Heading into what will likely be their only debate in a U.S. Senate race with national implications, Democrat Angela Alsobrooks has pulled ahead with a lead over Republican Larry Hogan as the former governor lags in support from Democrats who he’d need to win in Maryland, a new poll from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County found.

Alsobrooks, the two-term Prince George’s County executive, is backed by 48% of voters compared with 39% who say they will vote for Hogan, according to the UMBC Poll of 917 registered voters conducted Sept. 23-28, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Both candidates remain popular among their own party’s voters.

But in a state where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 2-1, just 14% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Hogan and 38% say they have a favorable opinion of him — two metrics that were higher during his winning gubernatorial campaigns and that he would need to improve to win again this fall.

“The voters that are most important to this election are the ‘Hogan Democrats,’ the folks that voted for him twice, that are mostly conservative, moderate Democrats,” said Mileah Kromer, who runs the poll as director of the UMBC Institute of Politics and who authored a book about Hogan’s electoral successes in Maryland.

A Hogan victory would require 25% to 30% of Democrats who vote to cast their ballots for him, Kromer and other political observers have said.

The reason he’s been unable to reach those Democrats so far is clear, Kromer said when looking at the polling results.

“The fact that so many Democrats are concerned about control of the Senate, I think, has just been a really defining feature of this race,” Kromer said. “That is what’s stopping folks who like Hogan, particularly Democrats. That’s the reason they can still like him but not vote for him, and that is the biggest problem that he’s facing.”

Democrats hold a 51-49 advantage in the U.S. Senate and face a tough electoral map this fall to keep their edge.

Alsobrooks has repeatedly stressed that a Hogan win could tip the scales in Republicans’ favor. Even former President Barack Obama, in a new ad for Alsobrooks, said “control of the Senate could come down to Maryland.” Hogan has responded that other states — where Republicans are more likely to unseat incumbent Democratic senators — will be the deciding factor, not Maryland.

Alsobrooks’ message has been dominant, the UMBC Poll indicates.

When asked specifically to consider the outcome of the race from a national perspective, 54% of likely voters said they want Democrats to win control of the Senate and 32% want Republicans to win. An additional 10% said they don’t care either way.

And in an open-ended question about why Alsobrooks’ supporters would pick her, a quarter said it would be because they want Democrats to keep the majority.

“That, to me, speaks to how well the Alsobrooks campaign and some of the outside money has framed this issue for Democratic voters,” Kromer said. “It’s in all of their outreach. It’s in all of their social media posts, all of their campaign ads, all of her stump speeches. I mean, everything you hear is very much about the control of the Senate.”

Underscoring that point was a new Alsobrooks television ad out Tuesday featuring multiple former Hogan voters who said they’d now vote for her to avoid Republicans from taking the majority, which they said could mean enacting policies that ban abortion, tax cuts for corporations and the appointment of “extreme” U.S. Supreme Court justices.

“I voted for Larry Hogan before, but no way this time,” Joe Palka, of Gaithersburg, said in the ad.

Aside from the bigger picture in the Senate, about half of voters who said they’ll vote for Alsobrooks attributed their vote to their positive views of her, the Democratic Party or the party’s policies. An additional 12% said their vote was in opposition to Hogan and Republicans, and 7% said it was because of her views toward reproductive rights and abortion.

Alsobrooks, a 14-year veteran of elected office who is now in her first statewide campaign, is viewed favorably by half of all likely voters.

Hogan still maintains an overall 54% favorability among all voters, and 84% of his supporters said they’d cast their vote for him because they supported or had positive views of him, the Republican Party or Republican policies.

“He’s still pretty popular,” Kromer said. “I never discount somebody who has been twice-elected and then still maintains a 55% approval rating.”

The results come just before Thursday’s lone debate in the Senate race. Moderated by NBC News chief political analyst Chuck Todd, the debate will be recorded at 1 p.m. and air from 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. It will be broadcast on Maryland Public Television, WBAL-TV and WBAL-AM in Baltimore, and WRC-TV in Washington, D.C.

Other poll findings

In the other top-of-the-ticket race this fall, Maryland voters are backing Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris over former Republican President Donald Trump, 57% to 35%, the poll found.

If that split holds or widens slightly in the final four weeks of the race, it would be similar to Democratic President Joe Biden’s overwhelming win against Trump in Maryland four years ago.

Harris is viewed favorably by 58% and unfavorably by 41% of Maryland likely voters. Trump is viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 61%.

“He’s a deeply unpopular figure among Democrats in Maryland and nationwide, but specifically to Maryland,” Kromer said.

Voters were also surveyed on the only statewide referendum this fall: a ballot question about amending the state constitution to include the right to reproductive freedom, including access to an abortion.

Just under 70% of likely voters support the amendment and 21% oppose it, the survey found, echoing previous sentiments among Maryland voters both before and after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.

Abortion is a “major or critical issue” for 57% of Marylanders when determining how to vote, which was in line with responses to other issues like health care, gun control, economic development and taxes, according to the poll.

Got a news tip? Contact Sam Janesch at sjanesch@baltsun.com, 443-790-1734 and on X as @samjanesch.