To bet big,
or not to bet big
This particular hand took place with four players remaining. The blinds were 10,000-20,000 with an ante of 4,000, and Mizrachi opened for 40,000 under the gun holding Q
Action folded to Yachou in the big blind, and he reraised to 105,000 with A
Yachou made a continuation bet of 120,000, and Mizrachi merely called with middle pair and an open-ended straight draw.
The 5
Yachou checked, and Mizrachi feigned weakness while considering how much to bet. This is where the hand got interesting, and I felt it offered an ample opportunity for aspiring poker players to learn. Specifically, it provided an interesting lesson on how much to bet when you know you have a good hand.
There was no question that Mizrachi was going to bet. Only one hand could have beaten him — ace-jack — and it was apparent from Yachou's checks on the turn and river that he didn't have it. The question was, how much should Mizrachi bet?
Should Mizrachi go big, hoping his opponent either has halfway decent cards or might put Mizrachi on a bluff? Perhaps, but that would run the risk of Yachou tossing away his weak hands. Should Mizrachi bet small to ensure that he'd get paid? Not a bad idea, but often he'll leave value on the table, as Yachou could very well hold two pair, top pair with a good kicker, etc.
Unfortunately, there's no simple solution to the dilemma of how much to bet in a situation like this. You need to consider your opponent, his range of hands and his tendencies. Is he more prone to call or fold to big bets? Does he often try to catch other players bluffing? If you determine he's apt to make a big call, bet big. If not, downsize your bet to extract what you can from him.
Mizrachi went big by betting 300,000. Yachou deliberated for only seven seconds before folding. Had Mizrachi bet, say, 40,000, he'd have laid Yachou nearly 12-1 odds on his money. Yachou very well might have called with his pair of nines.
Of course, had Mizrachi bet 40,000 and Yachou called with a hand such as K-Q, Mizrachi would have regretted not betting more. This hand was a prime example of how bet sizing can really be a catch-22.