When the Orioles wrapped up the 2022 season, a new reality was clear: The rebuild was over.

After selling at the trade deadline one last time, the club finished strong to give the Orioles their first winning season in six years. Executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias and the Orioles’ front office then shifted their calculus to prioritize win-now moves, dipping into free agency and trading from their deep prospect pool to capitalize on a promising competitive window propped open by its core of young stars.

Two years in, the rebuild has translated into regular-season success. The Orioles have won 90-plus games in back-to-back years for the first time since 1982 and 1983, taking the American League East division title in 2023 and claiming a wild-card spot this year. Former top prospects Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, Grayson Rodriguez and Colton Cowser have emerged as quality major leaguers. By all accounts, the rebuild was a success.

What has eluded them thus far is winning in the postseason. The Orioles have been swept out of the playoffs twice in a row, first by the Texas Rangers in the AL Division Series and then earlier this month when the Kansas City Royals dispatched with them in the wild-card round.

“We have a really good team,” first baseman Ryan Mountcastle said after the Orioles’ season-ending loss to the Royals on Oct. 2. “It shows in our record during the year. Unfortunately, the last two years, just haven’t been able to put it together in the playoffs. Hopefully, next year we can make it and try and make a run. That’s all you can do.”

As disappointing as these finishes have been for Baltimore, a 2024 World Series title would’ve represented an impressive leap matched only once since full-scale rebuilds became an accepted team-building strategy in the mid-2010s.

When done right, a rebuild can set up an organization to compete for anywhere from five to seven years while its young core is signed to rookie contracts. It then takes some combination of aggressive spending and savvy player development to keep that competitive window open for longer. Over the past decade, four of baseball’s championship winners have climbed out of a rebuild and won the Commissioner’s Trophy with a core of young players: The 2015 Royals, 2016 Chicago Cubs, 2017 Houston Astros and 2021 Atlanta Braves.

Among those teams, only the Cubs won it all within two years of their rebuild. The Royals and Astros achieved the feat in three while the Braves needed four years to win it all. While the Orioles aren’t behind by those standards, all four teams advanced in the playoffs at least once in a previous season before putting together their World Series run. It’s a hump the Orioles would have to skip if they hope to go all the way in Year 3.

As for the personnel, here’s a look at each of their cores of under-30 players compared to the young roster Baltimore has heading into the offseason:

2015 Royals: C Salvador Perez (then-25 years old), 1B Eric Hosmer (25), SS Alcides Escobar (28), 3B Mike Moustakas (26), OF Lorenzo Cain (29), SP Yordano Ventura (24) and SP Danny Duffy (26) combined for 19.7 wins above replacement (WAR) in their championship season by FanGraphs’ estimation.

2016 Cubs: C Willson Contreras (24), C/OF Kyle Schwarber (23), 1B Anthony Rizzo (26), SS Addison Russell (22), 3B Kris Bryant (24), INF Javier Báez (23) and SP Kyle Hendricks (26) combined for 25.1 WAR.

2017 Astros: 2B Jose Altuve (27), SS Carlos Correa (22), 3B Alex Bregman (23), OF George Springer (27), SP Dallas Keuchel (29) and SP Lance McCullers (23) combined for 26.8 WAR.

2021 Braves: 2B Ozzie Albies (24), SS Dansby Swanson (27), 3B Austin Riley (24), OF Ronald Acuña Jr. (23), SP Max Fried (27) and SP Ian Anderson (23) combined for 22 WAR.

2025 Orioles: C Adley Rutschman (27), 1B Ryan Mountcastle (28), 2B/3B Jordan Westburg (26), SS Gunnar Henderson (23), OF Colton Cowser (25), SP Grayson Rodriguez (25) and SP Kyle Bradish (28) combined for 22.5 WAR this season.

The Orioles are already getting a comparable level of production out of their young stars, and could soon receive even more if prospects Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad establish themselves in the majors next year. Their stable of young players is the envy of any sensible general manager in baseball and it has them in position for several chances at joining this group before their window closes.

“We have developed a young core that is and remains very talented, and many, many, many of those guys had great seasons and that is going to continue to be the backbone of this team,” Elias said in his end-of-season news conference of whether the Orioles need a greater veteran presence.

“I don’t see any way that that changes, this young core that we have selected and brought along. We believe so heavily in this group and other people believe so heavily in this group, and with good reason. These players are good and they’ve done a lot but we will, to your question, we’ll take a look at that, this month, this week, this winter. We’ll see what we end up doing but certainly not immune to that thought and we’ll be putting it into our processes as we talk the next couple weeks.”

The big difference between these World Series-winning teams and the Orioles, however, is how much players over 30 years old contributed to their rosters. Baltimore’s players 30 and older compiled 8.5 WAR this season, a total that falls short of all four World Series winners.

The Cubs lead the way with 24.8 WAR thanks to their splashy acquisitions of Jon Lester, Ben Zobrist and Dexter Fowler and their development of Jake Arrieta into a Cy Young Award contender. The Astros (14.8), Braves (12.2) and Royals (10.4) all reached double digits, with names such as Justin Verlander, Freddie Freeman and Alex Gordon providing significant value to their clubs.

While Verlander was a midseason trade acquisition by Houston, Freeman and Gordon were holdover stars from previous eras who signed long-term extensions to remain with their teams. The Orioles made a move similar to the former by acquiring Corbin Burnes, but he isn’t long for free agency. A departure by Anthony Santander would leave the Orioles without the latter, putting pressure on their front office to bolster their roster either by continuing to trade prospects away or increasing their spending under new owner David Rubenstein.

“I would be pretty confident that we’re going to keep investing in the major league payroll given what we’ve got here and the upward slope that we hope to get back on,” Elias said. “We’ll see what happens. We’re going to be smart about it. And if it doesn’t happen for some reason, it’s not going to be because the financial support wasn’t there.”

In addition to providing value throughout the season, those veterans also boasted significant playoff experience. The Orioles have Zach Eflin, utility man Emmanuel Rivera and a few veteran relievers who have been part of deep playoff runs, but they’re the only players on their roster heading into the offseason who have won a series in October before.

The Orioles’ core is still on schedule. History suggests that impactful veteran additions are just as important in raising up a young team from a rebuild to World Series winner.

Have a news tip? Contact Matt Weyrich at mweyrich@baltsun.com