The events surrounding Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s recent refusal to accept repatriated citizens from the United States on Sunday is another touchstone in the ongoing handicapping of just how large President Donald Trump’s political cudgel is on the world stage. The global gathering this month in Davos was another good indicator where not one world leader took Trump on directly but rather made only passing mention of any potential clashes, particularly with respect to tariffs.

It’s clear Trump is adopting a hybrid version of one of his predecessors, Teddy Roosevelt, who famously coined the phrase “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” Yet here we are with this president vociferously yelling at allies and opponents alike, threatening through means such as tariffs with apparent little consideration given to the consequences.

How long can this last? Is the threat of a tariff in and of itself enough to elicit behavior that’s more in line with U.S. interests? Will entire governments bend to this political firestorm? If the recent past is prologue, it’s fair to say the approach is working. For now. But for how long? And at what cost?

One of the great equalizers in this calculus is the economy both home and abroad. Like it or not, we are an interdependent ecosystem that drives this American titan. More than 70% of America’s economic activity depends on consumer spending. And if the past four years showed us anything, it’s that American families are price sensitive. So it stands to reason that even minor shifts in costs or even the availability of a particular good would be enough to create a ripple effect in communities throughout the land.

Is the Trump White House as well attuned to how the potential hardship caused by tariffs on foreign-made goods would play out at home? It’s not entirely clear that Americans are interested in paying more in order to send a political message to friend and foe alike that more of what families and businesses want must come back to the homeland. Yet it’s a gamble this president seems willing to take.

Still, it’s one thing to risk a trade conflict with Colombia over deportation flights — although with more than 1.6 million Colombians traveled to the U.S. legally last year (making it that country’s top travel destination) some U.S. companies involved in the tourism trade stand to lose if visa restrictions continue — it’s quite another to try to go Teddy Roosevelt on countries with much greater economic clout. Put Mexico high on that list with its $855 billion relationship with the U.S. That includes everything from vehicles to computer monitors, nuclear reactors and agriculture products.

Yet Trump administration officials insist that 25% tariffs on Mexico (and Canada) could be in place by Saturday. Does the new administration really have the appetite? And even if Trump is the one with the big stick, it’s likely that foreign leaders, including those in China and Denmark who facing tariffs threats as well, would not capitulate quite so quickly as Petro (whose country’s entire gross domestic product is roughly 1/74th the size of U.S. GDP).

We get that the protectionist types around Trump are willing to risk the turmoil and upset associated with dramatic increases in consumers prices. But one has to wonder just how average Americans would react to seeing a major price spike when the new administration isn’t even fully assembled yet — with Senate confirmation votes still to come. That includes Howard Lutnick, the billionaire chosen to head the U.S. Department of Commerce whose Senate hearing is scheduled to take place Wednesday.

As for those Colombian migrants, it’s also fair to question just how much further denigration will be tolerated in Bogotá and other Latin American capitals. While many undoubtedly are deserving of the denigration, like those accused of sex crimes and other violent acts, its worth noting that the worst offenders may get lost in the noise as leaders watch their countrymen get placed in handcuffs and transported in U.S. military aircraft. Again, those dramatics may play well with the crowd back home and the treatment may be justified for some, but they might just get Trump a trade war — and perhaps an economic recession — for which most of his fellow Americans likely don’t have the appetite.