The Orioles enter the 2025 season amid high expectations after making the playoffs in back-to-back years for the first time since 1996 and 1997. Postseason success has eluded the club so far in its competitive window, but the Orioles still boast one of the most promising young cores in the sport and the front office was busy this offseason addressing roster depth.

Before the Orioles take the field Thursday for opening day against the Toronto Blue Jays, beat reporters Jacob Calvin Meyer and Matt Weyrich give their opinions about how the 2025 season might play out.

What stood out the most during spring training?

Meyer: It would have been understandable for the Orioles this offseason to simply chalk up their second-half struggles at the plate as solely a result of regression and injuries. That would’ve been a fair conclusion. But they parted ways with two hitting coaches, brought in a new one and talked in camp about improving the offense. This team is going to hit a ton of homers because of the talent in the lineup, but all the talk this spring was about putting the ball in play more often, hitting line drives, walking more and being aggressive on the base paths. The Orioles are intent on improving their offense on the margins to make it one that’s both powerful and scrappy.

Weyrich: Adley Rutschman is doing more than just talking about putting last year’s disappointing campaign behind him. The Orioles’ franchise catcher was locked in at the plate this spring with a 1.033 OPS and three home runs in 16 games. He consistently hit the ball to all fields and his mechanical tweaks translated to fewer of the flyballs that last season were automatic outs. Even outside the batter’s box, Rutschman has drawn rave reviews for how motivated he was in camp. From this reporter’s standpoint, he seemed more relaxed in the clubhouse than he did at many points last summer. Whatever injury might or might have not impacted his performance is no longer a factor. It’s easy to see him bouncing back this year.

Which Oriole will break out this season?

Meyer: There aren’t many players on the Orioles who would constitute a “breakout” if they have a good season. Jackson Holliday is projected by ZiPS for 3.1 wins above replacement. ZiPS is projecting Heston Kjerstad to have a .778 OPS and 2.3 WAR. Those guys are expected to be really good for this team. So I’ll go with a deeper cut and say pitching prospect Chayce McDermott. The 26-year-old is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the minor leagues, punching out nearly 33% of all batters he faced in Triple-A last season. The Orioles’ rotation might have too much depth to make space for McDermott, but the bullpen already looks shaky and McDermott is due to get a shot in the big leagues in 2025.

Weyrich: He’s a rookie who has never thrown a pitch in the majors, so why can’t Tomoyuki Sugano be the Orioles’ biggest breakout player? Sure, he’s a legend in the Nippon Professional Baseball league who signed for $13 million this offseason. But the 35-year-old still needs to prove his arsenal can play at the MLB level after spending his entire career in Japan. With pinpoint command and velocity that really hasn’t wavered the 92 to 94 mph range he’s sat in since his early days with the Yomiuri Giants, Sugano has sneaky upside.

What player will make a surprise impact this year?

Meyer: This shouldn’t count as a “surprise,” but it would be considering how the past eight months have gone. Coby Mayo doesn’t have a direct path to playing time in Baltimore. He hit .098 with a 48% strikeout rate in a small big league sample and struggled in another small sample this spring. He expressed disappointment when he was optioned at the end of spring training and later walked those comments back. But Mayo is still one of the best power prospects in the minor leagues, and he will crush Triple-A pitching the same way he always had. To get a shot, he needs an injury to one of the three right-handed-hitting corner infielders on the Orioles (Ryan Mountcastle, Ramón Urías and Jordan Westburg). All three of those players spent time on the injured list last season. Two of them missed time with minor injuries this spring. If Mayo follows the trend of the Orioles prospects who came before, he’s not going to throw away the next shot he gets.

Weyrich: When a player gets into his late 20s, assumptions start to set in that they’ve already developed as much as they can. So, it might be a hot take to say the 29-year-old Dean Kremer can still take a step forward in 2025, but he’s already put together stretches that suggest the right-hander is capable of more than his career 4.28 ERA. Over his final 11 starts last season, Kremer put up a 3.71 ERA and 3.33 FIP while his splitter emerged as a true wipeout pitch. He did well to limit hard contact for most of the season and his strikeout numbers were up in spring — though his ERA was too. If he can carry over his second half into 2025, Kremer will be one of the most valuable starters on the Orioles’ staff to start the season.

Who will be the Orioles’ best starting pitcher by season’s end?

Meyer: This is the best question here because there’s an argument for essentially anyone in this rotation. Zach Eflin is the easy choice. The smart money might be on Grayson Rodriguez since some people have wrongly dinged his current and future value based on his injury this spring. But let’s go with the pitcher who is this team’s best starter when healthy. Kyle Bradish finished fourth in American League Cy Young Award voting in 2023, partially tore his ulnar collateral ligament that offseason and then somehow got better in 2024. Bradish was throwing harder, spinning off nastier breaking balls and striking out batters at a much higher clip. If his recovery from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery continues to go without any setbacks, he could come back in the second half and be this team’s best starter on a pitch-by-pitch basis.

Weyrich: After hyping up Sugano and Kremer in my previous two answers, it’s surely them, right? I am tepidly going with Rodriguez here, taking a swing at a pitcher who before suffering a triceps injury in camp had easily the highest upside of any starter on the Orioles’ staff. He will miss some time while he restarts his throwing progression, but Rodriguez still has a large runway to make a significant impact for this team. Injuries are the only thing holding him back from taking the final step toward developing into a true ace.

How many All-Stars will the Orioles have?

Meyer: Four, giving the Orioles at least that many for the third consecutive season for the first time in franchise history since 1970-72. It will be Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser and Ryan Mountcastle, whose first half might be so powerful that he hits his way into the Home Run Derby.

Weyrich: I will also go with four All-Stars, but my choices are Rutschman, Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Sugano. Westburg already made the All-Star Game last season and just needs to round out the edges of his game to vault himself into the conversation for one of the best young third basemen in the game.

Who will be named Most Valuable Oriole?

Meyer: This answer would easily be Henderson if the question were, “Which Oriole will accumulate the most WAR?” But that’s not how MVO voting works. Henderson will still have a stellar season, one worthy of winning his third straight MVO award, but he won’t be as otherworldly as last year. Rutschman, meanwhile, will get back to the player he was his first two seasons — and maybe even better. While Henderson will likely have the better numbers and higher WAR, Rutschman will win because of the narrative and how he changes this team’s complexion when he’s playing like himself.

Weyrich: It’s Henderson. I’m not worried in the slightest about the rib muscle strain that landed him on the injured list to start the season; he should only miss a week or so at most. Henderson is still only 23 years old and coming off the best campaign ever by an Orioles shortstop not named Ripken. Forty home runs is a realistic target as are 30 stolen bases, totals that would put him in a club that only Shohei Ohtani occupied last season. It’s always been Henderson.

How many games will the Orioles win? And how far will they go in the playoffs?

Meyer: Last year, I predicted regression would hit hard, the Orioles would win 88 games and make the playoffs as a wild-card team. Am I only mentioning this to brag about how I was spot on last season? Yes. But it’s also to inform folks who might not frequent this fine website that I am normally a pessimist, or in the case of last season a realist. That’s why it’s been notable to me all spring how bullish I am on this team, specifically the offense, which could be the best in baseball. The Orioles will go 94-68, make the playoffs for the third straight season and end their 10-game postseason losing streak. What happens after that is above my pay grade.

Weyrich: I predict the Orioles will go 91-71 for the second straight season in what will once again be a tough American League East. That will be good enough to land them a wild-card spot and they will finally break through with a postseason victory, advancing to the American League Championship Series before falling to the, gulp, Kansas City Royals.

Have a news tip? Contact Jacob Calvin Meyer at jameyer@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/JCalvinMeyer and Matt Weyrich at mweyrich@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200, x.com/ByMattWeyrich and instagram.com/bymattweyrich.