Nationwide, climate policies are systematically shutting down fossil fuel-based baseload generators without providing functional replacements. Maryland has been the national leader in shutting down baseload fossil fuel plants making the loss of firm generation capacity particularly acute. The likely consequence is either rolling blackouts or skyrocketing electricity costs. However, there are alternatives.

In 2024, Maryland’s Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) alternative compliance payments extracted $274 million in carbon taxes from the few remaining in-state fossil fuel plants. RGGI revenues are up 67% year on year and are used to fund Maryland’s many climate mitigation programs.

Remarkably, during 2023 Maryland’s entire fossil fuel industry generated 16.7 TWh (trillion watt-hours) of electric power. This suggests that the industry’s gross revenues, based on average wholesale prices, would be less than $600 million. This begs the question: How does a $600 million-a-year industry survive a $300 million-a-year financial burden when competitive plants across state lines do not have this burden? The answer is that they do not survive, it just takes time to die.

When a fossil fuel plant owner can no longer compete, they dial back on expenses to wring as much profit as they can out of a degrading capital equipment base before closing. Over the past decade, this is what happened to Maryland coal plants. The last and biggest coal plant, Brandon Shores, filed to close in 2025. But PJM, the regional system operator, concluded it could not let the Brandon Shores plant close and maintain system reliability. So, PJM keeps a zombie plant operational through a costly Reliability Must Run (RMR) contract, billing BGE ratepayers $250 million a year for as long as necessary to replace firm capacity.

How many years? And which plants are next? Today, Maryland has 11 fossil fuel units on the PJM deactivation list. The four largest have RMR contracts to keep operating. Maryland still has nine active natural gas plants, many of which have multiple generation units.

Maryland is confronted with unprecedented challenges and no good solutions. Our options are:

Do nothing

Today, Maryland policy is trying to shut down all in-state fossil fuel generators. PJM is trying to keep them viable to maintain system reliability. Regardless of who wins, BGE ratepayers will be the big losers.

Cancel RGGI and RPS

Mayland’s RGGI/RPS programs have done their job, coal is gone and natural gas is a cleaner interim fuel. Canceling RGGI/RPS would allow PJM markets to work. After Maryland builds clean firm capacity, then the natural gas plants can be shut down without harming system reliability.

Pursue a 100% renewables option

The 2019 Clean Energy Jobs Act tasked the Maryland Department of Natural Resources (DNR) to conduct a study on the path to becoming 100% reliant on renewables and report by Jan. 1, 2024. The study has been completed but DNR did not release results. Our own engineering analysis shows that for a closed system, with no imports/exports, the cost to maintain reliability with intermittent generation escalates exponentially beyond 25-30% penetration (by energy). A 100% renewable system, with storage, is an impractical option.

Import more electric power

Building more transmission to import electricity from out-of-state generators is not climate-friendly, leaves Maryland more vulnerable to the whims of others, and would be resisted by residents affected by the transmission. Transmission is a band-aid, the core problem is the lack of in-state clean, firm, baseload generation. Electrical power independence is a better strategy.

Build more natural gas plants to stop the RMRs

This is a practical near-term solution provided Maryland stops closing existing natural gas plants. It needs to be coupled with closing RGGI/RPS programs so that the PJM markets can work.

The nuclear option

Some combination of nuclear and hydroelectric power supports the world’s eight big clean grids. There is ample evidence that nuclear fission is safe, affordable and GHG-emission-free. With a closed fuel cycle and fast spectrum reactors, nuclear can be sustainable. According to the Energy Department, It will take six years to build a reactor, and there is a first-mover risk.

Externally imposed solutions

Deep rolling blackouts in the Baltimore/D.C. region are likely to be regarded by the federal government as a national security emergency. The federal government could step in, suspend rules and impose solutions that Maryland does not like. Maryland could lose the authority to choose electric power generation technology.

Maryland policy has created a slow-moving train wreck. The priority should be to stop making things worse. Our recommendation is that Maryland’s 2025 legislative session either cancel or dial back the RGGI/RPS programs, build some new natural gas plants and commit to building nuclear plants.

Alex Pavlak is a professional engineer, Severna Park resident and the chair of the Future of Energy Initiative, whose mission is to facilitate the development of sustainable, affordable clean energy systems.