With just six weeks go to before Baltimore's highly competitive Democratic mayoral primary, a new poll from The Sun and University of Baltimore shows some movement in a race that had been stable for months. Sen. Catherine Pugh, who has shown real fundraising and organizational strength, has pulled even with longtime front-runner former mayor Sheila Dixon. Here's a peek at what these results tell us about how this race could play out.

Dixon is strong but not unbeatable

When The Sun and UB first polled on this race in November, Ms. Dixon was leading the pack with 24 percent of the vote. In January, when Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies found her in the lead with 27 percent — statistically speaking, no different from The Sun's results. The new Sun/UB poll still has her at 24 percent. Her support is solid; those who support her were less likely by far than the backers of any other candidate to say they might change their minds.

But her support isn't growing either. And this survey underscored the idea that it will need to grow in order for her to reclaim her old job. Despite the large number of compelling candidates in the race, Ms. Pugh has already consolidated enough support to draw even with Ms. Dixon (statistically speaking), and there's room among the undecideds for another candidate to do so as well.