The National Federation of Independent Business released its October Small Business Optimism Index, showing a slightly brighter outlook on Main Streets.

Small business owners “were a bit more optimistic,” said NFIB Executive Director of Research Holly Wade.

The Optimism Index rose 2.2 points in October to 93.7, tied for the highest reading in the last two years. But the index remains below the 50-year average of 98.

Meanwhile, the NFIB Uncertainty Index reached an all-time high.

Wade said uncertainty is one of the worst things for small business owners, but the spike in the October survey was “overwhelmingly related to the election.”

“So, a lot of that’s been resolved,” she said. “The Uncertainty Index is likely even now down to more normal levels.”

Small business owners were anxious about changes in regulations and tax policies.

“But small business owners are anticipating that they will certainly be able to continue in the same environment for the most part that they’re in right now, which is lower federal taxes on business income, that 20% small business tax deduction that’s been so beneficial for them, and having those provisions continue going forward,” Wade said.

The NFIB’s survey includes companies across a broad scope of industries. The NFIB has collected small business economic trends data with quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986.

Wade said the new report showed small business owners were mostly more optimistic about business conditions in the next six months. More owners thought business conditions would be better than worse.

Sales expectations improved, even though actual sales fell slightly, she said.

“But looking forward into the holiday season, more small business owners were optimistic about what they saw as far as a pickup in customer spending on their goods or services,” she said.

Inflation was cited as the top concern by small business owners. Nearly a quarter of small business owners picked inflation as their most important problem, essentially unchanged from last year. But fewer owners are planning to increase prices in the next quarter.

“It does appear that over the last year, their pressure points of absorbing those costs and passing them on to customers have eased a bit,” Wade said.

Labor quality was the No. 2 problem, mentioned by a fifth of business owners. Hiring problems have eased, Wade said. But employee retention remains a struggle for many small businesses. Some sectors, such as construction and transportation, are struggling to find workers more than others.

Of the 53% of small business owners hiring or trying to hire in October, 87% reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill, according to the NFIB.

Wade said the labor market remains tight, but it’s getting back to pre-pandemic conditions. Job gains last month were much lower but also heavily impacted by hurricanes.

The unemployment rate remained at a low 4.1%, but other cracks have emerged in America’s strong job market. Economists have raised concerns over the number of “discouraged workers” and long-term unemployed Americans, and the hiring rate has dropped.

It has become harder to find a job, labor economist Aaron Sojourner said last month.

Small businesses are responsible for about half of job creation. But when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to tame inflation, small businesses might have found it harder to expand.

“Those are the ones who don’t have a lot of capital, who are probably hunkering down,” said Colorado State University economist Stephan Weiler. “And without the small businesses picking up workers, the labor market isn’t as healed as we might expect.”

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