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President Donald Trump’s first weeks in office have resulted in a torrent of activity. Domestically, he has upended the federal bureaucracy, implementing innovative ways to cull the workforce while then following through with mass layoffs. But this is only one piece of the puzzle.
If one peels back the onion, one will find that he is moving quickly to reshape the world’s landscape with the intention of bringing peace to fruition throughout the globe. He might have aspirations to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, especially since he is probably not happy that his predecessor Barack Obama received it in 2009. Though Trump’s actions are unlikely to succeed in bringing about peace, examining his efforts with the understanding that he has his eyes on this prestigious prize gives us a sense of where he will likely go moving forward.
The first foreign leader Trump hosted at the White House upon taking office was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, signaling that the Middle East is a top priority in Trump’s foreign policy. He hosted Netanyahu to discuss the way ahead in the Gaza Strip. Part of Trump’s plan openly involves relocating Palestinians to two staunch U.S. allies with formidable military capabilities — Egypt and Jordan. If the Palestinians are relegated to only one location (the West Bank) with a minimal presence there, it is less likely that radicals will be able to rise up against Israel in the foreseeable future, and with Hezbollah all but marginalized, Iran’s ability to wage a proxy war against Israel is reduced.
Iran is reeling from military pressure and attacks exerted by Israel, U.S. sanctions, and a neutered state-sponsored terror network to do its bidding beyond its borders. With Trump’s staunchly pro-Israel stance, it will be more likely that Israel will launch a coordinated air strike using its own aircraft but with U.S. bunker-buster munitions to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. The window to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is closing quickly and action will have to occur sooner rather than later to destroy Tehran’s ability to do so.
With Jordan and Egypt, along with the ostensible ally of Saudi Arabia, it is more likely that these countries will be able to move forward with a peace agreement.
This brings us to the European continent.
Though our allies overseas don’t see things the same way as Trump, one thing is certain — the fight to repel Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is expensive; with estimates showing Ukraine’s supporters have spent more than $80 billion per year to aid in its defense.
If Trump can cajole Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into a peace settlement, he might be able to find agreeable terms to end the conflict (allowing Russia to retain Crimea and perhaps parts of captured territory in Donbas and Luhansk) while providing $300 billion in funds seized from Russian oligarchs to Ukraine for war reparations. These actions could result in a formidable European peacekeeping presence in Ukraine to serve as a deterrent against future Russian aggression. The key unknown is whether Zelenskyy and the other leaders in Europe would actually agree to these terms.
If Trump helps secure the cessation of the most significant war in Europe since World War II, it would be seen as a significant accomplishment on the part of the U.S. president. That said, Russia will still be able to claim victory, further solidifying Putin’s legacy on the world stage for being a strong leader and one that actually expanded Russia’s landmass. Time will tell if this peace lasts or whether it will embolden Putin to try for a second act. In the short term, however, peace might just occur.
What we have not seen Trump push for yet is an end to the Korean War. Technically, North and South Korea have been at war since 1950 when an armistice, not a peace treaty, was reached in 1953.
By extension, the United States is still technically at war as one of the belligerents. Though Trump’s relationship with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un waned toward the end of Trump’s first term, he could reignite his relationship with Kim.
Trump could borrow from his Israel-Ukraine playbook to pursue a formal end to the war among the countries of South Korea, North Korea and the United States.
If he is able to end the world’s longest conflict, now in its eighth decade, this would be very significant indeed.
As unlikely as it is to occur, if Trump is able to secure peace in the Middle East, Europe and the Indo-Pacific Region, he probably would be considered in contention for the Nobel Peace Prize. It’s clear from the whirlwind start to Trump’s term that he’s aspiring to it.
John Weaver is an associate professor of intelligence analysis at York College in Pennsylvania and is the author of “NATO in Contemporary Times: Purpose, Relevance, Future” (Palgrave Macmillan). He lives in Towson.