In a perfect world, you'd have a poker coach whispering in your ear when it's time to act, telling you what to think and how to weigh those thoughts. In reality, you have to rely on your ability, knowing what to consider and how to balance the variables.

Every critical poker decision begins by taking into consideration past patterns, present conditions and the likelihood of future behaviors both in the current hand and over the course of play. A player has to weigh the strength of these variables, with “feel” and analysis working together.

With practice, this gets easier.

I've been working closely with one of my favorite students, Donald, who came to me a far greater fan of consistency than of creativity. Mastering what and how to think would require each of these attributes, and after a few hundred hands, he may have gotten a taste.

Donald was sitting with $1,200 at a $2-$5 no-limit cash game at the Bellagio. He woke up with red kings in middle position and raised to $20. Action folded to the small blind, who thought for a long time before calling, which suggested that he was considering a raise. That's excellent information to have moving forward in a hand.

The flop came A 9 6. The small blind checked. Old Donald would have applied a broad-stroke play and made a continuation bet. New Donald thought it through: If he were ahead, he'd earn no money by betting because of the ace. If he were behind, he'd be throwing money away by betting.

If he checked and was behind, he'd save his money and still have a chance for a miracle. If he were ahead, how much did he risk by checking? There were likely two outs for his opponent at best. Checking would also make Donald look weak, providing an opportunity for a bluff.

Donald checked.

The turn came 4, and Donald's opponent bet $30. Donald considered the intention: “Why would an ace bet so much if I look weak?” Donald committed to the likelihood that his check trapped his opponent into bluffing. He called, because raising would likely prompt a fold.

The river was the 10. The opponent checked. There was no reason for Donald to assume a trap, as Donald hadn't been aggressive post-flop. Value time. Donald wanted his opponent to call light, which meant Donald had to appear weak. Betting too small on the river would give the appearance of strength, so Donald bet $60 into a $105 pot.

The opponent called and turned up J J. Donald won, extracting maximum value.

Donald considered his past pattern of always continuation-betting the flop. He adjusted. He accounted for the likelihood of what his opponent might do based on whether Donald checked or bet. When the opponent revealed more and more information about his hand range, Donald adjusted each time, accounting for the past, present and future with his decisions.

When your process truly accounts for past, present and future considerations, and you manage them effectively, you can create exploitable scenarios. Welcome to poker heaven.