The Ravens blew past the hapless Giants, 35-14. The Steelers were pummeled by the Eagles, 27-13.
Who will have the advantage when these AFC North rivals meet Saturday with divisional supremacy hanging in the balance?
Ravens passing game vs. Steelers pass defense
Lamar Jackson delivered a near-perfect performance (21-of-25, 290 yards, five touchdowns) against the Giants, adding to the best passing season of his career. He leads the league in passer rating and yards per attempt, with 34 touchdown throws and just three interceptions. But Pittsburgh’s defense is one of the few hills the two-time Most Valuable Player has not surmounted. Jackson completed just 16 of 33 and threw an interception in the Ravens’ 18-16 loss to the Steelers last month. His passer rating that day, 66.1, was nearly identical to his career mark against Pittsburgh. He’s 2-5 in seven career starts against the Ravens’ archrival.
The Steelers don’t throw many blitzes at him, trusting edge rushers T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig and interior star Cam Heyward to pressure without aid from extra bodies. The Steelers also rank first in the league with 30 takeaways. A key part of Watt’s greatness is his gift for knocking the ball loose; he leads the league with 18 tackles for loss and six forced fumbles. He injured his ankle against the Eagles but appears on track to play Saturday.
The Ravens’ offensive line did not play terribly in Pittsburgh, but this will be another major test for a group that has delivered uneven results over the last month. Rookie right tackle Roger Rosengarten is coming on, and right guard Daniel Faalele (questionable with a knee injury) has exceeded expectations as a pass blocker. On the left side, tackle Ronnie Stanley and guard Patrick Mekari have not performed as consistently as they did early in the season. The Ravens need to attack cornerbacks Joey Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson (questionable with a back injury), who struggled to cover Philadelphia wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith last Sunday. Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman combined for just four catches on 11 targets in Pittsburgh. Bateman is questionable after being spotted in a walking boot Thursday, while Nelson Agholor is also in concussion protocol. Tight end Isiah Likely led the Ravens with 75 receiving yards in that loss, and it will be interesting to see if coordinator Todd Monken makes a concerted effort to get his No. 2 tight end into the game plan.
EDGE: Even
Steelers passing game vs. Ravens pass defense
The Ravens did a good job denying Russell Wilson deep shots in the November matchup. He managed just 205 yards on 36 attempts and threw an ugly interception to Marlon Humphrey in the end zone. His top target, George Pickens, caught eight passes for 89 yards in that victory, but 37 of those came on one play. Pickens did not play against the Eagles because of a hamstring injury, and his absence left Wilson (14-of-22 for 128 yards in that loss) bereft of big-play threats. Pickens was ruled out again this week, which means Wilson will have to rely on wide receiver Calvin Austin III (16.1 yards per catch) and tight end Pat Freiermuth against a Baltimore secondary that has cleaned up its act in the second half of the season.
The Ravens finally pulled out of last place in total pass defense with a solid outing against the anemic Giants, led by safety Ar’Darius Washington and rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins. On the other hand, cornerback Brandon Stephens continued to struggle with a pair of pass-interference penalties, and it’s easy to envision Wilson picking on him with downfield targets.
Wilson holds the ball, waiting for big plays to develop, and the Ravens sacked him three times in Pittsburgh. They’d like to get more than 14 total pressures. A healthier Travis Jones, who played just 18 snaps in the previous meeting, will help, but the Ravens will need more production from their highest-paid defensive lineman, Nnamdi Madubuike, who wasn’t much of a factor. Pittsburgh right tackle Broderick Jones is a vulnerable target. For all Wilson has done to lift the Steelers’ offensive ceiling, they still rank just 15th in passing DVOA.
EDGE: Even
Ravens running game vs. Steelers run defense
Jackson made good on his promise to come out running more aggressively against the Giants, carrying four times for 55 yards in the first half. He’s averaging a career-low 8.4 attempts per game but leading the league at 6.4 yards per carry. The Ravens didn’t need to lean on Derrick Henry against New York, but this could be a big week for the league’s second-leading rusher, who has traditionally thrived in December.
The Steelers have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game and per attempt in the league and held the Ravens to 124 yards on 19 attempts in Week 11. Both Henry and Jackson were efficient, but they did not carry enough to dictate the flow of the game, especially in the second half, when the Ravens played from behind. Linebacker Patrick Queen played well against his former team with six tackles and a forced fumble. Watt is the rare edge defender just as capable of making a game-altering play against the run as against the pass. Former Ravens safety DeShon Elliott is another key thumper in Pittsburgh’s run defense, but he missed the Eagles game with a hamstring injury and is doubtful to play.
EDGE: Ravens
Steelers running game vs. Ravens run defense
The Ravens continue to allow the fewest yards per game and per attempt of any defense in the league. Nose tackle Michael Pierce came back from a calf injury with a strong performance against the Giants, and linebacker Roquan Smith appeared fully recovered from the hamstring injury that knocked him out of the first Steelers game and sidelined him for Baltimore’s Thanksgiving week victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Steelers were one of just four opponents to surpass 100 rushing yards in a game against the Ravens. They’re not efficient, averaging just 3.9 yards per attempt (the Ravens average 5.7), but they keep at it, ranking second in the league in attempts. Their 122 yards against Baltimore came on 34 carries, with running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combining for the lion’s share. Philadelphia’s mauling run defense rendered them non-factors as the Steelers went for just 56 yards on 17 carries. The Ravens would love to do the same and win the time-of-possession battle as handily as the Eagles did. If the game is close, they’ll have to account for Wilson’s backup, Justin Fields, as a running threat on key short-yardage downs.
EDGE: Ravens
Ravens special teams vs. Steelers special teams
This is the game’s biggest mismatch, with Pittsburgh’s league-best special teams unit pitted against the Ravens’ mistake-prone crew. Justin Tucker did not attempt a field goal against the Giants but did not flirt with misses on any of his five extra points. He has made 19 of 27 field goals, easily the worst accuracy of his glittering career, and the crowd at M&T Bank Stadium will grow tense if he lines up for a clutch kick Saturday. The Ravens showed signs of life in their return game against the Giants, with Justice Hill running the opening kickoff back 59 yards and new punt returner Desmond King II giving them excellent field position on an aggressive 22-yard runback later in the first quarter.
Pittsburgh kicker Chris Boswell has made 38 of 41 field-goal attempts, including 11 of 13 from 50 yards or beyond, and is one of the team’s most valuable weapons. Punter Corliss Waitman is also a Pro Bowl candidate. To top it off, the Steelers excel at blocking field goals.
EDGE: Steelers
Ravens intangibles vs. Steelers intangibles
It’s difficult to pinpoint why the Steelers have seized such firm control of the AFC North’s most enduring rivalry, but they have won eight of their last nine against the Ravens, none of those by more than a touchdown. Pittsburgh disrupts Jackson’s beautiful game like no other opponent, and coach Mike Tomlin’s team delights in winning ugly. The Steelers are underdogs on paper, but Tomlin will surely use that as another motivational tool in his team’s quest to clinch the AFC North in Baltimore.
The Ravens will come in healthier and better rested after enjoying their bye week and an easy win over the Giants. Coach John Harbaugh won’t need to remind his team that its only chance to capture home-field advantage in the first round of the playoff depends on beating the Steelers. The Ravens have fixed their defense on the fly, and Jackson is 67-24 as a regular-season NFL starter, but he and his team have much to prove against Pittsburgh.
EDGE: Steelers
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