As the Orioles circle the drain, it feels likely they will be sellers at the July 31 trade deadline.

That statement is shocking for a team that entered the season with playoff and World Series aspirations. But with a 20-36 record and 10 games out of a playoff spot, it’s difficult to envision a bruised and battered Baltimore team climbing out of this hole.

Assuming a miracle isn’t on the horizon, the Orioles could be MLB’s most intriguing seller at the deadline. Although, how far general manager Mike Elias goes in that pursuit — whether he will initiate a full fire sale — remains to be seen, and it’s possible that MLB’s compensatory draft pick rules for small-market teams like Baltimore could play a factor.

Most or all of the 11 Orioles players on expiring contracts could presumably be on the market.

But it’s mostly the Orioles’ four best trade chips who would be highly sought after at the deadline should Elias put them on the block. Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano, Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn — let’s call them the Big Four — are all either established big leaguers or in the midst of breakout campaigns.

But trading them isn’t as straightforward as it might seem.

In fact, the Orioles might be able to receive similar value by keeping them as they would by trading them.Each of the four players could end the season in a strong enough position to earn the qualifying offer (QO) from the Orioles should the club keep them. The QO is a one-year contract offer teams can extend to their free agents. The dollar value of the contract is predetermined by MLB; last year it was $21.05 million. The player can either accept the offer, or decline it and head to free agency. Players who are traded midseason and those who’ve received the offer before can’t be given the QO.

Here’s the kicker and why this could be a significant factor in how Baltimore approaches the deadline: Teams can then receive compensatory draft picks for players who reject the QO and sign elsewhere. This competitive balance measure was first put into the collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the players’ union over 10 years ago.

The rule is even better for teams like the Orioles. Most teams’ compensatory picks for QO players are either after the second or fourth rounds. But Baltimore, as a small-market team, is a revenue-sharing recipient, meaning its compensatory picks are both easier to obtain and earlier in the draft, either after the first or second rounds. If an Orioles free agent declines the QO and signs for more than $50 million in the offseason, Baltimore receives a pick at the end of the first round. If it’s less than $50 million, Baltimore receives a pick at the end of the second round.

Last year, the Orioles extended the QO to two players: Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander. Both rejected it — as most players do — and signed elsewhere for over $50 million. In return, the Orioles received compensatory selections at the end of the first round of the 2025 draft, picks No. 30 and 31 in addition to the club’s first-round selection at pick No. 19. Effectively, the Orioles will have three first-round draft picks this summer, which could help the organization restock a farm system that’s been depleted in recent years.

Under an unlikely (but still possible) hypothetical in which the Orioles keep the entire Big Four, they all stay healthy and play well, the club extends the QO to each of them and they all decline it and sign elsewhere, Baltimore would have a staggering eight selections inside the approximately first 85 picks of the 2026 draft: three regular picks (first, second and third round), the four compensatory picks and a Competitive Balance Round A selection.

Of course, there’s still four months left in the season, and how the Big Four perform will ultimately determine whether the Orioles deem it worthy to extend them the QO. Eflin appears to be a slam-dunk QO candidate if he remains in Baltimore. Sugano, Mullins and O’Hearn have all performed well this season and are on the path to receiving multiyear MLB contracts for the first time in their careers.

However, injuries or poor performance could certainly alter this projection.

One of the most important questions facing Elias at the deadline is whether the return he could get for a member of the Big Four is better than the value of the compensatory pick the organization would receive for the player leaving in free agency. That’s far from a simple calculation, and it will be done on a case-by-case basis. Perhaps Eflin, who could be the most sought-after member of the Big Four, would net the Orioles enough in a trade to make giving up a potential compensatory pick worth it. Maybe that seesaw will be weighted differently for one of the other Big Four players.

There are plenty of other factors that complicate this, too. While uncommon, it is possible for Elias to trade one or multiple players from the Big Four and still sign them in the offseason — essentially double-dipping by getting prospects at the deadline but still keeping that player for 2026 and beyond. Baltimore might be one of the only sellers this summer with legitimate assets to trade, which could increase the demand for those players.

Additionally, the Orioles are still theoretically in the middle of their championship window, and Elias could narrow his sights even more toward the short term with the increased pressure on him.

The players acquired at the deadline would be closer to reaching the big leagues than the ones drafted in 2026.

On the other hand, the Elias regime’s strengths are drafting and developing. These picks they could receive are similar to the ones used to draft Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo and others.

It could also be of value for the Orioles to keep at least some members of the Big Four to have a good second half once the rest of the roster gets healthy, gaining momentum heading into the offseason.

It’s easy to see the state the Orioles are in and assume the best path forward is for Elias to sell every player he possibly can, but the potential to receive compensatory picks raises the bar for what the Orioles would need to get back in trades this summer. Entering this year, no one expected the Orioles to be in this position.

But not managing this time period properly could set the organization back even further than it already has been this season.

Have a news tip? Contact Jacob Calvin Meyer at jameyer@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/JCalvinMeyer.