The Ravens will face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on Sunday night in the divisional round of the playoffs, setting up a showdown between NFL Most Valuable Player candidates Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen with a trip to the AFC championship game at stake.
Third-seeded Baltimore crushed the Pittsburgh Steelers, 28-14, in its wild-card game Saturday night at M&T Bank Stadium to advance, while No. 2 seed Buffalo easily dispatched the Denver Broncos, 31-7, a day later in Orchard Park, New York. That set up a rematch from earlier this season, when the Ravens blew out the Bills, 35-10, on Sept. 29 in Baltimore.
It’s also just the second time the teams will meet in the postseason, with Buffalo winning, 17-3, in January 2021, also in the divisional round, at Highmark Stadium.
Baltimore Sun reporters Brian Wacker, Childs Walker and Sam Cohn answer questions about the Ravens’ biggest concern, how they can slow down Allen, Baltimore’s vaunted running game and what will decide the outcome.
What should be the Ravens’ biggest concern against the Bills?
Wacker: Turnovers, penalties and giving up long passes. At this stage and with two teams fairly evenly matched, the margins are thin. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has been not only explosive and efficient this season, he has taken care of the ball well with just one interception since Nov. 25 and only four all year. But Buffalo’s 32 takeaways are the third-most in the league. Self-inflicted wounds have also hurt the Ravens, who finished with the second-most penalties in the NFL this season, in tight games. Lastly, though the Ravens dominated the Steelers, Pittsburgh did expose cornerback Brandon Stephens — albeit too little, too late — and a secondary that gave up some worrisome long passes.
Walker: Josh Allen the runner. The Bills don’t leverage Allen’s legs to create as many explosive running plays as the Ravens do with Jackson, but no quarterback is better in short yardage or in the red zone. It will be vitally important to force the Bills into third-and-long; otherwise, they will string together grinding drives. They’re nearly as good as the Ravens in the red zone because Allen, like Jackson, can win with his arms or his legs and is a genius at extending plays. After the Ravens dispatched the Steelers, Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said his defense simply could not account for Jackson’s ability to turn daunting down-and-distance scenarios into winning plays. The Ravens didn’t let Allen do that when they beat the Bills early in the season, but he’ll demand their full attention on every single snap in the rematch.
Cohn: Based on the most recent sample, a convincing wild-card round win over the Steelers, it’s the secondary. They’ve seen significant improvement in limiting explosive plays since Week 11, then looked vulnerable, particularly in the third quarter Saturday night. Brandon Stephens, Nate Wiggins, Tre’Davious White and Ar’Darius Washington all got beat at one point or another. “They found the weakness in the coverage, and we didn’t play it quite perfectly,” coach John Harbaugh said. “We have to chase perfection and play those things a little better.” Pittsburgh’s passing game wasn’t enough to sway the game. Buffalo’s could be.
The Bills were second in the NFL in scoring this season, averaging 30.9 points per game. How can the Ravens slow down their offense?
Wacker: Keeping Buffalo’s offense off the field by running the ball and controlling the time of possession is the first place to start. A mix of coverages, particularly with their dime defense, and postsnap adjustments to cloud the picture for Allen will also help, as it did the last time these teams met. But Baltimore will also have to keep Allen contained because, like Jackson, he’s at his best when he’s on the move. Giving up a big play through the air or on the ground when he’s scrambling could prove back-breaking.
Walker: The Ravens’ offense is their greatest weapon against Allen. Put simply, if Jackson and Derrick Henry hammer away and build an early lead, Buffalo will get away from the run-pass balance that makes it special. The Ravens beat the Bills with this formula in September, and they’re playing better now than they did then.
That performance was a rare bright spot for Zach Orr’s defense in a difficult first 10 weeks. The Ravens never let running back James Cook get untracked and kept Allen from breaking containment. Outside linebackers Odafe Oweh and Kyle Van Noy played great. Allen connected on one downfield throw at the end of a scramble, and that was it for explosive plays. The Ravens can’t count on holding Buffalo to 10 points this time around, but they don’t have to invent a blueprint for containing the AFC’s top scoring team, because they already did it.
Cohn: Perhaps it’s the obvious answer, but it starts with MVP candidate Josh Allen and his backfield counterpart, James Cook. When the Ravens beat up on Buffalo in Week 4, they held Cook — who’s tied with Henry with a league-high 16 rushing touchdowns — to 39 yards on nine touches, tied for his second-fewest this season. Similarly, Josh Allen’s 55.2% completion rate in that loss marks his second-lowest. Both teams have evolved since then, but slow down Cook and contain Allen in the pocket and the Ravens should warrant a Marlon Humphrey victory Instagram Live on the plane ride home. That, and if Baltimore’s offense can repeat its four drives of more than six minutes to keep the Bills off the field entirely.
Baltimore had 299 yards rushing in its win over the Steelers on Saturday and 271 in its blowout of the Bills in Week 4. Can the Ravens have that kind of success again?
Wacker: It’s hard to imagine the Ravens will gash the Bills on the ground to that degree again, but they’re certainly capable of putting up big numbers with Jackson and Henry in the backfield, particularly against a defense that played more nickel and dime defense than anyone this season. With that in mind, the Bills have also unsurprisingly surrendered several big runs, including an 87-yard touchdown to Henry that set the tone in their most recent meeting.
Walker: You can’t assume a team will run for nearly 300 yards, but the Ravens absolutely can control this rematch with their ground attack, which is more explosive than Buffalo’s or anyone else’s. The Ravens have faced talented defenses during their current five-game winning streak, and none figured out how to account for both Jackson and Henry. Two Hall of Fame talents is one too many, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken is creative about giving opponents different looks with his superstars. He also counterpunches with unexpected ball carriers. Who foresaw Steven Sims taking a handoff 15 yards to spur a scoring drive in the wild-card round? The one worry for the Ravens would be Buffalo jumping to an early lead. If that happens, Baltimore cannot panic and go away from its bread and butter.
Cohn: That kind of production isn’t exactly commonplace. Baltimore went over 270 yards twice this season, then again in the wild-card round. However, the Jackson and Henry read option makes anything possible. It is an unstoppable wrinkle in Monken’s offense. How many times have you been watching the Ravens and found your eyes following Henry when Jackson still has the ball, or vice versa?
What will ultimately decide the winner?
Wacker: On a simplistic level, the team that doesn’t turn the ball over and finishes off drives with touchdowns. In the latter’s regard, both teams are well-equipped, with the Ravens ranking first in red zone scoring and the Bills second. For the Ravens to advance to their second straight AFC title game, they’ll not only need to avoid turnovers, but they’ll have to run the ball well, control the clock and wear down the Bills.
Walker: Which team starts quicker. These are evenly matched foes with balanced offenses led by generational playmakers who don’t make many mistakes. But the Ravens showed how difficult they could be for the Bills when they built a three-score lead before halftime in September. The Ravens could again be without No. 1 wide receiver Zay Flowers, who would be one of their top playmakers in a come-from-behind scenario. They’ll be much better off if they can dictate flow with their running game, as they did in the first matchup and in their wild-card win over the Steelers. On the flip side, Buffalo would love to discomfit the Ravens, who haven’t played from behind since their loss to the Eagles, with an early touchdown drive.
Cohn: What a treat for all of us if this game came down to the quarterbacks. Jackson and Allen are neck and neck atop the MVP discourse — even if the former leads the latter by most metrics. That narrative will dominate the week leading up to kickoff and likely the majority of the broadcast. It might get nauseating to hear. But it would be a joy to see Jackson and Allen both play their best football in a January shootout for a ticket to the AFC championship.
Have a news tip? Contact sports editor C.J. Doon at cdoon@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/CJDoon.