NFL teams can’t win Super Bowls in September, but history suggests they can play themselves out of contention for one before the calendar flips to October.
Since the NFL playoffs expanded to 14 teams in 2020, 32 franchises have started the season 0-2. Only two of those 32 teams (6.25%) — Cincinnati in 2022 and Houston in 2023 — made the postseason. Just five of the 32 teams finished the season with a winning record.
Only three teams (1993 Dallas Cowboys, 2001 New England Patriots and 2007 New York Giants) have ever won the Super Bowl after an 0-2 start.
For the Ravens, Sunday’s collapse against the Raiders sets up what could be viewed as a must-win game against the Dallas Cowboys, who are early 1 1/2-point favorites in the matchup, next Sunday afternoon. Since 1979, only six teams have made the postseason after starting the season 0-3. Only one team since 2000 — the 2018 Texans — has made the postseason after going winless in its first three games.
No Super Bowl champion has ever started a season 0-3.
Ravens coach John Harbaugh didn’t share the same level of dread as the stats do when asked about the 0-2 start in Sunday’s postgame news conference.
“We define our season,” Harbaugh said. “We’re not gonna be defined by everybody that’s gonna say that we’re not any good. That we’re done. That the season’s over after two games. That’s what’s gonna be said, but they’re not here. They’re not inside. No one inside is going to say that.”
While Harbaugh can point to Cincinnati and Houston as recent examples of success after sluggish starts, a bad start is largely uncharted territory for the longtime coach. This season marks Baltimore’s first 0-2 start since 2015 when it began 0-3 and finished the season 5-11. There’s not much institutional knowledge about starting 0-2, although current defensive coordinator Zach Orr was a rookie linebacker playing on Baltimore’s 2015 team.
Outside of their 0-2 start in 2015, the Ravens usually start the season fast under Harbaugh’s watch. That’s been especially true with Lamar Jackson starting at quarterback.
Since Jackson’s first full season as Baltimore’s starter in 2019, the Ravens had been 8-2 in the first two weeks of the season. The lone losses came against Las Vegas in 2021 and Miami in 2022.
The Ravens squandered fourth-quarter leads in both of those defeats.
Sunday’s blown lead was particularly demoralizing, with Las Vegas having lost 49 consecutive games when trailing by 10 or more points in the fourth quarter. Baltimore led by 10 in the final quarter, with a 1-1 start well within its grasp. Finishing out the Raiders would’ve squashed September questions about qualifying for the postseason. Instead, players explained to reporters how they plan to rally after joining teams such as the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers with a winless first two weeks.
“There’s no way we should be 0-2, but hey, it is what it is,” middle linebacker Roquan Smith said.
Baltimore’s immediate path forward isn’t easy. The Ravens’ next two games (at Dallas and vs. Buffalo) come against 2023 playoff teams, and a road game against division rival Cincinnati follows.
Even with challenging games ahead and the meltdown against Las Vegas, the Ravens believe they can buck the trend by becoming one of the few NFL teams to start 0-2 and make the postseason. Entering Sunday, they had a 60% chance to make the playoffs according to ESPN Analytics and a 73% chance according to The Athletic — the highest among 0-1 teams.
“We’ve got to take care of our business, take care of our work,” Harbaugh said. “We know that we’re a good football team.”