At this point, there is no Victor Wembanyama in this season’s NBA rookie class. There is no Paolo Banchero. And there’s no Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, Karl-Anthony Towns, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, Blake Griffin, Brandon Roy, Derrick Rose or Chris Paul, either.
They were all unanimous, or just about unanimous, rookie of the year selections. Everybody knew long before the ballots were cast who was going to win the award that season. There was no mystery.
If this season’s voting was held today, good luck figuring out what would happen.
No rookie has emerged as the leader of this year’s class.
There isn’t a single first-year player on pace to average 15 points and appear in enough games to qualify for the league’s leaderboard; the last time that happened was 2016-17. And right now, according to BetMGM Sportsbook, the favorite to win rookie of the year is someone who has started four games all season, all of them in the last week or so — the Heat’s Kel’el Ware.
“It means I’m doing something right on the court,” Ware said.
He’s not wrong, but it also speaks to how nobody in this rookie group has stepped to the front of the class, either.
Here were the current leaders in terms of rookie of the year odds, according to BetMGM, as of Monday night: Ware (+200) tops the list, the Spurs’ Stephon Castle (+275) is second, and Grizzlies’ Jaylen Wells and Wizards’ Alexandre Sarr (both +350) are tied for third.
Grizzlies center Zach Edey (+1400) is fifth. After that, everyone is at least 40-1 at this point.
If Castle wins, the Spurs would have done something that’s been managed only once in the last half-century — having back-to-back rookies of the year. It happened in 2015 and 2016 when Andrew Wiggins and Towns won for the Timberwolves.
“He really has a chance to be special,” Paul said of Castle, his Spurs teammate.
Ware is clearly developing as the season goes along. The center out of Indiana didn’t have his first double-figure scoring game for the Heat until Jan. 1. He had three consecutive 20-point games last week — the push that vaulted him into the favorite spot on the BetMGM rookie board — but still wasn’t on the initial list for All-Star weekend in San Francisco for the Rising Stars games.
It’s all happened very quickly for Ware.
A couple weeks ago, he wasn’t even seeming like a legit rookie of the year candidate — much less the favorite.
“Believe it or not, he’s been ready since he came here,” Heat teammate Tyler Herro said. “When he wasn’t in the rotation, he was just overly communicative about how he wants to be in the rotation and how he feels like he can help. I always felt like he could help.
“And now, him just getting his opportunity, I think everybody is starting to see what he’s capable of.”
If nothing else, there might be a real rookie of the year race when it’s time to vote in April.
There have been very few of those in the last couple decades — with the majority of the winners in that span getting 90% or more of the first-place votes.
Nobody is dominant in this class, yet. That might make award season very interesting.