Take your time, protect your dime
Let’s say we have a stack of $400 in a $1-$2 no-limit game. An opponent makes it $10, there’s one caller, we make it $40 with K
The flop comes 3
What now?
Our goal is to protect our stack if we’re behind while giving ourselves an opportunity for profit if we’re ahead. We must consider our opponent’s hand range based on what we already know, and we hope we’ll position ourselves to find out more. If we raised and our opponent did have a 3, he’d get all his chips in on the flop, and if he didn’t have a 3, he might fold a hand that we beat. So raising is not optimal unless we know this player might overvalue a pair.
The exception would be if we had larger stacks and could make a “polarizing” reraise, in which case our opponent’s response would make it clear whether we’re ahead or behind, as lesser hands would have a hard time committing more on a bluff or draw on a paired board. With our $400 stack, we can’t do this, as we’d be committing too much money to allow for a fold.
I know what you’re thinking: “What if our opponent has a flush draw or an ace? If we don’t raise, we give him a chance to hit it.” This is a 6 percent to 18 percent chance we have to take, as that ace hand could pay us more money by continuing to bluff, and there’s a far greater chance our opponent has a pair. If our opponent has a flush draw, he’s probably not folding to any raise, and we’re a coin flip to win if he holds an ace with two cards to come. So we do not raise; we call.
By calling, we might slow down our opponent in case we’re behind. If the turn brings a third club, our opponent could check or bet fearfully small. Plus, we have outs. If the turn and river put a four-card straight on the board, an opponent with trips would slow down considerably as well. Each scenario could “save us money,” as opposed to getting it all in on the flop.
If we’re ahead and we check behind a turn check, our opponent is likely to make a river bet, which we’ll call. Value gained. If we’re ahead, and he bets on the turn and we call, we still get our value and likely won’t face a difficult river decision.
Too often we overcommit ourselves on the flop and offer up our entire stack to hands that beat us, or we scare away good money by raising when we’re ahead. There’s a reason good players like to play to the river, as there’s more information and greater opportunity to know where you stand. Also, you can often feel how confident your opponent is with his hand as the board changes.
This is poker; there’s no rush. If you allow yourself the opportunity to protect your stack while still leaving room for value, you’ll be more successful in the long run.