Thanksgiving has come and gone, so it’s time to start thinking about the postseason.

Only six weeks remain in the NFL regular season, and while a lot can happen between now and when the wild-card round begins in January, the playoff picture is starting to take shape.

Here’s a look at the standings in the AFC through Week 12:

1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1), first in AFC West

Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, vs. Chargers, at Browns, vs. Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos

Playoff probability, per

Next Gen Stats: >99%

The Chiefs’ record is sparkling, but their play on the field has been anything but. Kansas City needed a last-second field goal to escape with a victory over the lowly Carolina Panthers a week after losing for the first time this season in Buffalo. The offense has struggled to generate big plays in large part because of a lack of speed. First-round receiver Xavier Worthy is not quite ready to be a No. 1 target, and while tight end Travis Kelce and wideout DeAndre Hopkins are reliable, they are diminished at their age. The offensive tackles remain a problem, prompting the signing of 30-year-old D.J. Humphries. Perhaps most concerning is a banged-up defense that has allowed 27 or more points in back-to-back games.

The quest for a third straight Super Bowl title will be extremely difficult for Patrick Mahomes and company.

2. Buffalo Bills (9-2), first in AFC East

Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, at Rams, at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots

Playoff probability: >99%This could be a breakthrough season for quarterback Josh Allen, who is the betting favorite to win his first NFL Most Valuable Player Award.

This was expected to be somewhat of a transition year for the Bills after they lost some big-name players in the offseason (notably wide receiver Stefon Diggs), but Allen has put the team on his back and is thriving under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Buffalo’s pass catchers are not exceptional, but they fit together well and have spread the wealth. Pass rusher Greg Rousseau has become a breakout star, and linebacker Matt Milano is expected to return soon as a key cog in the middle of the defense. This could be Allen’s best chance yet to win a title — especially if the Bills get the top seed and first-round bye thanks to their head-to-head win over Kansas City.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3), first in AFC North

Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Browns, at Eagles, at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

Playoff probability: 93%

Mike Tomlin is the early Coach of the Year favorite for what he’s done to get this team on top of the AFC North. Making Russell Wilson the starting quarterback over Justin Fields was not an easy decision, but it’s paid off so far — outside of a Thursday night loss to the Browns in a snowstorm. The big question is whether the offense is good enough to contend with the likes of the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens in the postseason. George Pickens is the only standout receiver, and Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are averaging just 4 yards per carry. They desperately need midseason pickup Mike Williams to help. Pittsburgh’s defense has been outstanding, but it’s carrying a heavy burden.

4. Houston Texans (7-5), first in AFC South

Remaining schedule: at Jaguars, vs. Dolphins, at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans

Playoff probability: 94%

A 5-1 start has quickly gone south, with a 32-27 loss to the Titans the latest stumble for a team that has failed to build on last season’s success. Second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud has been hurt by a poor offensive line and the absence of star receiver Nico Collins, but he’s also missed some throws he usually makes. It’s enough to have serious concerns about whether Stroud can lead Houston to its second straight division title and another playoff win. It’s a good reminder that success is not always linear in the NFL, even for star quarterbacks.

5. Ravens (8-4), second in AFC North

Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, at Giants, vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns

Playoff probability: 99%

They might be a wild-card team right now, but the Ravens have the look of a Super Bowl contender. Baltimore rolled to a methodical 30-23 win over the Chargers on Monday night that was much more dominant than the score might indicate. At one point in the fourth quarter, the Ravens were on pace to set an NFL record with a whopping 7.1 yards per play. Baltimore trailed 10-0 early, but a bold call by John Harbaugh to go for it on fourth-and-1 from his own 16-yard line paid off as the Ravens drove for a touchdown and never trailed again. Even the much-maligned defense stood its ground despite missing star linebacker Roquan Smith. The Steelers are a half-game up in the AFC North with a head-to-head win in hand, but the division race is far from over. This is the classic team nobody wants to play in the postseason.

6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), second in AFC West

Remaining schedule: at Falcons, at Chiefs, vs. Buccaneers, vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders

Playoff probability: 86%

Monday night was a chance for the Chargers to prove they were a legitimate playoff contender, and for stretches, it looked like they could be. L.A. raced out to a 10-0 lead behind a dominant opening drive, pounding the ball behind J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. But after that, they couldn’t stop the Ravens, who at point scored on five straight possessions. A knee injury that forced Dobbins out of the game looms large since the Chargers and offensive coordinator Greg Roman rely on the rushing attack to be successful. Justin Herbert is plenty good enough to carry this team to the postseason, but his supporting cast might hold him back.

7. Denver Broncos (7-5), third in AFC West

Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, vs. Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

Playoff probability: 73%

After a rough start, the Broncos and coach Sean Payton have settled into a nice groove with rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Denver almost upset the Chiefs a few weeks ago but responded to that heartbreaking loss by winning two straight over the Falcons and Raiders. Since Week 3, Nix has thrown 16 touchdown passes to just two interceptions, showing more command of the offense as Payton discovers what the six-year college starter is comfortable with. The defense has been the real star of the show, with Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss blanketing receivers and Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper leading a deep group of pass rushers that leads the league with 44 sacks.

In the hunt

Miami Dolphins (5-6), 16% playoff probability: The Dolphins, whose game Thursday night against the Packers ended too late for inclusion in this edition, have been a different team since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned from a concussion, winning three straight games to put themselves back in playoff contention. Miami has scored 34 points in back-to-back wins, and Tagovailoa is leading the NFL with a 72.5% completion rate. Jaylen Waddle broke out from a deep slumber with 144 receiving yards against the Patriots. If Tagovailoa stays healthy and former Ravens assistant Anthony Weaver’s defense continues to play well, the Dolphins could be a scary wild-card team.

Indianapolis Colts (5-7), 21% playoff probability: Second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson has had an up-and-down season, but he’s played much better since being benched for two games in favor of veteran Joe Flacco. A soft schedule to end the season, including matchups against the Patriots, Titans, Giants and Jaguars, could give the Colts a chance to catch the slumping Texans and compete for the AFC South title.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-7), 13% playoff probability: It would probably take the Bengals going at least 5-1 down the stretch to have any chance of sniffing a playoff berth, but don’t put it past Joe Burrow and company. The star quarterback is putting up MVP-worthy numbers throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, reaching a new level of command and comfort in the pocket in his fifth season. The Bengals’ defense keeps letting the team down in big games, but a slate of matchups against mediocre offenses in Pittsburgh, Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland and Denver might give Cincinnati a chance to simply outscore opponents and make an improbable run.

Have a news tip? Contact sports editor C.J. Doon at cdoon@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/CJDoon.