over both chambers of Congress — and it would be foolish not to be skeptical.

As history goes, presidents are normally reliable supporters of speakers in their same party. Yet this year will be different. The incoming occupant of the White House is no sure bet to back the aims of Johnson (he’s more apt to expect the reverse with Johnson kowtowing to him). That further complicates the agenda of the entire Republican Party — and suggests the speaker may not want to spend a lot on personalized stationary that may prove outdated soon enough.

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