SARASOTA, Fla. — What if Tomoyuki Sugano is better than expected?

The discourse regarding the Orioles’ rotation — especially in the wake of Grayson Rodriguez’s injury — is assuming the group is inferior compared with the other teams in the American League East. The Orioles are without ace Corbin Burnes, and losing Rodriguez, a potential ace, for however long he’s out inarguably makes the rotation worse.

The Japanese superstar is a relative unknown in MLB, and a strong start to spring training doesn’t change that. But there’s no way to view Sugano’s first 10 1/3 innings this spring — including his 3 1/3 scoreless frames Friday against the Minnesota Twins — as anything other than a success.

“I’m not particularly surprised,” Sugano said through team interpreter Yuto Sakurai. “But this is my second outing against Minnesota. I changed things up, and things were working well. I’m happy with it.”

Sugano is a wild card in the Orioles’ rotation. Because he’s never pitched in MLB, it’s presumed that his floor is lower than other established big league pitchers. Perhaps he’s proved this spring that’s not true. After all, the 35-year-old right-hander is one of the most accomplished pitchers in the history of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

“I just don’t know if you ever know how it’s going to look over here,” manager Brandon Hyde said. “We saw the command on video, and our pro scouts saw a guy that had a lot of success in Japan. For me, this is what the scouting report said: A guy that’s going to have really great command and a good putaway pitch.

“He just knows how to pitch.”

But what if his ceiling is higher than expected? How then should the Orioles’ rotation be viewed?

Those questions can’t be answered until the season arrives and Sugano proves it in real games. And even if Sugano does overperform his $13 million contract, that doesn’t necessarily mean general manager Mike Elias couldn’t have done more this offseason to replace Burnes.

Each time Sugano looks like he did Friday, though, it provides optimism about the type of pitcher he can be and how he can elevate the Orioles’ rotation.

“I do feel a lot more confident,” said Sugano, who has struck out 11 batters and allowed only five hits this spring. “But more so better communication with the catchers. That’s what’s working right now.”

There isn’t much for Sugano that isn’t working so far, and perhaps the Orioles’ front office isn’t surprised either.

A shellacking in Sarasota

The Twins sent their B team, and the Orioles’ (mostly) A team took advantage.

Baltimore scored 10 runs between the second and fifth innings against Twins starter David Festa and two relievers. And it was the heart of the Orioles’ order that did the most damage.

Adley Rutschman and Colton Cowser both homered in the fourth inning. Tyler O’Neill went 2-for-3 with a double. And Ryan Mountcastle continued his scorching-hot week with a two-run homer in the second and a two-run double in the third.

“We did a lot of really good things offensively: ran the bases well … hit with some power, some nice situational hitting,” Hyde said. “All the way down the order, there were a lot of really good things.”

Those four sluggers are putting up stellar numbers this spring:

Mountcastle: .321 batting average, 1.054 OPS

O’Neill: .353 batting average, 1.068 OPS

Cowser: .393 batting average, 1.050 OPS

Rutschman: .370 batting average, 1.062 OPS

Before last week, though, Mountcastle was struggling at the plate. But he’s homered in each of his past three games to show he’s ready for opening day to go hit at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, where Mountcastle regularly mashes Blue Jays pitching.

“He’s had a heck of a week,” Hyde said. “It’s great to see him lay off tough pitches, get balls to drive and put great swings on ’em. This is the Mounty that we know. He’s such a threat at the plate.

“He knows the kind of player he can be.”

Work smarter, not harder

The Orioles want Jackson Holliday to be a complete player who does the little things right. His second at-bat Friday showed he’s buying into that plan.

Holliday, who’s attempted a few failed bunts this week, laid a perfect one down in Friday’s fourth inning. The 21-year-old led off the frame, and the Twins’ third baseman was playing in the 5 1/2 hole, leaving a bunt wide open. Holliday said thank you very much and cruised into first base.

“It’s something he’s been working on a lot,” Hyde said. “It needs to be part of his game. Tonight, it was nice to see him get a successful one down.”

Holliday, one of the Orioles’ fastest players, has the ability to create havoc by bunting. But proving he can do so might also force third basemen from playing in the hole, opening up more opposite-field hits.

Later that inning, Holliday attempted a steal of second base, and the value in that aggressiveness — another aspect of his game the Orioles are encouraging — proved itself a few batters later. Livan Soto grounded into a would-be double play, but Holliday was safe at second because he was taking off.

The inning would have been over when Rutschman came up with two outs and smacked an opposite-field two-run homer to left field. Two batters later, Colton Cowser clobbered a long ball down the right field line. The two long balls added four runs that wouldn’t have scored had Holliday not taken off earlier in the frame.

“He’s understanding the kind of player he is,” Hyde said earlier this week. “We don’t need him to hit for power. His game right now is going to be a game where there’s excitement. There’s going to be balls in play, hard line drives, ground balls, play really good defense like he can, be able to manufacture, steal bases, drag bunt.”

Holliday once again showed he’s capable of carrying out his skipper’s orders.

Climbing the mountain

Félix Bautista’s outing Monday was his worst this spring. His appearance Friday was perhaps his best.

Bautista looked closer to the dominant closer he was in 2023 before he underwent Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery. The 6-foot-8 right-hander retired the side in order on 18 pitches with two strikeouts.

Ed Smith Stadium doesn’t have Statcast, so exactly how hard Bautista was throwing is unknown. The stadium’s radar gun had his fastball mostly between 96-97 mph with a maximum of 98 mph. If that’s correct, that would indicate similar velocity to Monday when he averaged 96.7 mph and topped out at 98.5 mph while allowing three hits and two runs.

“I thought Félix was better this time,” Hyde said. “I think he got up to 98 [mph] tonight. Good to see him get a couple strikeouts. I think pitching at home helped a little bit. He’s been on the road the last couple times.”

Bautista has said he’s confident that he will be fully back to himself once opening day arrives. Hyde has yet to commit to him making the opening day roster, instead saying that the club will take it slow with their prized flamethrower.

A few more outings like Friday’s, though, and Bautista might be making the trip to Toronto later this month.

Have a news tip? Contact Jacob Calvin Meyer at jameyer@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/JCalvinMeyer.