Almost every Maryland county shifted toward President-elect Donald Trump since 2020, though adjustments to the data are possible, given the estimated 19% of votes left to count in the presidential race, according to The Associated Press.

Maryland remains a deep-blue state, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump by 23 points. But of the votes counted so far, Trump made gains in every county, whether it had a majority of Republican or Democratic voters.

There are still several hundred thousand mail-in ballots left to count in Maryland, and national trends from 2020 and 2022 showed Democrats were more likely to vote by mail than Republicans. Meanwhile, other blue states that have counted nearly all their votes, including New York, Vermont and Massachusetts, are seeing a significant shift toward Trump.

Observers of Maryland politics told The Baltimore Sun the rightward trend indicates that Trump resonated with voters more effectively than Harris did, especially on economic issues. Although Trump’s gains won’t directly change much about Maryland politics, where Democratic registered voters greatly outnumber Republicans, the shift poses challenging questions to the Democratic Party nationally about what comes next.

“I don’t know that we should read this election as an enduring realignment of voters,” said Flavio Hickel, assistant professor of political science at Washington College. “I think it all depends on how Trump and Republicans govern, and how Democrats respond to the loss. Do they recalibrate? Do they create a sort of vision for the future that’s more compelling?”

The largest shifts toward Trump happened in Cecil and Calvert counties, where Trump increased his margin from 2020 by 16 and 11 points, respectively. Both counties voted for Trump in 2020.

Smaller, but notable, shifts occurred in the solidly Democratic counties of Baltimore City (5 points), Baltimore County (6), Howard County (8), Montgomery County (10) and Prince George’s County (7). The last two border the deep-blue city of Washington, D.C.

The results indicate Democrats have “soul-searching” to do, said Doug Mayer, a Republican strategist who served as communications director for former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan.

“In Maryland, you’ve got a Democratic Party that’s become more insular, that’s become very judgmental, whether it’s around policing people’s everyday language or their views on the First Amendment, and, in the process, has alienated working-class voters and then, particularly, men of all races,” Mayer said.

While changes may happen at the national level, successes like the election of Democrat Angela Alsobrooks to the Senate indicate Maryland Democrats will be running “full-speed ahead” from here, said Roger Hartley, dean of the College of Public Affairs at the University of Baltimore.

“There’s going to be some in the Maryland Democratic Party [who say] … ‘We’re winning and we’re doing better than we’ve ever done before. The rest of the nation: yikes. But we’re on the right track here.’ ”

Still, Maryland will feel the effects of the national debate about how Democrats can better appeal to working-class voters in rural areas, who almost completely back the Republican Party, Hartley said.

One problem for Democrats is a lack of vision, suggested Hickel — that is, a message that’s easy to understand and communicate at the “gut level,” and that unites various policy positions, he said. Instead, Democrats have offered more “piecemeal” solutions, such as immigration for Latinos, criminal justice for African Americans, or loan assistance for college students, he said.

“It’s not clear what the vision is that unites all that together so that people don’t see those as piecemeal reforms for a particular constituency, or playing identity politics,” Hickel said.

Examples of clear vision from the past would include Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal, Lyndon B. Johnson’s Great Society, or the ideals articulated by Ronald Reagan, Hickel said. “For good or for bad, agree or not — I think Donald Trump and ‘Make America Great Again’ offers something similar for his various constituencies.”

One question prompted by the new election data: Is the shift in voter trends about favorability toward the Republican Party generally, or Donald Trump in particular?

“Authenticity matters more than soundbites,” said Rick Abbruzzese, who served as director of public affairs for former Democrat Gov. Martin O’Malley. “It’s which candidate is connecting with voters and meeting them where they are. And for whatever reason, which we can debate, that candidate nationally was Trump.”

Republicans hope the rightward trend continues for future elections.

“I certainly hope that this is not a one-off,” said Nicole Beus Harris, chairwoman of the Maryland Republican Party. “I believe that we have started to change the foundation of the party here in Maryland over the last couple of years, and if we continue along this path that we’re creating, that it will be a more long-term change.”

Have a news tip? Contact Brooke Conrad at bconrad@baltsun.com, 443-682-2356 or @conrad_brooke on X.