Five things to keep in mind as the Kirwan debate unfolds
The next few months are make-or-break time for the ambitious education reform proposals championed by Maryland’s Kirwan Commission. Last week, the House speaker and Senate president named a study group to figure out how to divide the costs between the state and counties. They’ll do it under a shadow of uncertainty cast by Gov. Larry Hogan’s skepticism about the whole enterprise. In allowing legislation funding the first two years of Kirwan implementation to go into law without his signature, Mr. Hogan railed against the costs of the full proposal, predicting ruinous tax increases if it is ever fully phased in. He went further in a speech last week to the Maryland Free Enterprise Foundation, vowing, “Not a single one of those things is ever going to happen as long as I’m your governor.”
What now? Here are a few things to keep in mind as this debate plays out over the next year.
What the task force will do and what it won’t
The new Kirwan work group is finishing up the last major piece of its work, which is to devise new funding formulas for Maryland’s schools. Its purpose is to help equalize opportunity among Maryland’s communities while supporting the commission’s policy goals, like increasing standards in the teaching profession, improving early childhood learning and reorienting high school to better prepare graduates for college or a career.
What the task force will not and should not do is devise a proposal for how the state should come up with the money. Governor Hogan keeps complaining that the commission hasn’t proposed a way to pay for its recommendations, but that’s not its place. Deciding on tax increases or spending cuts is a job for elected officials, like the governor, legislators, county executives and local council members.
What we can afford
There is no debate on accountability
Mr. Hogan complained in his letter about this year’s Kirwan bill that the legislature hasn’t done enough to make sure the additional spending produces results. But legislators did agree to create the inspector general the governor wants to root out waste, fraud and abuse in school spending, and Kirwan has been premised on the need for a new level of accountability to ensure that school systems spend their funds on policies and initiatives that have shown the greatest success in boosting student achievement. There is simply no debate about that — just about how best to accomplish it.
What Hogan needs to decide
Democrats have super majorities in both chambers of the legislature, but history suggests that enacting major tax increases over a governor’s veto would be difficult if not impossible. When former Gov. Martin O’Malley introduced a major tax package in 2007 to pay for Maryland’s last round of education investments, it took nearly all of his political capital, and he barely prevailed.
When it comes to paying for Kirwan, Mr. Hogan holds the key, and that may present him with a political dilemma the likes of which he hasn’t seen. As early as next year’s General Assembly session, legislative leaders will likely push a new revenue package to begin funding Kirwan. And then Governor Hogan will have to start making some choices between education, the issue Maryland voters consistently say is among the most important to them, and taxes, the issue on which he was elected.